Elise Gould
@elisegould.bsky.social
Economist, bike commuter, ultimate frisbee player. Studying wages, jobs, and economic inequality. Striving to be part of the solution.
https://www.epi.org/people/elise-gould/
https://www.epi.org/people/elise-gould/
When jobs expand with a growing labor market, hires exceed separations (quits, layoffs, etc.). In the federal sector, separations exceeded hires every month since Jan, a total of 158k. The spike of 80k separations in Sept was expected given the large number deferred resignations that took effect.
December 9, 2025 at 3:57 PM
When jobs expand with a growing labor market, hires exceed separations (quits, layoffs, etc.). In the federal sector, separations exceeded hires every month since Jan, a total of 158k. The spike of 80k separations in Sept was expected given the large number deferred resignations that took effect.
Not only will the unemployment rate spike if layoffs continue to rise as hiring remains depressed, but it may explain why the young adult unemployment has been rising as it becomes increasingly difficult to break into the labor market as employers and workers sit tight under economic uncertainty.
December 9, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Not only will the unemployment rate spike if layoffs continue to rise as hiring remains depressed, but it may explain why the young adult unemployment has been rising as it becomes increasingly difficult to break into the labor market as employers and workers sit tight under economic uncertainty.
Low hires have made the downside risk of higher layoffs all the greater because laid-off workers have less opportunity to find a job. If layoffs pick up while hiring remains weak, unemployment can quickly spike. Unfortunately, we've seen the number of layoffs edge up over the last 2 months.
#EconSky
#EconSky
December 9, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Low hires have made the downside risk of higher layoffs all the greater because laid-off workers have less opportunity to find a job. If layoffs pick up while hiring remains weak, unemployment can quickly spike. Unfortunately, we've seen the number of layoffs edge up over the last 2 months.
#EconSky
#EconSky
After a dearth of economic data, the latest #JOLTS report is out this morning for both Sept and Oct 2025.
Main findings:
- hires rate continues to be depressed, at rates we haven't seen since 2013
- quits rate lowest since 2014
- layoffs ticked up slightly
Note: these ignore low points in 2020
Main findings:
- hires rate continues to be depressed, at rates we haven't seen since 2013
- quits rate lowest since 2014
- layoffs ticked up slightly
Note: these ignore low points in 2020
December 9, 2025 at 3:24 PM
After a dearth of economic data, the latest #JOLTS report is out this morning for both Sept and Oct 2025.
Main findings:
- hires rate continues to be depressed, at rates we haven't seen since 2013
- quits rate lowest since 2014
- layoffs ticked up slightly
Note: these ignore low points in 2020
Main findings:
- hires rate continues to be depressed, at rates we haven't seen since 2013
- quits rate lowest since 2014
- layoffs ticked up slightly
Note: these ignore low points in 2020
Currently, the hires rate is depressed, which makes the downside risk of higher layoffs all the greater. If layoffs pick up while hiring remains weak, unemployment will quickly spike. This makes layoffs a key indicator to watch when the #JOLTS data are released next week on December 9.
#EconSky
#EconSky
December 5, 2025 at 8:01 PM
In the meantime, we can look to second-best data from Indeed on job postings. So far, the latest data suggest little change in job openings. On the other hand, job cut announcements, while volatile, appear to be slowly rising, according to the most recent Challenger Report.
December 5, 2025 at 7:58 PM
In the meantime, we can look to second-best data from Indeed on job postings. So far, the latest data suggest little change in job openings. On the other hand, job cut announcements, while volatile, appear to be slowly rising, according to the most recent Challenger Report.
ADP’s monthly report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for November. The most recent BLS data only available to September also shows slowing job growth. When we get the latest data on December 16, I’ll be looking closely to see it reflects the trends shown here.
#NumbersDay
#NumbersDay
December 5, 2025 at 7:53 PM
ADP’s monthly report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for November. The most recent BLS data only available to September also shows slowing job growth. When we get the latest data on December 16, I’ll be looking closely to see it reflects the trends shown here.
#NumbersDay
#NumbersDay
In sum, the delayed #jobsreport for September is solid. Job growth was decent while prime-age EPOPs held steady. Concerning are job losses in 2 of 3 summer months—the first such stretch since early 2020—and the recent slow rise in unemployment, particularly for Black and young workers.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 3:15 PM
In sum, the delayed #jobsreport for September is solid. Job growth was decent while prime-age EPOPs held steady. Concerning are job losses in 2 of 3 summer months—the first such stretch since early 2020—and the recent slow rise in unemployment, particularly for Black and young workers.
#EconSky
#EconSky
One of my favorite measures of the labor market in the household survey is the prime-age employment-to-population ratio because it looks at the heart of the labor market, those most likely to be working—not in school/retired—and tells us the share of those with a job. My read says it remains strong.
November 20, 2025 at 2:55 PM
One of my favorite measures of the labor market in the household survey is the prime-age employment-to-population ratio because it looks at the heart of the labor market, those most likely to be working—not in school/retired—and tells us the share of those with a job. My read says it remains strong.
In addition to Black unemployment, I've been keeping my eye on the unemployment rate for young workers. With depressed hires, I'm concerned about the ability for young workers to break into the labor market. Their unemployment rate has been steadily rising for much of the last 2 1/2 years.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 2:36 PM
In addition to Black unemployment, I've been keeping my eye on the unemployment rate for young workers. With depressed hires, I'm concerned about the ability for young workers to break into the labor market. Their unemployment rate has been steadily rising for much of the last 2 1/2 years.
