Julia Coronado
@jc-econ.bsky.social
Founder MPP (yeah you know me), UT Austin Prof, former chief economist various financial firms, Fed economist, Prez NABE. Passionate about family, macro, cats and freedom
The White House is suggesting October CPI and employment reports will be skipped entirely. That has been our assumption. Collecting the CPI and HH survey are simply infeasible. Oct NFP can be collected and folded into the Nov report which almost surely will also be delayed by a week or more...1/2
November 12, 2025 at 7:14 PM
The White House is suggesting October CPI and employment reports will be skipped entirely. That has been our assumption. Collecting the CPI and HH survey are simply infeasible. Oct NFP can be collected and folded into the Nov report which almost surely will also be delayed by a week or more...1/2
aaaaand we are back to private sector job losses in ADP, 4-wk avg loss of 11k in the week ending Oct 25 implying a sharp deterioration at the end of the month given the 42k monthly gain for October. This new data series is basically averaging zero net private sector job creation since August
November 11, 2025 at 1:35 PM
aaaaand we are back to private sector job losses in ADP, 4-wk avg loss of 11k in the week ending Oct 25 implying a sharp deterioration at the end of the month given the 42k monthly gain for October. This new data series is basically averaging zero net private sector job creation since August
Reposted by Julia Coronado
New evidence on how ICE is affecting student learning
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1erU5Oe0vJYdVjuqQi4sfhUGxS0BGjWl8/view?usp=drivesdk
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1erU5Oe0vJYdVjuqQi4sfhUGxS0BGjWl8/view?usp=drivesdk
November 10, 2025 at 10:40 AM
New evidence on how ICE is affecting student learning
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1erU5Oe0vJYdVjuqQi4sfhUGxS0BGjWl8/view?usp=drivesdk
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1erU5Oe0vJYdVjuqQi4sfhUGxS0BGjWl8/view?usp=drivesdk
So this “deal” essentially guarantees ACA subsidies expire which offsets roughly a third of household tax cuts due in Q1
November 10, 2025 at 1:30 AM
So this “deal” essentially guarantees ACA subsidies expire which offsets roughly a third of household tax cuts due in Q1
Is Wordle part of the resistance?
November 8, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Is Wordle part of the resistance?
The scam economy, surely this portends a productivity boom? 🤔
(Reuters) - Meta internally projected late last year that it would earn about 10% of its overall annual revenue – or $16 billion – from running advertising for scams and banned goods, internal company documents show.
$META @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
$META @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
November 7, 2025 at 1:54 PM
The scam economy, surely this portends a productivity boom? 🤔
ADP for Oct showed private sector hiring of 42k after a decline of 29k jobs in Sept, but the 3m avg is barely positive at 3k and it is increasingly clear smaller firms are bearing the brunt of policy chaos. Now add in federal layoffs not captured in ADP data and it is no surprise voters are unhappy
November 6, 2025 at 12:35 AM
ADP for Oct showed private sector hiring of 42k after a decline of 29k jobs in Sept, but the 3m avg is barely positive at 3k and it is increasingly clear smaller firms are bearing the brunt of policy chaos. Now add in federal layoffs not captured in ADP data and it is no surprise voters are unhappy
Reposted by Julia Coronado
The latest, 11pm:
—Prop 50 wins
—VA Dems flip Gov, LG, AG; & gain in House
—Dems win NJ-Gov
—Mamdani wins
—PA Dems win supreme court
—ME vote-restricting measure loses
—Krasner & Bragg win
—JD's half-brother loses
—GA Dems flip 2 statewide offices
+ Dem are leading to flip so many local offices.
—Prop 50 wins
—VA Dems flip Gov, LG, AG; & gain in House
—Dems win NJ-Gov
—Mamdani wins
—PA Dems win supreme court
—ME vote-restricting measure loses
—Krasner & Bragg win
—JD's half-brother loses
—GA Dems flip 2 statewide offices
+ Dem are leading to flip so many local offices.
November 5, 2025 at 4:11 AM
The latest, 11pm:
—Prop 50 wins
—VA Dems flip Gov, LG, AG; & gain in House
—Dems win NJ-Gov
—Mamdani wins
—PA Dems win supreme court
—ME vote-restricting measure loses
—Krasner & Bragg win
—JD's half-brother loses
—GA Dems flip 2 statewide offices
+ Dem are leading to flip so many local offices.
—Prop 50 wins
—VA Dems flip Gov, LG, AG; & gain in House
—Dems win NJ-Gov
—Mamdani wins
—PA Dems win supreme court
—ME vote-restricting measure loses
—Krasner & Bragg win
—JD's half-brother loses
—GA Dems flip 2 statewide offices
+ Dem are leading to flip so many local offices.
We should be cautious in interpreting claims filings right now, several hundred thousand people have been fired from the federal govt but most will be ineligible for UI because layoffs were either structured as voluntary deferred resignations (Fork in the Road) or for cause (provisional workers)
We now have unemployment claims data for all 50 states for the week ending 10/25. Still no sign of a big uptick in initial claims. (Note that these charts do NOT include federal workers -- see down thread for those.) #NumbersDay #EconSky
November 3, 2025 at 6:59 PM
We should be cautious in interpreting claims filings right now, several hundred thousand people have been fired from the federal govt but most will be ineligible for UI because layoffs were either structured as voluntary deferred resignations (Fork in the Road) or for cause (provisional workers)
I went to the Treasury website to read a recent speech and was greeted with this…the US govt has become an embarrassment
November 2, 2025 at 3:17 PM
I went to the Treasury website to read a recent speech and was greeted with this…the US govt has become an embarrassment
Feliz Día de los Muertos from the *42nd annual* Viva la Vida Fest in Downtown ATX
#nativenotimmigrant
#nativenotimmigrant
November 2, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Feliz Día de los Muertos from the *42nd annual* Viva la Vida Fest in Downtown ATX
#nativenotimmigrant
#nativenotimmigrant
This is some good ass baseball
November 2, 2025 at 2:34 AM
This is some good ass baseball
The K was on full display in this week’s earnings calls w/ Amazon beating expectations due to cloud computing (while announcing layoffs) & Chipotle & Shake Shack missing as their young adult customers struggle with renewed student loan payments, rising job insecurity and compressed purchasing power
The K-Shaped Economy continues apace...
