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jakereynolds.bsky.social
Jake Reynolds
@jakereynolds.bsky.social
3.3K followers 740 following 580 posts
Researching Green Behaviors @ Columbia Business School, New York 🗽

Columbia PhD Behavioral Marketing & Data Science 📈 | University of Cambridge BA 🎓

Behavioural Insights Team Alum 📊 Energy, Transport, and Sustainability Policy
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jakereynolds.bsky.social
But what I like most about this paper?? 👀

The LEAST informed about green choices benefit the MOST from learning about impact 📈

It turns challenges like 'low carbon competence' into an opportunity for big change ⬇️

🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41... @elisugerman.bsky.social, @ericjjohnson.bsky.social
June 11, 2025 at 6:58 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
WHEN do people change their travel habits? ⏰⌛🚗🚌🚴‍♀️

Loved unpacking 'moments of change' with the UK Department for Transport

We asked how disrupting habits shifts travel choices:

How might moving home change how you commute? Injury tamper cycling⁉️ The list goes on ⬇️🧵

🔗➡️ shorturl.at/alwIj
The image is the cover page of a report from the Department for Transport (UK government). The title of the report is: "Moments of Change: How to enhance the effectiveness of behavioural interventions in travel" The publication date is March 2025. It features a clean, modern design with overlapping geometric shapes in green and grey tones, giving it a professional and governmental feel.
April 2, 2025 at 1:36 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
You can see where these hyperscale data centers are located ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
U.S. map titled “Number of Hyperscale Data Centers by State (Through 2023).” Each state is shaded based on the number of hyperscale data centers it has, using a gradient from light gray (0) to dark blue (up to 40). Yellow dots indicate the specific locations of hyperscale data centers. States with the darkest blue—indicating the highest counts—include Virginia, Texas, California, Georgia, and Ohio. States with little to no hyperscale presence are shown in lighter colors. Source: EPRI, Powering Intelligence (May 2024).
March 26, 2025 at 9:00 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
Biggest demand grown regions ⬇️

𝐓𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐬: Dallas data centers
𝐌𝐢𝐝-𝐀𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜: N. Virginia/Penn. data centers
𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭: Atlanta data centers
𝐌𝐢𝐝𝐰𝐞𝐬𝐭: Manufacturing/data centers
𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐰𝐞𝐬𝐭: Data centers/chip plants.
𝐂𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐔𝐒: Oil/gas (N. Mexico, N. Dakota) and data centers (Oklahoma, Missouri)
Infographic titled “Six Regions Driving Load Growth Through 2029” by Grid Strategies. A U.S. map highlights six electric grid regions projected to have the highest electricity demand growth by 2029, each with an associated gigawatt (GW) increase and explanation: ERCOT (Texas) – 43 GW load growth, driven by data centers in Dallas-Ft. Worth, and oil and gas production. PJM (Mid-Atlantic) – 30 GW, driven by data centers in Northern Virginia, with some growth from Pennsylvania data centers and Ohio manufacturing. Georgia Power (Southeast) – 13 GW, driven by Atlanta-area data centers and some manufacturing. MISO (Midwest) – 9 GW, with growth from manufacturing and data centers. Pacific Northwest – 7 GW, driven by data centers and chip fabrication plants. SPP (Central U.S.) – 6 GW, with dispersed growth from oil and gas regions (New Mexico, North Dakota) and near-term data center growth (Oklahoma, Missouri). The regions are color-coded and labeled on the map for easy referen
March 26, 2025 at 8:59 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
✨4️⃣ 𝐈𝐍𝐂𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐒𝐄𝐃 𝐇𝐎𝐌𝐄 𝐄𝐋𝐄𝐂𝐓𝐑𝐈𝐅𝐈𝐂𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 ✨

🏡 Building electrification also drives demand

➡️ Households are taking up electric appliances like heat pumps (📈⬇️)

➡️The residential sector is expecting a 𝟏𝟎% 𝐈𝐍𝐂𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐒𝐄 in electricity demand by 2030

