Jesper Asring Hansen
@jesperasring.bsky.social
Associate professor @AalborgUni. Public administration, policing, and field experiments.
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)
Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org
November 21, 2025 at 12:53 PM
NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Really proud of our new article in @apsrjournal.bsky.social!! @nicoravanilla.bsky.social @matthewjnanes.bsky.social
What does citizen contact do to police attitudes in conflict settings?
For those interested in bureaucrats, embeddedness, conflict, mixed methods: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
What does citizen contact do to police attitudes in conflict settings?
For those interested in bureaucrats, embeddedness, conflict, mixed methods: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
November 20, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Really proud of our new article in @apsrjournal.bsky.social!! @nicoravanilla.bsky.social @matthewjnanes.bsky.social
What does citizen contact do to police attitudes in conflict settings?
For those interested in bureaucrats, embeddedness, conflict, mixed methods: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
What does citizen contact do to police attitudes in conflict settings?
For those interested in bureaucrats, embeddedness, conflict, mixed methods: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Do architecture and urban planning affect political behavior? Happy to share a paper that @tesaliarizzo.bsky.social and I have coming out at the APSR which uses computer vision to investigate how the built environment shapes inequalities in civic participation in Mexico: osf.io/preprints/so.... 🧵1/5
November 8, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Do architecture and urban planning affect political behavior? Happy to share a paper that @tesaliarizzo.bsky.social and I have coming out at the APSR which uses computer vision to investigate how the built environment shapes inequalities in civic participation in Mexico: osf.io/preprints/so.... 🧵1/5
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
📄 New WP version out - full overhaul!
The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social )
Comments welcome!
🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...
The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social )
Comments welcome!
🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...
November 6, 2025 at 3:30 PM
📄 New WP version out - full overhaul!
The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social )
Comments welcome!
🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...
The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social )
Comments welcome!
🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
It's official: An American Problem (our book on the Voting Rights Act, preclearance, and the effects of Shelby County) will be coming out next year with Princeton University Press. As the VRA faces continued threats, we're hopeful it will offer insight into why the it's is so vitally important
October 28, 2025 at 3:16 PM
It's official: An American Problem (our book on the Voting Rights Act, preclearance, and the effects of Shelby County) will be coming out next year with Princeton University Press. As the VRA faces continued threats, we're hopeful it will offer insight into why the it's is so vitally important
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.
The New York Times Argues “Moving to the Center Is the Way to Win.” But the Data Shows the Strategy Is Tapped Out.
Democrats already run moderates in nearly every swing district. It's not enough. A data-driven response to the case for centrism as a core electoral strategy.
data4democracy.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:17 PM
My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
How common are “survey professionals” - people who take dozens of online surveys for pay - across online panels, and do they harm data quality?
Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
October 7, 2025 at 6:49 PM
How common are “survey professionals” - people who take dozens of online surveys for pay - across online panels, and do they harm data quality?
Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
This seems important in a world where so many countries are turning against immigration:
"A structural estimation of a model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the US since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5%."
"A structural estimation of a model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the US since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5%."
Forthcoming in the AER: "Immigration, Innovation, and Growth" by Stephen J. Terry, Thomas Chaney, Konrad B. Burchardi, Lisa Tarquinio, and Tarek A. Hassan. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Immigration, Innovation, and Growth
(Forthcoming Article) - We propose a novel identification strategy to isolate exogenous immigration shocks
across US counties, by interacting quasi-random variations in the composition of ancestry
acr...
www.aeaweb.org
September 29, 2025 at 2:47 PM
This seems important in a world where so many countries are turning against immigration:
"A structural estimation of a model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the US since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5%."
"A structural estimation of a model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the US since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5%."
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Do high workloads force bureaucrats to discriminate?
In a published paper at the @thejop.bsky.social, I challenge the dominant explanation of discrimination in public service delivery. Surprisingly, I find that bureaucrats are able to handle substantial workloads without discriminating.
In a published paper at the @thejop.bsky.social, I challenge the dominant explanation of discrimination in public service delivery. Surprisingly, I find that bureaucrats are able to handle substantial workloads without discriminating.
"Overburdened Bureaucrats: Providing Equal Access to Public Services During COVID-19" by Karoline Larsen Kolstad. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
September 16, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Do high workloads force bureaucrats to discriminate?
In a published paper at the @thejop.bsky.social, I challenge the dominant explanation of discrimination in public service delivery. Surprisingly, I find that bureaucrats are able to handle substantial workloads without discriminating.
In a published paper at the @thejop.bsky.social, I challenge the dominant explanation of discrimination in public service delivery. Surprisingly, I find that bureaucrats are able to handle substantial workloads without discriminating.
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Our article “Unsuccessful Candidates Are More Concerned About Electoral Fairness than Election Winners” is now online @thejop.bsky.social
Using RDD and elite survey data from Denmark, we show that losing candidates express greater concern about electoral fairness.
