William Spaniel
@gametheory101.bsky.social
Europe deleted the part about the security guarantee being canceled if Ukraine strikes Moscow or Saint Petersburg. The only way that makes sense is if they are worried about a false flag attack. Can't commit a false flag attack to cancel the guarantee if no strike of any kind cancels it.
November 25, 2025 at 1:46 AM
Europe deleted the part about the security guarantee being canceled if Ukraine strikes Moscow or Saint Petersburg. The only way that makes sense is if they are worried about a false flag attack. Can't commit a false flag attack to cancel the guarantee if no strike of any kind cancels it.
One of the more interesting changes is that Europe wrote that the conflict will be "resolved" whereas Russia had it as "settled". This is worth noting because NATO's requirement for new members is to have their territorial conflicts "settled".
November 24, 2025 at 9:44 PM
One of the more interesting changes is that Europe wrote that the conflict will be "resolved" whereas Russia had it as "settled". This is worth noting because NATO's requirement for new members is to have their territorial conflicts "settled".
Update update: Senator Rounds with a delightfully vague response to the Rubio tweet.
November 23, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Update update: Senator Rounds with a delightfully vague response to the Rubio tweet.
Update: Rubio now says it is a U.S. plan.
November 23, 2025 at 2:24 AM
Update: Rubio now says it is a U.S. plan.
On the left: oil and gas attacks. On the right: attacks on electricity production and distribution. The latter only started ~6 weeks ago.
Ukraine is confident that its missiles and drones will hit their targets and has bombs to spare, to the point that it is now striking less valuable sites.
Ukraine is confident that its missiles and drones will hit their targets and has bombs to spare, to the point that it is now striking less valuable sites.
November 17, 2025 at 8:26 PM
On the left: oil and gas attacks. On the right: attacks on electricity production and distribution. The latter only started ~6 weeks ago.
Ukraine is confident that its missiles and drones will hit their targets and has bombs to spare, to the point that it is now striking less valuable sites.
Ukraine is confident that its missiles and drones will hit their targets and has bombs to spare, to the point that it is now striking less valuable sites.
Big yikes from YouTube's suggested thumbnails for tomorrow's video. There was a time when these would be all you could choose from!
November 14, 2025 at 4:45 AM
Big yikes from YouTube's suggested thumbnails for tomorrow's video. There was a time when these would be all you could choose from!
The USS Ford has arrived in the Caribbean, and Venezuela has mobilized some of its forces. This is the first real window where some serious military action could occur.
Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.
Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.
November 12, 2025 at 4:06 PM
The USS Ford has arrived in the Caribbean, and Venezuela has mobilized some of its forces. This is the first real window where some serious military action could occur.
Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.
Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.
Updated map of the current campaign's strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia, after two more last night.
November 4, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Updated map of the current campaign's strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia, after two more last night.
A House of Dynamite was great except:
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
October 28, 2025 at 12:16 AM
A House of Dynamite was great except:
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
Update to Ukraine's energy infrastructure sabotage campaign, current through October 19. The map getting VERY cluttered.
October 19, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Update to Ukraine's energy infrastructure sabotage campaign, current through October 19. The map getting VERY cluttered.
After a quiet few days on the energy infrastructure front (but not weapons production facilities), Ukraine struck a couple places last night.
October 9, 2025 at 7:52 PM
After a quiet few days on the energy infrastructure front (but not weapons production facilities), Ukraine struck a couple places last night.
Time lapse of every suspected Ukrainian attack on Russian energy infrastructure that I could find. I didn't fully appreciate the extent of the damage until I saw all of the Xs accumulate.
October 6, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Time lapse of every suspected Ukrainian attack on Russian energy infrastructure that I could find. I didn't fully appreciate the extent of the damage until I saw all of the Xs accumulate.
Another night, another fire at a Russian refinery, this one about a 900 kilometers flight. Inset image is from NASA's fire tracker.
October 5, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Another night, another fire at a Russian refinery, this one about a 900 kilometers flight. Inset image is from NASA's fire tracker.
Trump and Zelensky had a brief meeting at the United Nations today. The most important takeaway I got from it is that the U.N. has the same taste in discount Swedish furniture that I do.
