Edward Walker
@gnuggat.bsky.social
Retired. 1993-2017 Exec Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet/Post-Soviet Affairs, Adj Assoc Prof Political Science.
Regardless of whether there’s any operational significance to this (doubt it), Putin will certainly assume this is just Trump bloviating. But we appear to be a long way from the heady days of the early Trump 2.0 bromance with Putin.
August 1, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Regardless of whether there’s any operational significance to this (doubt it), Putin will certainly assume this is just Trump bloviating. But we appear to be a long way from the heady days of the early Trump 2.0 bromance with Putin.
More evidence Trump *may*, in fact, be turning on RU and significantly upping economic pressure on it.
July 30, 2025 at 1:28 PM
More evidence Trump *may*, in fact, be turning on RU and significantly upping economic pressure on it.
*IF* this happens (100 percent tariff on countries buying RU oil in 48 +/- days), very big deal. Watch oil prices, as will suggest extent to which markets believe Trump is likely to follow through. So far not much movement for Brent crude (or in other markets AFAIK).
July 17, 2025 at 7:27 PM
*IF* this happens (100 percent tariff on countries buying RU oil in 48 +/- days), very big deal. Watch oil prices, as will suggest extent to which markets believe Trump is likely to follow through. So far not much movement for Brent crude (or in other markets AFAIK).
Been wondering the same, esp if the Israel-Iran War last a long time, as seems likely. That Inozemtsev article I just shared was obviously written before the jump in oil prices.
June 15, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Been wondering the same, esp if the Israel-Iran War last a long time, as seems likely. That Inozemtsev article I just shared was obviously written before the jump in oil prices.
Brent down another 4.28% today. Not a good sign for the US economy, the global economy, and especially the RU economy.
April 8, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Brent down another 4.28% today. Not a good sign for the US economy, the global economy, and especially the RU economy.
Well below “correction” territory.
April 4, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Well below “correction” territory.
If we get a significant US recession it will impact the RU economy by (inter alia) lowering oil prices. And the worse the recession, and the more widespread the impact around the world, the greater the impact on the price of oil. Down c 5% so far today.
April 3, 2025 at 2:40 PM
If we get a significant US recession it will impact the RU economy by (inter alia) lowering oil prices. And the worse the recession, and the more widespread the impact around the world, the greater the impact on the price of oil. Down c 5% so far today.
S&P is now down c 10% from peak, so a “correction” that’s understood as a reasonably reliable indicator of trouble ahead for the real economy. IMO an enormous amount is at stake re whether the US economy turns out to be in real trouble after these next two quarters or so of v low or negative growth.
March 11, 2025 at 2:56 PM
S&P is now down c 10% from peak, so a “correction” that’s understood as a reasonably reliable indicator of trouble ahead for the real economy. IMO an enormous amount is at stake re whether the US economy turns out to be in real trouble after these next two quarters or so of v low or negative growth.
Presumably the claim here is “the worst 50 days *for the stock market after an inauguration*. Smthg pretty pretty bad happened in early 2020 (which Trump also presided over). Re equities, also note early 2022 (Biden). For better or worse, the sell off so far isn’t particularly dramatic.
March 10, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Presumably the claim here is “the worst 50 days *for the stock market after an inauguration*. Smthg pretty pretty bad happened in early 2020 (which Trump also presided over). Re equities, also note early 2022 (Biden). For better or worse, the sell off so far isn’t particularly dramatic.
Smthg to watch re RU econ. Brent $ already down 8% YTD, 11.8% over 12 months. If tariffs/trade war and fiscal shock etc tank US econ (not that big an “if”), oil price will tank along with it. Another “be careful what you wish for” risk for RU. Also why a negative sum game is, well, negative sum.
March 5, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Smthg to watch re RU econ. Brent $ already down 8% YTD, 11.8% over 12 months. If tariffs/trade war and fiscal shock etc tank US econ (not that big an “if”), oil price will tank along with it. Another “be careful what you wish for” risk for RU. Also why a negative sum game is, well, negative sum.
Forgive a personal note on USAID. This is me on top of (I think) a USAF C-130 in 1961 in Somalia (my dad was posted there as a USFSO).The plane was bring emergency aid for a famine in Somalia’s Ogaden, organized by USAID, as I recall. Just one of countless such missions over the years. 😢
February 7, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Forgive a personal note on USAID. This is me on top of (I think) a USAF C-130 in 1961 in Somalia (my dad was posted there as a USFSO).The plane was bring emergency aid for a famine in Somalia’s Ogaden, organized by USAID, as I recall. Just one of countless such missions over the years. 😢