Julia Coronado
@jc-econ.bsky.social
Founder MPP (yeah you know me), UT Austin Prof, former chief economist various financial firms, Fed economist, Prez NABE. Passionate about family, macro, cats and freedom
aaaaand we are back to private sector job losses in ADP, 4-wk avg loss of 11k in the week ending Oct 25 implying a sharp deterioration at the end of the month given the 42k monthly gain for October. This new data series is basically averaging zero net private sector job creation since August
November 11, 2025 at 1:35 PM
aaaaand we are back to private sector job losses in ADP, 4-wk avg loss of 11k in the week ending Oct 25 implying a sharp deterioration at the end of the month given the 42k monthly gain for October. This new data series is basically averaging zero net private sector job creation since August
...and while @peark.es is absolutely correct that Challenger layoffs are not scientific, they do have the advantage of a long history and inclusion of the public & nonprofit sectors that are getting hit hard. 1mn layoffs year to date is not super bullish for the outlook imho
November 6, 2025 at 1:24 PM
...and while @peark.es is absolutely correct that Challenger layoffs are not scientific, they do have the advantage of a long history and inclusion of the public & nonprofit sectors that are getting hit hard. 1mn layoffs year to date is not super bullish for the outlook imho
...meanwhile Indeed job postings continued slipping through the end of Oct confirming weakness in labor demand. This trend is not our friend
November 6, 2025 at 3:10 AM
...meanwhile Indeed job postings continued slipping through the end of Oct confirming weakness in labor demand. This trend is not our friend
ADP for Oct showed private sector hiring of 42k after a decline of 29k jobs in Sept, but the 3m avg is barely positive at 3k and it is increasingly clear smaller firms are bearing the brunt of policy chaos. Now add in federal layoffs not captured in ADP data and it is no surprise voters are unhappy
November 6, 2025 at 12:35 AM
ADP for Oct showed private sector hiring of 42k after a decline of 29k jobs in Sept, but the 3m avg is barely positive at 3k and it is increasingly clear smaller firms are bearing the brunt of policy chaos. Now add in federal layoffs not captured in ADP data and it is no surprise voters are unhappy
I went to the Treasury website to read a recent speech and was greeted with this…the US govt has become an embarrassment
November 2, 2025 at 3:17 PM
I went to the Treasury website to read a recent speech and was greeted with this…the US govt has become an embarrassment
Feliz Día de los Muertos from the *42nd annual* Viva la Vida Fest in Downtown ATX
#nativenotimmigrant
#nativenotimmigrant
November 2, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Feliz Día de los Muertos from the *42nd annual* Viva la Vida Fest in Downtown ATX
#nativenotimmigrant
#nativenotimmigrant
#NationalCatDay?! Stevie thinks that’s every day
October 30, 2025 at 1:49 AM
#NationalCatDay?! Stevie thinks that’s every day
Powell is simply incorrect that Indeed job postings show no further decline in labor demand--they have continued dropping steadily through last week (Oct 24)
October 29, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Powell is simply incorrect that Indeed job postings show no further decline in labor demand--they have continued dropping steadily through last week (Oct 24)
It's hard to argue that tariffs pressure is materially less than expected--core goods inflation ex autos is running nearly half the pace of the pandemic over the past 6m, but we have a significant offset from cooling rent inflation
October 24, 2025 at 1:21 PM
It's hard to argue that tariffs pressure is materially less than expected--core goods inflation ex autos is running nearly half the pace of the pandemic over the past 6m, but we have a significant offset from cooling rent inflation
Core inflation a little better than expected at 0.23% m/m in the delayed Sept release, the bigger picture is that tariff pass through to goods prices continues and is offsetting moderation in services inflation led by housing keeping inflation stuck at 3.0% for now
October 24, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Core inflation a little better than expected at 0.23% m/m in the delayed Sept release, the bigger picture is that tariff pass through to goods prices continues and is offsetting moderation in services inflation led by housing keeping inflation stuck at 3.0% for now
Thanks for this. The tension is w/ ongoing cooling in labor demand, I remember saying the wealth effect was enough in late 2007. Thoughts on late 2007 comparison? This is the last time I remember companies maintained margins & reported strong results by reducing hiring, payrolls drifted negative...
October 23, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Thanks for this. The tension is w/ ongoing cooling in labor demand, I remember saying the wealth effect was enough in late 2007. Thoughts on late 2007 comparison? This is the last time I remember companies maintained margins & reported strong results by reducing hiring, payrolls drifted negative...