#EconSky
#EconSky
The household survey is a useful read on the labor market for various demographic groups. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest since 2021. While a more volatile series, the data show high Black unemployment, holding steady at 7.5% in September, and 1.5 ppts higher than May.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 2:28 PM
The household survey is a useful read on the labor market for various demographic groups. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest since 2021. While a more volatile series, the data show high Black unemployment, holding steady at 7.5% in September, and 1.5 ppts higher than May.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Federal cuts continue to cost jobs as federal employment fell another 3k in Sept. Federal employment is down 97k since January. The full extent of the federal job losses won't be seen until we get data for October after upwards of 100k additional federal workers left payrolls after Sept 30.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Federal cuts continue to cost jobs as federal employment fell another 3k in Sept. Federal employment is down 97k since January. The full extent of the federal job losses won't be seen until we get data for October after upwards of 100k additional federal workers left payrolls after Sept 30.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Job gains were strongest in leisure and hospitality and health care while there were losses in transportation and warehousing and professional and business services. Manufacturing, mining, and the federal government also registered losses. On net, 119k jobs added in September.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
#EconSky #NumbersDay
November 20, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Job gains were strongest in leisure and hospitality and health care while there were losses in transportation and warehousing and professional and business services. Manufacturing, mining, and the federal government also registered losses. On net, 119k jobs added in September.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
#EconSky #NumbersDay
Even with the faster than expected growth in payroll employment for September, downward revisions for July and August meant that combined July+Aug job growth was 33k less than originally reported. Over the last three months, job growth averaged 62k with small losses in both June and August.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Even with the faster than expected growth in payroll employment for September, downward revisions for July and August meant that combined July+Aug job growth was 33k less than originally reported. Over the last three months, job growth averaged 62k with small losses in both June and August.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Finally, the first #JobsDay since the shutdown! The latest data out today is for September before the shutdown began on October 1.
Highlights:
- payroll employment up 119k for Sept while August change was revised down to below zero
- unemployment rate ticked up 3 months in a row to 4.4%
#EconSky
Highlights:
- payroll employment up 119k for Sept while August change was revised down to below zero
- unemployment rate ticked up 3 months in a row to 4.4%
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 1:42 PM
More data release dates provided today at www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
After tomorrow's release of September 2025 #Jobs data, I'll be looking forward to #JOLTS on December 9 and Jobs on Dec 16. These will be highly unusual with catchup data on the establishment side.
#NumbersDay #EconSky @epi.org
After tomorrow's release of September 2025 #Jobs data, I'll be looking forward to #JOLTS on December 9 and Jobs on Dec 16. These will be highly unusual with catchup data on the establishment side.
#NumbersDay #EconSky @epi.org
November 19, 2025 at 7:13 PM
More data release dates provided today at www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
After tomorrow's release of September 2025 #Jobs data, I'll be looking forward to #JOLTS on December 9 and Jobs on Dec 16. These will be highly unusual with catchup data on the establishment side.
#NumbersDay #EconSky @epi.org
After tomorrow's release of September 2025 #Jobs data, I'll be looking forward to #JOLTS on December 9 and Jobs on Dec 16. These will be highly unusual with catchup data on the establishment side.
#NumbersDay #EconSky @epi.org
BLS operations are back up! Release dates have been set for some missing reports. The next #jobsday will be Thursday, November 20 where we will get to see data for September 2025.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
November 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
BLS operations are back up! Release dates have been set for some missing reports. The next #jobsday will be Thursday, November 20 where we will get to see data for September 2025.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 238k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 13, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 238k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Initial UI claims by federal workers for the week ending Nov 8 were lower than the prior week but still far higher than claims made in March. Over 5k federal workers applied for UI last week. These numbers will continue to fall as federal workers return to work (and eventually receive their pay).
November 13, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Initial UI claims by federal workers for the week ending Nov 8 were lower than the prior week but still far higher than claims made in March. Over 5k federal workers applied for UI last week. These numbers will continue to fall as federal workers return to work (and eventually receive their pay).
The large uptick in federal unemployment insurance claims in the initial spate of layoffs last spring have been overshadowed nearly 10 fold by the UI claims of federal workers after the end of the fiscal year, in the longest ever government shutdown.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
November 13, 2025 at 11:13 PM
The large uptick in federal unemployment insurance claims in the initial spate of layoffs last spring have been overshadowed nearly 10 fold by the UI claims of federal workers after the end of the fiscal year, in the longest ever government shutdown.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 216k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 6, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 216k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Continued UI claims for federal workers were particularly acute in the DC metro area. Continued claims rose for federal workers in Maryland and DC by over 1000% compared to the same period last year. #EconSky
November 6, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Continued UI claims for federal workers were particularly acute in the DC metro area. Continued claims rose for federal workers in Maryland and DC by over 1000% compared to the same period last year. #EconSky
On top of the thousands of federal workers who filed for unemployment insurance after September 30, when massive numbers of federal workers left payrolls after layoffs or because they were furloughed, an additional 7,000+ federal workers filed for unemployment insurance last week. #NumbersDay
November 6, 2025 at 10:14 PM
On top of the thousands of federal workers who filed for unemployment insurance after September 30, when massive numbers of federal workers left payrolls after layoffs or because they were furloughed, an additional 7,000+ federal workers filed for unemployment insurance last week. #NumbersDay
Tomorrow marks the first time the federal government has failed to release a jobs report two months in a row. Without these data, unemployment insurance claims provide the most up-to-date read on the labor market. As the shutdown drags on, continued UI claims by federal workers hits 30k.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 6, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Tomorrow marks the first time the federal government has failed to release a jobs report two months in a row. Without these data, unemployment insurance claims provide the most up-to-date read on the labor market. As the shutdown drags on, continued UI claims by federal workers hits 30k.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask labor market weakness in the DC metro area along with notable increases in continued claims in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Oregon.
October 24, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask labor market weakness in the DC metro area along with notable increases in continued claims in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Oregon.