🔹 Why it matters: These findings add nuance to how we think about the education–health gradient. Social context shapes how, when, and why education protects (or doesn’t protect) health. Understanding these dynamics helps refine theories of fundamental causes and informs public health strategies

🔹 This shift mirrors a broader pattern, the Population Education Transition curve: Across other health risks, the most educated adopt first (and face higher risk), then lead the shift toward healthier behaviors once high-quality information becomes available. More on this: doi.org/10.1007/s135...

🔹 Gender dynamics played a key role in early transmission dynamics: Consistent with earlier studies, more educated men were often the first to contract and introduce HIV into sexual networks shaped by concurrency and mobility, helping explain early positive gradients.

🔹 Over time, the gradient reversed: Younger cohorts show negative gradients, consistent with education’s more protective role as prevention knowledge and public health campaigns became more widely available

Key takeaways:

🔹 Early in the epidemic: Older cohorts show strong positive education–HIV gradients (likely tied to urban migration, mobility, sexual networks, and limited access to reliable prevention information)

Absolutely!

This work is a collaboration with the ERC-ECHO project team (IEGD-CSIC): Guillermo Gómez, Clara Bueno, Néstor Aldea, @borchgrevink.bsky.social & Alberto Palloni

This dynamic is likely more complex though. We argue that the grandparent effect isn’t disappearing but shifting from enhancing reproductive fitness (child survival, basic nutrition) to supporting social fitness (eg, cognitive and non-cognitive skills). More on this here: osf.io/preprints/os...

Results suggest that as populations experience demographic and epidemiological transitions, the net flow of grandparental support may decline, reflecting aging populations and shifting health profiles.