Clearly, we need to think 𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒐𝒖𝒔𝒍𝒚 about demand-side energy use
Line chart titled “Heat pumps outsold gas furnaces again in 2023,” showing units shipped per year in the U.S. from 2012 to 2023. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 4,000,000 units. Heat pump sales (blue line) and gas furnace sales (yellow line) both increased over the period. Gas furnaces led in sales until around 2021. In 2022, heat pump sales slightly surpassed gas furnace sales, and in 2023, heat pumps outsold gas furnaces by a larger margin. In 2023, heat pump sales dropped slightly from their 2022 peak, while gas furnace sales fell sharply. Source: Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute. Chart by Canary Media.
March 26, 2025 at 8:40 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
✨2️⃣ 𝐑𝐄𝐕𝐈𝐓𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐙𝐄𝐃 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐌𝐀𝐍𝐔𝐅𝐀𝐂𝐓𝐔𝐑𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐒𝐄𝐂𝐓𝐎𝐑 ✨

Investment in US manufacturing has 𝐃𝐎𝐔𝐁𝐋𝐄𝐃 since 2021

Thank the Inflation Reduction Act 👩‍⚖️

Companies are investing in new production hubs, e.g. for electronics, chips, EVs, solar panels

⚡ This needs electricity. Lots

Consequences—if any—for consumers? ⬇️
Line graph titled “Investment in US factories has soared since the end of 2022.” The chart shows investment in manufacturing structures in billions of inflation-adjusted dollars, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, from Q1 2007 to Q1 2024. From 2007 to around 2022, investment fluctuated mostly between $50 billion and $90 billion. Starting in late 2022, the line rises sharply, reaching nearly $150 billion by early 2024. The data source is Karen Dynan’s presentation “Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2024,” and the chart is published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).
March 26, 2025 at 7:57 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
What consumer trends are spiking electricity demand?

✨ 1️⃣ 𝐃𝐄𝐌𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐀𝐈 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐔𝐃 ✨

Cloud and AI demand means that data centers could account for 𝟒𝟒% 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐔𝐒 𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐝 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 and for 𝟔.𝟕%-𝟏𝟐% 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐔𝐒 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 by 2028📈⬇️

Consumer reliance on clouds/AI needs attention - any thoughts? 👀
Line graph titled “Total U.S. data center electricity use from 2014 through 2028.” The y-axis shows total electricity consumption in terawatt-hours (TWh), ranging from 0 to 600 TWh. The x-axis spans years 2014 to 2028. A black line shows historical data from 2014 to 2022, rising steadily from about 70 TWh to approximately 200 TWh. Labels show that data centers used 1.9% of total U.S. electricity around 2017 and 4.4% in 2022. From 2023 onward, a shaded area indicates a future scenario range, with electricity use projected to rise steeply to between approximately 350 and 570 TWh by 2028, representing 6.7% to 12.0% of U.S. electricity consumption.
March 26, 2025 at 7:34 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
US electricity demand is 𝐬𝐤𝐲𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 📈⚡

National 5-year forecasts for electricity load are 𝟓𝐗 𝐇𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐄𝐑 than previous predictions

Peak demand is set to increase by 𝟏𝟐𝟖,𝟎𝟎𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐬 by 2029

That's roughly 𝟏𝟑𝐗 peak demand for NYC today 🗽

This is behavioral, so, what's driving consumption? 🛒
Bar chart titled "U.S. electricity demand is expected to skyrocket after years of flat demand." It shows U.S. summer peak electric demand from 2016 to 2024 as historical data, and a projection for 2029. The demand remained relatively flat from 2016 (716 GW) to 2024 (745 GW). A sharp increase is projected in 2029, reaching 873 GW. The 2029 bar is divided into two colors: gray for 2024-level demand and orange for projected five-year load growth. Source: World Resources Institute, based on data from EIA and Grid Strategies 2024.
March 26, 2025 at 7:04 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
and... I really recommend a close read of this table. It models the requires changes in green choices and behaviors required across:

