Greg Cordell
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gregorypcordell.bsky.social
Greg Cordell
@gregorypcordell.bsky.social
Army veteran; AT thru-hiker; CFA charterholder; LFC fan; football finance analysis here and on Substack (no paywall; link below).

https://gregcordell.substack.com/
Updated cash flow stmt estimates are provided as well, but note that figures are highly speculative:
- Cash generated from operations est of ~ £74m
- Cash outflow for investment est of ~ £228m (net player: £180m; capex: £48m)
- Cash inflow from financing est of ~ £154m (assumed £150m from Dynasty).
January 23, 2025 at 2:50 PM
To supplement P&L estimates, a note that I've estimated net fixed asset spend (net player spend + net infrastructure spend) to be ~ £211m, which would reflect a new club high. In particular, I've estimated player net spend in accts to be ~ £163m (much higher than the ~ £95m on Transfermarkt).
January 23, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Each of CFC and THFC saw total wages decrease by double digits (note: not in UCL), while MUFC and AFC (return to UCL) each saw doubt digit increases. Interestingly, LFC's wages increased by ~ 4% YOY (general expectation was a step down).

As a cohort, wages in aggregate increased by ~ 2%.
January 23, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Liverpool and Arsenal each exhibited sizeable matchday revenue growth, w/ Liverpool exceeding £100m for the first time.

On an aggregate basis, matchday revenue increased by ~ 10% YOY across the cohort.
January 23, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Three of six from the cohort experienced double digit YOY declines in broadcast revenue (due to missing out on UCL in 2023/24 after participating in 2022/23). In aggregate, broadcast revenue decreased ~ 4% YOY for Big 6 clubs. Arsenal again the club exhibiting standout growth within the group.
January 23, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Commercial growth was generally flat for the Manchester clubs, but each other Big 6 club exhibited 7%+ YOY growth (AFC the standout at ~ 30%).

Note that LFC categorize comm differently vs Deloitte and might report comm rev ~ £10m to £15m in accts (w/ MD and broad lower) if similar to prior years.
January 23, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Yes. I'll provide separate threads today w/ DFML summary data for PL clubs and 2023/24 LFC high level estimates.
January 23, 2025 at 2:28 PM
My est is ~ €145m if LFC win the final two league matches and advance to the final.

My interpretation of the 2024-2027 model is advancement of other PL clubs won't shift distributions in the same way as for 2021-2024. There is uncertainty on Euro Part Value Pillar, but I went slightly conservative.
December 11, 2024 at 4:44 AM
FWIW, attached is a figure with estimated 2024/25 UCL revenue to date based on UEFA's distribution circular. I have it at ~ €95m (~ £78m) w/ up to ~ €57m more in play based on performance.
December 11, 2024 at 2:22 AM
There is a distribution tranche for league phase position, w/ each position worth €275k. Therefore, finishing first ('36 shares') results in €9.9m in prize money that is additive to league phase per match and KO advancement bonuses.
December 11, 2024 at 12:46 AM
Plus there is a benefit to finishing as a stronger seed as it relates to the KO draw process / bracket. A lot of folks seem to be under the impression that there is no differentiation between first and eighth.
December 9, 2024 at 11:31 PM