🔗 doi.org/10.1086/734240
Using RDD and elite survey data from Denmark, we show that losing candidates express greater concern about electoral fairness.
🔗 doi.org/10.1086/734240
September 12, 2025 at 6:51 AM
Our article “Unsuccessful Candidates Are More Concerned About Electoral Fairness than Election Winners” is now online @thejop.bsky.social
Using RDD and elite survey data from Denmark, we show that losing candidates express greater concern about electoral fairness.
🔗 doi.org/10.1086/734240
Using RDD and elite survey data from Denmark, we show that losing candidates express greater concern about electoral fairness.
🔗 doi.org/10.1086/734240
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Economic crises tend to favour the right. Voters tend to assign greater importance to issues owned by the right. When center-right parties preside over a crisis, voters often drift further rightward to nationalist parties rather than defect to the left onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library
How do voters respond to economic crises: Do they turn against the incumbent, reward a certain political camp, polarize to the extremes, or perhaps continue to vote much like before? Analyzing extens....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
September 4, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Economic crises tend to favour the right. Voters tend to assign greater importance to issues owned by the right. When center-right parties preside over a crisis, voters often drift further rightward to nationalist parties rather than defect to the left onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
A new @ajpseditor.bsky.social paper claims that building *any* public housing costs the largest incumbent party in 🇩🇪 municipalities around 0.5 % pts. I don't think this estimate is right. Alternative estimation strategies suggests effects that are between eight and forty times smaller (1/n)
New paper in AJPS uses German data to show that, despite housing shortages and rising rents, local governments constructing more affordable housing are often electorally punished. Electorate prefers municipal spending elsewhere (i.e. distributional conflict)
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library
Housing shortages and rising rents have increased demands for affordable housing. In this paper, we examine whether electoral constraints can undermine local politicians' incentives to build public h...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
December 28, 2024 at 3:50 PM
A new @ajpseditor.bsky.social paper claims that building *any* public housing costs the largest incumbent party in 🇩🇪 municipalities around 0.5 % pts. I don't think this estimate is right. Alternative estimation strategies suggests effects that are between eight and forty times smaller (1/n)
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
BBC International Editor Jeremy Bowen has confirmed that the entire Al Jazeera team in Gaza City has been killed.
August 10, 2025 at 10:33 PM
BBC International Editor Jeremy Bowen has confirmed that the entire Al Jazeera team in Gaza City has been killed.
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand:
$678M raised through those spam tactics
$282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies.
$11M to actual campaigns (1.6%)
The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.
$678M raised through those spam tactics
$282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies.
$11M to actual campaigns (1.6%)
The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.
The Mothership Vortex: An Investigation Into the Firm at the Heart of the Democratic Spam Machine
How a single consulting firm extracted $282 million from a network of spam PACs while delivering just $11 million to actual campaigns.
open.substack.com
August 3, 2025 at 5:02 PM
The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand:
$678M raised through those spam tactics
$282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies.
$11M to actual campaigns (1.6%)
The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.
$678M raised through those spam tactics
$282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies.
$11M to actual campaigns (1.6%)
The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
🧵Introducing the Trump Action Tracker website!
Today I’m launching www.trumpactiontracker.info - a live, searchable list of authoritarian‑style actions from Trump’s second term (over 740 actions so far). 1/14
Today I’m launching www.trumpactiontracker.info - a live, searchable list of authoritarian‑style actions from Trump’s second term (over 740 actions so far). 1/14
July 21, 2025 at 8:57 PM
🧵Introducing the Trump Action Tracker website!
Today I’m launching www.trumpactiontracker.info - a live, searchable list of authoritarian‑style actions from Trump’s second term (over 740 actions so far). 1/14
Today I’m launching www.trumpactiontracker.info - a live, searchable list of authoritarian‑style actions from Trump’s second term (over 740 actions so far). 1/14
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Analyzing scientists' biographies during the baby boom, we find that mothers have a unique life cycle pattern of productivity. Children reduce the productivity of mothers but not fathers, with important implications for promotions and participation. buff.ly/39WbYRH
July 14, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Analyzing scientists' biographies during the baby boom, we find that mothers have a unique life cycle pattern of productivity. Children reduce the productivity of mothers but not fathers, with important implications for promotions and participation. buff.ly/39WbYRH
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
@robmickey.bsky.social & @dziblatt.bsky.social let me post the working paper
Why doesn't police reform work? Because police depts can't credibly commit to their end of the bargain (doing more/better/riskier work in exchange for more $)
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/35o94...
Why doesn't police reform work? Because police depts can't credibly commit to their end of the bargain (doing more/better/riskier work in exchange for more $)
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/35o94...