🚗 Driving
🏡 Home heating
🥩 Meat and dairy consumption
✈️ Flying

And maps how it will need to progress over 2025-2050 📉

⬇️
A table titled "Key values in the Balanced Pathway for household low-carbon choices" displaying projected values for various sustainability metrics across 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2050. The table is divided into four groupings: Driving, Home heating, Meat and dairy, and Flying. Driving: The percentage of electric cars in the fleet rises from 6% in 2025 to 97% in 2050. Modal shift to public or active travel reaches 7% by 2030 and remains constant. Car-km avoided per capita due to modal shift increases over time. Home heating: The percentage of homes with heat pumps grows from 2% in 2025 to 80% in 2050. Homes with a low-carbon electrified heating system reach 100% by 2050. Big energy efficiency measures deployment grows to 5.5 million by 2035 and remains constant. Meat and dairy: Average meat consumption drops by 35% by 2050 compared to 2019 levels, while dairy consumption drops by 20%. Weekly meat consumption per person decreases from 1,011 grams in 2025 to 678 grams in 2050, and dairy from 1,918 grams to 1,598 grams. Flying: Aviation terminal passenger demand decreases slightly in 2025 (-0.6%) but increases by +28% in 2050 relative to 2025 levels. The table highlights significant shifts toward electric vehicles, low-carbon home heating, reduced meat consumption, and changes in travel behavior over the decades.
February 26, 2025 at 5:37 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
🚗

Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
A line graph titled "Battery-electric car share of total fleet (%)" showing data from 2010 to 2050. The y-axis represents the percentage of battery-electric cars in the total fleet, ranging from 0% to 100%. A shaded gray area indicates historical data until around 2020, where adoption remains very low. After 2020, the purple line representing the Balanced Pathway shows a steep increase, reaching approximately 100% by 2050.
February 26, 2025 at 2:38 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
🏠

Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
Electrification = behavior change
A line graph titled "Proportion of homes with a heat pump (%)" showing data from 2010 to 2050. The y-axis represents the percentage of homes with heat pumps, ranging from 0% to 80%. A shaded gray area indicates historical data until around 2020, where adoption remains very low. After 2020, the purple line representing the Balanced Pathway shows a steep increase, reaching approximately 80% by 2050.
February 26, 2025 at 2:15 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
Uh oh... again, the orange CO₂ emissions are behavioral 📉

🏠 Home energy electrification? Behavior change does most of the heavy lifting

➡️ Heat pump uptake is 66% of our home energy CO₂ reduction needs
➡️ 68% of homes need heat pumps by 2040
➡️ This warrants MORE consumer demand
➡️ AND more installers
A stacked area chart showing sources of emissions abatement in residential buildings under the Balanced Pathway from 2008 to 2050. The y-axis represents emissions in MtCO₂e, and the x-axis represents the years. The chart displays historical emissions in gray, with a baseline projection (dashed line). Emissions decline significantly, mainly driven by low-carbon heating (largest contributor in orange), followed by household appliances (purple), energy efficiency (brown), energy-saving practices (blue), and new homes (light purple). The chart highlights the importance of electrification of heating in reducing emissions, alongside energy efficiency improvements and behavioral changes. By 2050, emissions approach near-zero levels.
February 26, 2025 at 1:45 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
Electrifying surface transport? Behavioral. 🚗🚐🛻🔌

That big orange slither? Yes. That's behavior change based on consumer uptake of electric cars.

🏛️ Sure, this rests on Gov and industry action: EV uptake will follow price-drops and grants

But... what other behavioral barriers may limit uptake? 👀
A stacked area chart showing sources of emissions abatement in surface transport under the Balanced Pathway from 2008 to 2050. The y-axis represents emissions in MtCO₂e, and the x-axis represents the years. The chart illustrates the impact of different measures in reducing emissions, including electric cars (largest contributor in orange), zero-emission HGVs, rail, modal shift and efficient driving, electric vans, other zero-emission vehicles, and vehicle efficiency and hybridisation. The baseline (dashed line) represents emissions without these interventions. The chart shows a significant decline in emissions, reaching nearly zero by 2050.
February 26, 2025 at 11:51 AM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
But.

