That being said, by far the most likely outcome for the Giants is being announced with the 15th overall pick. They’ve proven with Eldridge and Kilen in recent years that they’ll take the fallers. In a deep draft class, someone good may just fall to them.

Since 2014, the Giants have had 7 of their 12 first round picks debut. Ramos and Bailey have turned into regular contributors, albeit more in the second division regular range. Eldridge just debuted. Beede, Bickford, Shaw out of the league. Bart's a backup catcher as the #2 pick.

The Giants, of course, have not found very much success at the top of the draft lately, in large part because they've been stuck in the 10-19 range. Jumping into the top-6 of what projects to be a strong draft class would be a great opportunity to land a homegrown star talent.

Gut check guess is that Bader is trying to use the Profar contract as a base? Profar (for now obvious reasons) saw a lot of sticky gains. Bader’s gains are encouraging but not necessarily sticky. It’s possible they sign him and he winds up the weak side of a platoon anyway.

Bader's last three seasons

Bat speed: 70.8 MPH➡️71.2 MPH➡️73.5 MPH
Barrel%: 5.3%➡️6.4%➡️10.2%
90th EV percentile: 45th➡️46th➡️75th

+ speed, + defense (though probably not a CF anymore). Walk rate jumped up but that's probably a fluke. ~2 WAR contributor

He hasn’t looked like a MLB-quality player in four years

I think Ford winds up being an OBP driven utility guy. Ferrer is nasty

…that’s 16th out of 437

Matos is at the very bottom of the leaderboard (2023-25) that's filled with guys who have 2-4x the number of innings played in the outfield. He's horrendous.

Matos has been equally bad if not worse at his position

Something has to have gone seriously wrong to where they're giving 26-27 y/o Jerar Encarnacion (175 PA) a longer runway

There's a hundred interesting relievers and if the Giants take one we can break that dude down when we get there. Griff McGarry is the highest name value guy, but if the Phillies don't like his command then it's probably not going to play

The most interesting R5 names will be the pitchers. Cameron Weston might be a SP option if he's available. Plus breaker he throws 43.5% of the time and a 91 MPH sinker that gets 18" run. Might get taken earlier but very Landen Roupp

Andrew Pintar would fit the RHH OF platoon speed/defense archetype they've been looking for. BA does point out that OFers have rarely gotten picked in the R5 since 2020. Yohendrick Pinango might be one who does– 23 y/o who makes lots of contact and hits the ball hard.