Currently, the hires rate is depressed, which makes the downside risk of higher layoffs all the greater. If layoffs pick up while hiring remains weak, unemployment will quickly spike. This makes layoffs a key indicator to watch when the #JOLTS data are released next week on December 9.
#EconSky

In the meantime, we can look to second-best data from Indeed on job postings. So far, the latest data suggest little change in job openings. On the other hand, job cut announcements, while volatile, appear to be slowly rising, according to the most recent Challenger Report.

On December 9, the BLS will release data for September and October from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Currently, the latest #JOLTS data are only available through August, shown in detail on @epi.org's JOLTS analysis page: www.epi.org/indicators/j...

ADP’s monthly report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for November. The most recent BLS data only available to September also shows slowing job growth. When we get the latest data on December 16, I’ll be looking closely to see it reflects the trends shown here.
#NumbersDay

These data are clearly inferior to the datasets that have historically been collected and analyzed by the nonpartisan, expert professionals who work at federal statistical agencies, but they still provide some insights into the direction the economy is moving.
www.epi.org/publication/...
#EconSky

Trump fired the BLS commissioner for accurately reporting data that the administration found politically inconvenient. Given such unprecedented threats to statistical agencies, @epi.org assembled a Data Accountability Dashboard to tracks next-best data from other sources.
www.epi.org/publication/...

BLS and the Census Bureau provide the gold standard data that are crucial for understanding the labor market. Without a timely release, the Federal Reserve will meet next week without the best data on the state of the labor market, harming their ability to make a data-informed decisions.
#NumbersDay

Post shutdown, we now have a full swath of updated #jobsday charts!

Huge shoutout to @joe-fast.bsky.social and Emma Cohn for their excellent data pulling and charting and @jenxabella.bsky.social for web expertise.

For more @epi.org analysis, please visit: www.epi.org/indicators/u...

#EconSky

In sum, the delayed #jobsreport for September is solid. Job growth was decent while prime-age EPOPs held steady. Concerning are job losses in 2 of 3 summer months—the first such stretch since early 2020—and the recent slow rise in unemployment, particularly for Black and young workers.
#EconSky

One of my favorite measures of the labor market in the household survey is the prime-age employment-to-population ratio because it looks at the heart of the labor market, those most likely to be working—not in school/retired—and tells us the share of those with a job. My read says it remains strong.

In addition to Black unemployment, I've been keeping my eye on the unemployment rate for young workers. With depressed hires, I'm concerned about the ability for young workers to break into the labor market. Their unemployment rate has been steadily rising for much of the last 2 1/2 years.
#EconSky

The household survey is a useful read on the labor market for various demographic groups. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest since 2021. While a more volatile series, the data show high Black unemployment, holding steady at 7.5% in September, and 1.5 ppts higher than May.
#EconSky

Federal cuts continue to cost jobs as federal employment fell another 3k in Sept. Federal employment is down 97k since January. The full extent of the federal job losses won't be seen until we get data for October after upwards of 100k additional federal workers left payrolls after Sept 30.
#EconSky

Job gains were strongest in leisure and hospitality and health care while there were losses in transportation and warehousing and professional and business services. Manufacturing, mining, and the federal government also registered losses. On net, 119k jobs added in September.
#EconSky #NumbersDay

Even with the faster than expected growth in payroll employment for September, downward revisions for July and August meant that combined July+Aug job growth was 33k less than originally reported. Over the last three months, job growth averaged 62k with small losses in both June and August.
#EconSky

In the meantime, check out the latest #economic data from the states on unemployment insurance claims. bsky.app/profile/elis...
#NumbersDay #EconSky

For additional context on the value of the UI claims data when the typically comprehensive, trustworthy, and timely jobs day data is unavailable, please see: www.epi.org/blog/amid-th...

And for the latest @epi.org UI charts and data, please visit: www.epi.org/indicators/u...

#EconSky #NumbersDay

Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 238k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky

Initial UI claims by federal workers for the week ending Nov 8 were lower than the prior week but still far higher than claims made in March. Over 5k federal workers applied for UI last week. These numbers will continue to fall as federal workers return to work (and eventually receive their pay).