James Bland
@jamesbland.bsky.social
Economist at UToledo. 🇦🇺 Bayesian Econometrics for economic experiments and Behavioral Economics
Free online book on this stuff here: https://jamesblandecon.github.io/StructuralBayesianTechniques/section.html
https://sites.google.com/site/jamesbland/
He/his
Free online book on this stuff here: https://jamesblandecon.github.io/StructuralBayesianTechniques/section.html
https://sites.google.com/site/jamesbland/
He/his
Bring it! The draft is coming together!
November 28, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Bring it! The draft is coming together!
I found out that something doesn't work very well. In the interest of not burying it so that someone else goes down this rabbit hole again, maybe I will try to write a paper.
November 27, 2025 at 10:49 PM
I found out that something doesn't work very well. In the interest of not burying it so that someone else goes down this rabbit hole again, maybe I will try to write a paper.
New version of a working paper: "Meta-study in the shadow of the future: the effect of continuation probability on strategies"
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
I have re-done the analysis with an expanded list of strategies
#EconSky
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
I have re-done the analysis with an expanded list of strategies
#EconSky
November 27, 2025 at 1:07 AM
New version of a working paper: "Meta-study in the shadow of the future: the effect of continuation probability on strategies"
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
I have re-done the analysis with an expanded list of strategies
#EconSky
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
I have re-done the analysis with an expanded list of strategies
#EconSky
It came back and adjusted the Stan program to fit in with my suggested workflow.
November 13, 2025 at 11:25 PM
It came back and adjusted the Stan program to fit in with my suggested workflow.
I then directed it to where I (selfishly) think the cutting edge of the literature is.
November 13, 2025 at 11:25 PM
I then directed it to where I (selfishly) think the cutting edge of the literature is.
I then probed it on why it chose the priors that ended up in the code. This is something I feel like I am on the cutting edge of (priors for structural models), but it gave me a reasonable answer.
November 13, 2025 at 11:25 PM
I then probed it on why it chose the priors that ended up in the code. This is something I feel like I am on the cutting edge of (priors for structural models), but it gave me a reasonable answer.
I then asked it for a hierarchical model, because at this point it was doing really well. It even worked out that the non-centered parameterization was a good idea.
November 13, 2025 at 11:25 PM
I then asked it for a hierarchical model, because at this point it was doing really well. It even worked out that the non-centered parameterization was a good idea.
I then gave it very specific instructions where I recognized there were speed-ups to be taken advantage of. But to be honest, all you need to know is that vectorization speeds things up in Stan. Once you know to ask it that, it will do it for you.
November 13, 2025 at 11:25 PM
I then gave it very specific instructions where I recognized there were speed-ups to be taken advantage of. But to be honest, all you need to know is that vectorization speeds things up in Stan. Once you know to ask it that, it will do it for you.
What I got was something that actually did the job! Like, it would run and everything. That said, it wasn't as efficient as I knew it could get, so I probed a bit more.
November 13, 2025 at 11:25 PM
What I got was something that actually did the job! Like, it would run and everything. That said, it wasn't as efficient as I knew it could get, so I probed a bit more.
I asked it to write a Stan program that estimated EUT preferences with CRRA and logit choice. About as standard as you an get in my discipline.
November 13, 2025 at 11:25 PM
I asked it to write a Stan program that estimated EUT preferences with CRRA and logit choice. About as standard as you an get in my discipline.
The first thing I did was feed it a csv of some data that is typical of my work: the first subject in Harrison & Ng (2016). Without any further prompting, it asked if I wanted to estimate some prospect theory preferences. I had milder ambitions: expected utility
November 13, 2025 at 11:25 PM
The first thing I did was feed it a csv of some data that is typical of my work: the first subject in Harrison & Ng (2016). Without any further prompting, it asked if I wanted to estimate some prospect theory preferences. I had milder ambitions: expected utility
Getting ready to present my work at Purdue
Also looking forward to catching up with a whole lot of friends and colleagues from my PhD program!
link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Also looking forward to catching up with a whole lot of friends and colleagues from my PhD program!
link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
November 6, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Getting ready to present my work at Purdue
Also looking forward to catching up with a whole lot of friends and colleagues from my PhD program!
link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Also looking forward to catching up with a whole lot of friends and colleagues from my PhD program!
link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Or you could estimate a hierarchical model that assumes your participants' parameters are drawn from a population distribution.
November 4, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Or you could estimate a hierarchical model that assumes your participants' parameters are drawn from a population distribution.
Or you could assume a finite mixture of preference types
I really don't like this one, especially for this application. It really looks more like a continuous distribution.
I really don't like this one, especially for this application. It really looks more like a continuous distribution.
November 4, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Or you could assume a finite mixture of preference types
I really don't like this one, especially for this application. It really looks more like a continuous distribution.
I really don't like this one, especially for this application. It really looks more like a continuous distribution.
Now come some "in between" choices.
If you have participant demographics, you can make your parameters a function of these
If you have participant demographics, you can make your parameters a function of these
November 4, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Now come some "in between" choices.
If you have participant demographics, you can make your parameters a function of these
If you have participant demographics, you can make your parameters a function of these
At the other end of things, you can estimate your model once for every participant. This is really flexible, but your estimates will likely be imprecise.
November 4, 2025 at 4:42 PM
At the other end of things, you can estimate your model once for every participant. This is really flexible, but your estimates will likely be imprecise.
First (not advisable) you can ignore the heterogeneity and assume everyone is the same.
Simple, easy, probably very wrong.
Simple, easy, probably very wrong.
November 4, 2025 at 4:42 PM
First (not advisable) you can ignore the heterogeneity and assume everyone is the same.
Simple, easy, probably very wrong.
Simple, easy, probably very wrong.
New working paper!
"Adding parameter heterogeneity to structural models: some guidance for the practitioner"
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
a thread ...
#TeachBE #EconSky
"Adding parameter heterogeneity to structural models: some guidance for the practitioner"
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
a thread ...
#TeachBE #EconSky
November 4, 2025 at 4:42 PM
New working paper!
"Adding parameter heterogeneity to structural models: some guidance for the practitioner"
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
a thread ...
#TeachBE #EconSky
"Adding parameter heterogeneity to structural models: some guidance for the practitioner"
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
a thread ...
#TeachBE #EconSky
November 3, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Getting ready to present this at @pittecon.bsky.social
Link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
October 31, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Getting ready to present this at @pittecon.bsky.social
Link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
In a common experiment design, I show that RDU preferences can be nonconvex. This can be a problem for estimation, as there can be multiple optima.
October 27, 2025 at 6:31 PM
In a common experiment design, I show that RDU preferences can be nonconvex. This can be a problem for estimation, as there can be multiple optima.
Getting ready for my Workshop for Ukraine. Coming up in a bit under two hours!
October 16, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Getting ready for my Workshop for Ukraine. Coming up in a bit under two hours!
And about 75% of participants actually make themselves better off on average.
But that leaves about 25% of participants who made themselves *worse* off by revising their choices.
But that leaves about 25% of participants who made themselves *worse* off by revising their choices.
October 14, 2025 at 4:05 PM
And about 75% of participants actually make themselves better off on average.
But that leaves about 25% of participants who made themselves *worse* off by revising their choices.
But that leaves about 25% of participants who made themselves *worse* off by revising their choices.