Whilst onus rests with Gov and Business to enable electrification (e.g. via cheaper electricity, grants), don't forget:

⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡
ELECTRICIFICATION = BEHAVIOR CHANGE
⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡

📈⬇️

Consumer uptake and public approval are key for rollout of EVs, heat pumps, solar & wind farms

It's behavioral.
Graphs titled "Key indicators of roll-out of low-carbon technologies and land-based actions in the Balanced Pathway." Each graph displays historical data (in dark purple) and projected data under the "Balanced Pathway" scenario (in bright purple) from around 2010 to 2050. The graphs illustrate trends in various low-carbon technologies and land-based environmental actions: Offshore wind operational capacity (GW) - Shows a significant increase from near zero in 2020 to over 100 GW by 2050. Onshore wind operational capacity (GW) - Rises steadily from around 10 GW in 2020 to approximately 40 GW by 2050. Solar operational capacity (GW) - Grows sharply from almost zero in 2020 to around 100 GW by 2050. Average transmission network boundary capability (GW) - Increases steadily from around 5 GW in 2020 to nearly 20 GW by 2050. Battery-electric car share of total fleet (%) - Rises from almost zero in 2020 to about 100% by 2050. Proportion of homes with a heat pump (%) - Increases steeply from near zero in 2020 to about 80% by 2050. Electricity used in industry (% of total industry energy use) - Rises from about 20% in 2020 to around 80% by 2050. Dispatchable low-carbon operational capacity (GW) - Grows from near zero in 2020 to about 40 GW by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuel share (%) - Increases from 0% in 2020 to around 40% by 2050. Proportion of land covered by woodland (%) - Gradually increases from around 13% in 2020 to 18% by 2050. Proportion of peatland in natural or rewetted condition (%) - Grows from around 20% in 2020 to nearly 60% by 2050. Total engineered removals (MtCO₂) - Shows negative values, indicating carbon removal, with a steep increase (more negative) from near zero in 2020 to about -50 MtCO₂ by 2050. Each graph has a shaded region representing historical data up to around 2020, followed by projected data in the Balanced Pathway. The lines show a general trend of increasing adoption of low-carbon technologies and land-based environmental actions.
February 26, 2025 at 11:20 AM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
✨New✨ climate report makes one thing clear about Net Zero...

🔋Electrification
🔋Electrification
🔋Electrification

Behaviorally:

📈 37% of CO₂ reductions come from household behavior changes

📈 72% of these reductions come from electrification: EVs (40%), heat pumps (30%).

Chuffed to be cited 😊

🧵⬇️
A pie chart and bar chart illustrating the share of emissions reduction in 2040 that relies on household low-carbon choices. The pie chart shows that 37% of emissions reduction comes from household choices, while 63% does not. The bar chart breaks down household-driven reductions: 42% from electric vehicles, 30% from low-carbon heating, 6% from reduced meat and dairy consumption, 1% from land-use changes due to diet shifts, 6% from maintaining current flying levels, 4% from energy efficiency in homes, 3% from modal shifts, and 8% from other smaller actions (e.g., waste reduction, recycling, efficient appliances). The source is the Climate Change Committee (CCC).
February 26, 2025 at 11:20 AM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
Someone print "the cold never bothered me anyway" on a heat pump plz 🫠
February 21, 2025 at 2:27 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
These heat pump ads sold it for me 👸👸👸👸👸👸👸⬇️
Snow white heat pump. Frozen Else heat pump
February 20, 2025 at 8:28 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
🔋🌡️ Energy terminology is SO complex

This adds friction to green energy choices.

Off-peak. Feed-In Tariffs. Demand-Flex. Smart-Meter 🥲

Rule #1 of my climate comms hacks: ✨Provide clear and simple messages✨ So, let's think of some clearer terms...🧵⬇️

Examples from🔗 www.theade.co.uk/resources/de...
A table listing a the mountain of energy jargon that exists: Consumer-focused energy terms "Consumer-Facing Terms: Off-peak hours, Energy Shifting, Turn and turn-up prosumers. Branded or descriptive terms: Shape Shifters, Beat the Peak, High Tide Saver events, Octopoints, The Big Dirty turndown, PowerMoveFlex." Technical energy terms "Grid Operations and Management: Grid Stability, Grid balancing, Overloading problems, and grid constraints. Market mechanisms: Revenue stacking strategies, Market clearing methods, and Trading platforms. System Operator Specific Terms: Local flexibility market, Network capacity, Regional Development Programmes (RDPs). Financial Terms: Capacity Remuneration Mechanism, Single Markets Platform (SMP), Buyback Rate, Feed-in Tariff (FiT), and Standard Variable Tariff (SVT). " Regulatory energy terms "Policy and Regulatory Terms: Balancing and Settlement Code (BSC), Retail Energy Code (REC), and Cyber Assessment Framework (CAF). Consumer Protection and Advocacy Terms: innovation, Accessible consumer experiences." Decarbonization terms "Energy Storage and Technology Terms: battery storage, smart heating systems, and thermal energy storage. Environmental and Sustainability Terms: greener times, zero-carbon grid, energy transition, Renewable energy generation."
February 20, 2025 at 2:51 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
✨TREND 5: Behavioral science can foster public UPTAKE of green choices✨

