Ilya Spivak
@ilyaspivak.bsky.social
Head of Global Macro @ tastylive
We've already seen that play out. USD suffered a massive loss in the first half of the year. Markets don't move in straight lines. However, price action did how us that USD haven status is secure for now. Note the H1'25 drop in 10y UST yields.
www.tastylive.com/news-insight...
www.tastylive.com/news-insight...
July 17, 2025 at 11:59 PM
We've already seen that play out. USD suffered a massive loss in the first half of the year. Markets don't move in straight lines. However, price action did how us that USD haven status is secure for now. Note the H1'25 drop in 10y UST yields.
www.tastylive.com/news-insight...
www.tastylive.com/news-insight...
Just look at what price action told us in the first half of the year:
1. Markets believe in the faith and credit of the US government and lend it long-term money at friendly borrowing costs.
2. Monetary stimulus is ahead.
www.tastylive.com/news-insight...
1. Markets believe in the faith and credit of the US government and lend it long-term money at friendly borrowing costs.
2. Monetary stimulus is ahead.
www.tastylive.com/news-insight...
July 17, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Just look at what price action told us in the first half of the year:
1. Markets believe in the faith and credit of the US government and lend it long-term money at friendly borrowing costs.
2. Monetary stimulus is ahead.
www.tastylive.com/news-insight...
1. Markets believe in the faith and credit of the US government and lend it long-term money at friendly borrowing costs.
2. Monetary stimulus is ahead.
www.tastylive.com/news-insight...
Goods inflation has been broadly nonexistent for close to two years, with almost all price growth on the service side. So no, I don’t think the Fed is missing anything here, or that inflation is being driven by resource input prices.
July 15, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Goods inflation has been broadly nonexistent for close to two years, with almost all price growth on the service side. So no, I don’t think the Fed is missing anything here, or that inflation is being driven by resource input prices.
Fiction can be fun, but I find the reference section much more insightful. 😂
USD is down 9.7% so far this year. It fell ~13% from peaks in 2016 and 2020 and didn’t even break the uptrend. It fell ~38% from the high in 2001. Here’s a chart of an average vs the top 4 most traded currencies.
USD is down 9.7% so far this year. It fell ~13% from peaks in 2016 and 2020 and didn’t even break the uptrend. It fell ~38% from the high in 2001. Here’s a chart of an average vs the top 4 most traded currencies.
July 4, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Fiction can be fun, but I find the reference section much more insightful. 😂
USD is down 9.7% so far this year. It fell ~13% from peaks in 2016 and 2020 and didn’t even break the uptrend. It fell ~38% from the high in 2001. Here’s a chart of an average vs the top 4 most traded currencies.
USD is down 9.7% so far this year. It fell ~13% from peaks in 2016 and 2020 and didn’t even break the uptrend. It fell ~38% from the high in 2001. Here’s a chart of an average vs the top 4 most traded currencies.