September 23, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Trump and Zelensky had a brief meeting at the United Nations today. The most important takeaway I got from it is that the U.N. has the same taste in discount Swedish furniture that I do.
Here's another. Same idea but longer and even more blue sky.
September 15, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Here's another. Same idea but longer and even more blue sky.
I gather a lot of stock images/video. Usually I do it in a hurry. Rarely I find something so seemingly unreal that I would think if it was fake if I did not know any better and I just sit back in awe. Today I had one of those moments.
September 15, 2025 at 6:15 PM
I gather a lot of stock images/video. Usually I do it in a hurry. Rarely I find something so seemingly unreal that I would think if it was fake if I did not know any better and I just sit back in awe. Today I had one of those moments.
As everyone brushes off their copies of the North Atlantic Treaty this morning to see what the heck Article 4 is, we all discover the document's only major flaw: its lack of Oxford commas.
September 10, 2025 at 2:10 PM
As everyone brushes off their copies of the North Atlantic Treaty this morning to see what the heck Article 4 is, we all discover the document's only major flaw: its lack of Oxford commas.
Also, there is this updated map of oil infrastructure (non-military, non-storage) since Ukraine's map began. Two more added since I last posted. Some flames are jittered because of Ukraine hitting the same location multiple times.
September 8, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Also, there is this updated map of oil infrastructure (non-military, non-storage) since Ukraine's map began. Two more added since I last posted. Some flames are jittered because of Ukraine hitting the same location multiple times.
In sum, I would not read the Politico report and conclude that the United States is about to turtle up in the Western Hemisphere. That may end being the case, and what is happening in Venezuela suggests some form of that may be happening.
September 7, 2025 at 3:52 PM
In sum, I would not read the Politico report and conclude that the United States is about to turtle up in the Western Hemisphere. That may end being the case, and what is happening in Venezuela suggests some form of that may be happening.
Those threats are not just coming from random places. They are threats from China and Russia (and Iran and North Korea). So the DIA analysis is emphasizing homeland risks, but the imperative is still on stopping those countries (plus non-state actors) from committing attacks on the U.S. homeland.
September 7, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Those threats are not just coming from random places. They are threats from China and Russia (and Iran and North Korea). So the DIA analysis is emphasizing homeland risks, but the imperative is still on stopping those countries (plus non-state actors) from committing attacks on the U.S. homeland.
The topline substantive chapter is indeed on the U.S. homeland. This marked a break from the Biden Administration, and I could see how a U.S. National Defense Strategy might do the same. But if you read it, two of the first three things discussed are missile threats and drones.
September 7, 2025 at 3:52 PM
The topline substantive chapter is indeed on the U.S. homeland. This marked a break from the Biden Administration, and I could see how a U.S. National Defense Strategy might do the same. But if you read it, two of the first three things discussed are missile threats and drones.
However, that interpretation runs contrary to basically everything that the administration has produced and done thus far. That ranges from Under Sec for Policy Bridge Colby's fundamental concern about China, to U.S. actions in Yemen and Iran this year.
September 7, 2025 at 3:52 PM
However, that interpretation runs contrary to basically everything that the administration has produced and done thus far. That ranges from Under Sec for Policy Bridge Colby's fundamental concern about China, to U.S. actions in Yemen and Iran this year.
The common reaction, including from Politico, is that the Pentagon wants to retreat to a Monroe Doctrine posture and ignore the world around the United States. That may very well be the case, and it is a common interpretation of "America First".
September 7, 2025 at 3:52 PM
The common reaction, including from Politico, is that the Pentagon wants to retreat to a Monroe Doctrine posture and ignore the world around the United States. That may very well be the case, and it is a common interpretation of "America First".
My best efforts to track all of Ukraine's successful attacks on energy infrastructure over the current campaign. Only production and transport included, not fuel storage.
September 5, 2025 at 3:40 PM
My best efforts to track all of Ukraine's successful attacks on energy infrastructure over the current campaign. Only production and transport included, not fuel storage.
Also, an update to an increasingly messy map of the world at war.
September 3, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Also, an update to an increasingly messy map of the world at war.