Up to 62% of carbon abatement needs hinge on behavior change. Including:

🏠 Home energy choices
🚌 Transport choices
🥩 Food choices
🗑️ Waste choices
🛍️ Consumer choices

BI can flag barriers and enablers that shape change 📈
A graph showing the proportion of emissions abatement needs that depend on curtailing habits (9%), adopting low carbon tech (53%) and supply side changes (38%)
February 19, 2025 at 9:49 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
Right... more on ✨TREND 4✨⬇️

BI can foster public participation in citizens assemblies, town halls and co-design dialogues by smashing barriers to participation ✅

⬇️ Report on the impact of co-design by the legendary @bankfieldbecky.bsky.social ⬇️

🔗 www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/u...
The cover of the report called "The role of deliberative public engagement in climate policy" https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/The-role-of-deliberative-public-engagement-in-climate-policy-development-University-of-Lancaster.pdf
February 18, 2025 at 3:18 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
...more on Trend 3: Public Support ⬇️

What makes the public support green policies?

⚖️ Perceived Fairness
👊 Perceived Effectiveness
🚧 Perceived Feasibility

🔗 www.bi.team/wp-content/u...
Front page of the BIT report on public support for net zero https://www.bi.team/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Understanding-public-support-for-Net-Zero-policies-1.pdf 3 graphs showing positive relationships between policy popularity and (1) perceived fairness, (2) perceived effectiveness, (3) perceived feasibility.
February 17, 2025 at 4:29 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
Even MORE on trend 3 ⬇️

BI reveals factors that shape green policy support:

➡️ Is a policy fair?
➡️ Is a policy effective?
➡️ The cost-benefit ratio?
➡️ People’s climate attitudes

I NEVER get tired of this report ⬇️ @loisplayer.bsky.social @lwhitmarsh.bsky.social

🔗 www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/u...
Cover page for the CAST and CCC report about Behavioral Science and Climate Policy https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/The-Implications-of-Behavioural-Science-for-Effective-Climate-Policy-Literature-Review-and-Background-Report-CAST.pdf#page44 Table from the CAST and CCC report about Behavioral Science and Climate Policy It unpacks factors that impact climate policy acceptability from a behavioral perspective. https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/The-Implications-of-Behavioural-Science-for-Effective-Climate-Policy-Literature-Review-and-Background-Report-CAST.pdf#page44
February 16, 2025 at 6:21 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
...more on trend 3️⃣👇

Public acceptability for green policies is not static. Behavioral scientists can foster support.

We talk about this in the paper the OECD cite ⬇️

'Agreement' is one of our 4 A's of public green engagement.

Fostering it involves reassuring narratives and addressing barriers 🚧
A schematic showing the 4 A's of public engagement with climate policy. Awareness, Agreement, Access, Adoption.
February 16, 2025 at 12:15 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
✨TREND 3: Behavioral science should be used to map public ACCEPTABILITY of green policies✨

Green policies need public buy-in. BI helps us to understand what's palatable 🍽️

⬇️👀 LOOK how support for green policies shift when you stress the impacts they have on people's daily life and their finances
A graph showing policy support across green policies. A graph showing policy support across green policies if you stress lifestyle tradeoffs A graph showing policy support across green policies if you stress financial tradeoffs
February 15, 2025 at 8:49 PM
jakereynolds.bsky.social
✨TREND 2: Behavioral science should be applied to climate ADAPTATION too, not just mitigation✨

Adaptation. is. behavioral.

E.g. people to underestimate disaster risks. Risk communication needs behavioral input

🔗⬇️ This OEDC paper showcases how BI helped farmers uptake drought assistance programs 🦘
Cover page for an Australian Government report about applying behavioral science to farming https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/projects/better-support-farmers-drought.pdf
February 15, 2025 at 6:04 PM