Conflicting signals of a booming stock market & a labor market losing steam can be partly reconciled by small & mid-size firms getting hit harder by tariffs & other policy shocks. Measures of small biz uncertainty are still near all time highs and ADP shows small firms losing steam fastest
October 20, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Conflicting signals of a booming stock market & a labor market losing steam can be partly reconciled by small & mid-size firms getting hit harder by tariffs & other policy shocks. Measures of small biz uncertainty are still near all time highs and ADP shows small firms losing steam fastest
On #NoKings Day I present the Dept of Education spending for fiscal year 2025--a more than $230 *BILLION* dollar cut in spending totally unauthorized by Congress in just eight months
October 18, 2025 at 11:03 AM
On #NoKings Day I present the Dept of Education spending for fiscal year 2025--a more than $230 *BILLION* dollar cut in spending totally unauthorized by Congress in just eight months
A little data for the data hungry--the Indeed job postings index dropped 2 points b/2 the Sept employment week & the end of last week suggesting an ongoing loss in momentum in labor demand. Texas & Florida saw the largest drops after being outperformers in the slowdown in recent months
October 16, 2025 at 7:44 PM
A little data for the data hungry--the Indeed job postings index dropped 2 points b/2 the Sept employment week & the end of last week suggesting an ongoing loss in momentum in labor demand. Texas & Florida saw the largest drops after being outperformers in the slowdown in recent months
Rockstar panel of former Fed officials at NABE talking about the importance of central bank independence, there are no examples of political intervention ending well anywhere
October 14, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Rockstar panel of former Fed officials at NABE talking about the importance of central bank independence, there are no examples of political intervention ending well anywhere
A refreshingly frank discussion at NABE on the disruption to construction & agriculture from immigration policy, the chilling effect of raids on willingness to show up to work is a real, material constraint
October 14, 2025 at 7:09 PM
A refreshingly frank discussion at NABE on the disruption to construction & agriculture from immigration policy, the chilling effect of raids on willingness to show up to work is a real, material constraint
Chair Powell gets a grateful standing O receiving NABE’s Adam Smith Award as he strongly hints at an Oct rate cut and and end to QT “in coming months”
@nabe-econ.bsky.social
@nabe-econ.bsky.social
October 14, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Chair Powell gets a grateful standing O receiving NABE’s Adam Smith Award as he strongly hints at an Oct rate cut and and end to QT “in coming months”
@nabe-econ.bsky.social
@nabe-econ.bsky.social
Absolutely fangirling at NABE 2025
Powerhouse panel discussion of currency wars and the future of the dollar. The takeaway? The termites are munching away at the foundation…
Catherine Mann, Lael Brainard, Catherine Mann
Powerhouse panel discussion of currency wars and the future of the dollar. The takeaway? The termites are munching away at the foundation…
Catherine Mann, Lael Brainard, Catherine Mann
October 13, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Absolutely fangirling at NABE 2025
Powerhouse panel discussion of currency wars and the future of the dollar. The takeaway? The termites are munching away at the foundation…
Catherine Mann, Lael Brainard, Catherine Mann
Powerhouse panel discussion of currency wars and the future of the dollar. The takeaway? The termites are munching away at the foundation…
Catherine Mann, Lael Brainard, Catherine Mann
The fiscal outlook discussion at the @nabe-econ.bsky.social annual meeting is not exactly uplifting. Sorry y’all but AI driven productivity cannot plausibly fix the problem, hope for bipartisan approaches seem remote at best, immigration policy hurts, and we keep going until the market cries uncle…
October 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM
The fiscal outlook discussion at the @nabe-econ.bsky.social annual meeting is not exactly uplifting. Sorry y’all but AI driven productivity cannot plausibly fix the problem, hope for bipartisan approaches seem remote at best, immigration policy hurts, and we keep going until the market cries uncle…
Choose your fighter
October 9, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Choose your fighter
People are talking about the choice of Bad Bunny for the Super Bowl halftime show as an appeal to an international audience but here’s some data—his 2022 tour was the highest grossing tour in *North America*, Latinos are 20% of the US population, Benito is an American and Latin music is just good
October 5, 2025 at 12:51 AM
People are talking about the choice of Bad Bunny for the Super Bowl halftime show as an appeal to an international audience but here’s some data—his 2022 tour was the highest grossing tour in *North America*, Latinos are 20% of the US population, Benito is an American and Latin music is just good
Whelp! ADP did a preliminary benchmark to the QCEW and we are already seeing private job losses in August & September...
October 1, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Whelp! ADP did a preliminary benchmark to the QCEW and we are already seeing private job losses in August & September...