July 10, 2025 at 4:28 PM
@robmickey.bsky.social & @dziblatt.bsky.social let me post the working paper
Why doesn't police reform work? Because police depts can't credibly commit to their end of the bargain (doing more/better/riskier work in exchange for more $)
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/35o94...
Why doesn't police reform work? Because police depts can't credibly commit to their end of the bargain (doing more/better/riskier work in exchange for more $)
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/35o94...
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting
The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior resear…
www.sciencedirect.com
July 9, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
The Democratic Tea Party is happening. But one key difference from the GOP Tea Party is the lack of a Fox News and big money to coordinate it. The Tea Party had a real grassroots element (sorry it's true), but coordination by media & Koch money was crucial
web.stanford.edu/~gjmartin/pa...
web.stanford.edu/~gjmartin/pa...
July 8, 2025 at 7:40 PM
The Democratic Tea Party is happening. But one key difference from the GOP Tea Party is the lack of a Fox News and big money to coordinate it. The Tea Party had a real grassroots element (sorry it's true), but coordination by media & Koch money was crucial
web.stanford.edu/~gjmartin/pa...
web.stanford.edu/~gjmartin/pa...
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
I’m currently building a dataset on police forces around the globe. No other country has a force quite like ICE (w/ broad enforcement powers, tactical gear, immigration focus); the most apt comparisons are to secret police in authoritarian regimes rather than border/immigration forces elsewhere.
@adamprz.bsky.social on ICE's authorities & operating procedures: "The comparativist in me wants to think about other police forces in history which had such broad and ill-defined powers. But such comparisons are too frightening."
WEEK 19
WEEK 19
adamprzeworski.substack.com
June 25, 2025 at 12:23 PM
I’m currently building a dataset on police forces around the globe. No other country has a force quite like ICE (w/ broad enforcement powers, tactical gear, immigration focus); the most apt comparisons are to secret police in authoritarian regimes rather than border/immigration forces elsewhere.
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
If the GOP reconciliation bill passes, ICE gets through FY2029:
- $45 billion for detention, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion
- $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million
- $8 billion for hiring/retention
- Billions more.
- $45 billion for detention, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion
- $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million
- $8 billion for hiring/retention
- Billions more.
June 28, 2025 at 10:07 PM
If the GOP reconciliation bill passes, ICE gets through FY2029:
- $45 billion for detention, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion
- $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million
- $8 billion for hiring/retention
- Billions more.
- $45 billion for detention, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion
- $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million
- $8 billion for hiring/retention
- Billions more.
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
The Trump admin in a nutshell; in order to justify their own mistake, they’re going to release a violent felon with five deportations so he can testify against the guy with no criminal record they mistakenly deported.
In other words, the story is always more important than the principle.
In other words, the story is always more important than the principle.
The Trump admin has freed Jose Hernandez Reyes because he can testify against Abrego Garcia.
Hernandez, who has been deported 5 times, has also been arrested for:
—DUI w/ a handgun;
—cocaine possession;
—illegally transporting migrants; and
—drunkenly firing a gun.
Free link: wapo.st/40i4Ttt
Hernandez, who has been deported 5 times, has also been arrested for:
—DUI w/ a handgun;
—cocaine possession;
—illegally transporting migrants; and
—drunkenly firing a gun.
Free link: wapo.st/40i4Ttt
Star witness against Kilmar Abrego García was due to be deported. Now he’s being freed.
Jose Ramon Hernandez Reyes is a three-time felon released early from federal prison to a halfway house in exchange for testifying against Kilmar Abrego García.
wapo.st
June 29, 2025 at 2:11 AM
The Trump admin in a nutshell; in order to justify their own mistake, they’re going to release a violent felon with five deportations so he can testify against the guy with no criminal record they mistakenly deported.
In other words, the story is always more important than the principle.
In other words, the story is always more important than the principle.
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Did some quick math and i think this would represent one of the most dramatic and rapid expansions of prisons/policing/paramilitary forces in world history.
If the GOP reconciliation bill passes, ICE gets through FY2029:
- $45 billion for detention, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion
- $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million
- $8 billion for hiring/retention
- Billions more.
- $45 billion for detention, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion
- $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million
- $8 billion for hiring/retention
- Billions more.
‼️‼️
June 28, 2025 at 11:24 PM
Did some quick math and i think this would represent one of the most dramatic and rapid expansions of prisons/policing/paramilitary forces in world history.
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Can we say we are living in a police state now?
LA Times - Several communities in Los Angeles County have called off or postponed their previously scheduled Independence Day and July events, citing resident safety amid ongoing immigration enforcement raids.
Fear of immigration raids force the cancellation of several July festivities in Los Angeles
Here are some of the July festivities that have been canceled in Los Angeles out of fear over immigration raids.
www.latimes.com
June 29, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Can we say we are living in a police state now?