Ivo Bantel
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ivobantel.bsky.social
Ivo Bantel
@ivobantel.bsky.social
600 followers 250 following 56 posts
Head of Research & Data @POLITICOEurope ・polarization, extremism, computational social science, text-as-data・PhD from University of Zurich, previously @Harvard Gov't, @Oxford DPIR & @University of Bremen (he/him)
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ivobantel.bsky.social
New study by @nickbichay.bsky.social

Radical-Right parties participating in elections disenchant and demobilize voters, endangering (not "correcting") democracy!

RR participation in elections is associated with lower(!) turnout.

But don't RR parties bring non-voters to the ballots? Not really.
A two-panel figure illustrating the conditional effect of radical-right parties on voter turnout. The left panel, titled "Satisfaction w/ Democracy," shows two data points: 1. For non-radical-right party supporters, the effect is slightly negative (below zero) with a small error bar. 2. For radical-right party supporters, the effect is strongly positive (above zero) with a larger error bar, indicating greater variability. The right panel, titled "Trust in Politicians," also shows two data points: 1. For non-radical-right party supporters, the effect is negative (below zero) with a small error bar. 2. For radical-right party supporters, the effect is moderately positive (above zero) with a moderate error bar. Both panels share the y-axis labeled "Change_After_Radical-Right_Contestation," centered around zero. Error bars in both panels represent confidence intervals.
December 5, 2024 at 9:57 AM
ivobantel.bsky.social
📊 New polling analysis by the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division for the 2024 European Parliament election

🗓 5 months ahead of the EP election Nisa Khan, Rodrigo Gutierrez & I crunched the data and present the latest polling trends.

#EuropeanPolitics #EU2024

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January 9, 2024 at 12:02 PM
ivobantel.bsky.social
We compute country-level considering parties’ commitment to pluralism and their electoral strength.

The result is declining commitment to pluralism vis-à-vis 2019.

(N.B. however: this doesn't consider who holds power – it only takes vote shares and parties' commitment to pluralism into account.)
November 11, 2023 at 6:37 PM