Note the phrase first became popular in 2020 via "Ivan the K" (really) and Peter Atwater
abcnews.go.com/Business/cov...
Note the phrase first became popular in 2020 via "Ivan the K" (really) and Peter Atwater
abcnews.go.com/Business/cov...
As COVID-19 financial crisis wages on, some economists warn of a divergent 'K-shaped' economic recovery
Economists warn of a divergent 'K-shaped' recovery as pandemic sends some businesses booming and others belly-up.
abcnews.go.com
November 1, 2025 at 2:34 PM
The K was on full display in this week’s earnings calls w/ Amazon beating expectations due to cloud computing (while announcing layoffs) & Chipotle & Shake Shack missing as their young adult customers struggle with renewed student loan payments, rising job insecurity and compressed purchasing power
If the Fed waits until jobless claims spike to move to a neutral policy stance, has it not by definition waited too long?
October 30, 2025 at 1:01 PM
If the Fed waits until jobless claims spike to move to a neutral policy stance, has it not by definition waited too long?
#NationalCatDay?! Stevie thinks that’s every day
October 30, 2025 at 1:49 AM
#NationalCatDay?! Stevie thinks that’s every day
Powell is simply incorrect that Indeed job postings show no further decline in labor demand--they have continued dropping steadily through last week (Oct 24)
October 29, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Powell is simply incorrect that Indeed job postings show no further decline in labor demand--they have continued dropping steadily through last week (Oct 24)
Powell notes "strongly differing views" and notes a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion, "far from it"
October 29, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Powell notes "strongly differing views" and notes a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion, "far from it"
Why would you not just walk Ohtani every time??
October 28, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Why would you not just walk Ohtani every time??
Reposted by Julia Coronado
“That's like an existential threat for congressional power…How do you negotiate a longer-term spending deal…when you don't believe the executive branch is going to implement whatever choices it is that you put into that law?" Via Reuters
US government shutdown threatens the spending power of Congress
As Republican and Democratic lawmakers trade blame for the U.S. government shutdown, some have begun to worry that the impasse is ceding their authority over federal spending to an increasingly assertive President Donald Trump.
www.reuters.com
October 26, 2025 at 11:02 AM
“That's like an existential threat for congressional power…How do you negotiate a longer-term spending deal…when you don't believe the executive branch is going to implement whatever choices it is that you put into that law?" Via Reuters
It's hard to argue that tariffs pressure is materially less than expected--core goods inflation ex autos is running nearly half the pace of the pandemic over the past 6m, but we have a significant offset from cooling rent inflation
October 24, 2025 at 1:21 PM
It's hard to argue that tariffs pressure is materially less than expected--core goods inflation ex autos is running nearly half the pace of the pandemic over the past 6m, but we have a significant offset from cooling rent inflation
Core inflation a little better than expected at 0.23% m/m in the delayed Sept release, the bigger picture is that tariff pass through to goods prices continues and is offsetting moderation in services inflation led by housing keeping inflation stuck at 3.0% for now
October 24, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Core inflation a little better than expected at 0.23% m/m in the delayed Sept release, the bigger picture is that tariff pass through to goods prices continues and is offsetting moderation in services inflation led by housing keeping inflation stuck at 3.0% for now
Reposted by Julia Coronado
Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) webinar this Thursday featuring three former commissioners will:
- provide updates,
- describe strategies, &
- offer a menu of concrete ways for you to engage with Friends of BLS.
All are welcome. Register at link.
#EconSky #NumbersDay #PolicySky
- provide updates,
- describe strategies, &
- offer a menu of concrete ways for you to engage with Friends of BLS.
All are welcome. Register at link.
#EconSky #NumbersDay #PolicySky
The Friends of BLS steering committee is sponsoring a member webinar noon to 1pm ET Thurs, Oct 23.
We aim to build nonpartisan support for a strong BLS & need your perspectives & energy.
Former Commissioners @ericagroshen.bsky.social, William Beach, & @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social will...
#EconSky
We aim to build nonpartisan support for a strong BLS & need your perspectives & energy.
Former Commissioners @ericagroshen.bsky.social, William Beach, & @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social will...
#EconSky
October 20, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) webinar this Thursday featuring three former commissioners will:
- provide updates,
- describe strategies, &
- offer a menu of concrete ways for you to engage with Friends of BLS.
All are welcome. Register at link.
#EconSky #NumbersDay #PolicySky
- provide updates,
- describe strategies, &
- offer a menu of concrete ways for you to engage with Friends of BLS.
All are welcome. Register at link.
#EconSky #NumbersDay #PolicySky
I am old enough to remember when even fully vetted and authorized construction projects that went over budget were viewed as grounds for dismissal of high level officials...
October 23, 2025 at 1:54 PM
I am old enough to remember when even fully vetted and authorized construction projects that went over budget were viewed as grounds for dismissal of high level officials...
Reposted by Julia Coronado
Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown.
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Fed Making Key Economic Decisions Without Key Economic Data - The American Prospect
The Fed considers information from a variety of sources in setting monetary policy, everything from anecdotal reports to original data produced by its regional Reserve Banks. But the loss of public, a...
prospect.org
October 21, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown.
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).