This piece is so good and so needed and then you had to bring your music opinions into it…

8/🧵 And there's motivated reasoning everywhere. Conservatives want to believe they're winning the youth. Centrist Dems think the party needs to move right. Some progressives fear we're doomed. Consultants want to enter new expensive ad markets. Everyone finds anecdotes confirming their assumptions.

7/🧵 The loudest voices aren't the most representative. Every generation has extremists, but social media amplifies fringe movements beyond their size. A handful of young white nationalists create viral moments that crowd out broader trends. We mistake the exception for the rule.

6/🧵 Why does conventional wisdom miss this? We confuse electoral swings with attitude changes. Gen Z shifted 6 points toward Trump in 2024, suddenly pundits say they're "the most conservative generation in 50 years." Only 42% of Gen Z voted. We mistake turnout shifts for ideological transformation.

5/🧵 Race divides the Democratic Party more than it does Republicans. Young Republicans remain almost as racially resentful as older Republicans. But among Democrats and independents, massive shifts. White Gen Z independents have lower racial resentment than Boomer Democrats.