Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social said:

"COP30 leaves us between a rock and a hard place […] These NDCs have come in hesitantly, inadequately and unambitiously. They move the needle, but insufficiently to confidently avoid 1.5°C or even 2°C of global warming.”

There's lot to be worried and concerned about.

It is good to see that some things are gradually (but so incredibly slowly) moving in the right direction. /end

My last reflection on the scientific framing is a nice reference to the decade-long work we carried out as part of the @unep.org #emissionsgap report tracking mitigation progress and estimating global warming.
Those have been lowered from 4C per-Paris to 2.3-2.5C (or even a bit lower) today. /7

The next sections then reconfirm the Paris Agreement temperature goal, the Glasgow Climate Pact's resolve to focus on 1.5C, but critically also more openly discuss the risks of overshoot and the need to limit it. /6

The acknowledgement of the IPCC's centrality in providing the best available science of a nice shift from past years where it could even not be thanked for its work. /5

The decisions then start with a strong reaffirmation and commitment to multilateralism and the Paris Agreement.

Nice to read.
Would have been even better to see it lived. /4

It continues highlighting key mitigation benchmarks, including the remaining carbon budget, with numbers that seem terribly outdated.

Historical emissions in 2020 already added up to 4/5 (80%) of the total carbon budget for 1.5C with 50% chance.
Today, more than 95% of the 1.5C budget is used. /3

The preamble opens highlighting the current shortfall in emissions reductions, including a reference to how the world failed 5 years ago to close the pre-2020 gap, a reference to the reductions expected from developed countries, but not the 15-30% reduction below baseline for developing regions. /2

It has been a privilege to contribute to this report as a lead author for the 16th year running.

We explicitly highlight how delays in global emissions cuts mean that holding warming below 1.5C is not possible anymore.

The pursuit of limiting warming to 1.5C, however, remains imperative albeit from above instead of from below.

We show new NDCs lower the highest global warming projections but fall well short of limiting warming below 1.5C.

Grantham Institute Director of Research Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social was lead author on Chapter 4 of the report, which also includes contributions from Imperial’s Dr @robinlamboll.bsky.social.

Read the report in full here: ow.ly/V7Zy50XmtCz

In this context, this forthcoming @granthamicl.bsky.social shortfilm on the UK’s net zero journey will offer a timely reflection on how science, institutions, and politics aligned to deliver evidence-based #ClimatePolicy serving the public interest. 2/2
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