Dom White
@domw.bsky.social
Chief economist at Absolute Strategy Research in London. But all of the nonsense I spout on here is mine and mine alone. RTs are not endorsements unless they are.
The aspect of all this I find super interesting is how this all stacks up at the regional level. Distance should be an impediment to trade, so trade should grow faster within regions than between regions. China's entry to the WTO broke that for a while from the early 2000s to early 2010s.
November 28, 2025 at 10:37 AM
The aspect of all this I find super interesting is how this all stacks up at the regional level. Distance should be an impediment to trade, so trade should grow faster within regions than between regions. China's entry to the WTO broke that for a while from the early 2000s to early 2010s.
Apologies in advance, but I'm gonna get a bit nerdy on yo ass.
Global trade isn't *ackchyually* falling. It's falling in nominal terms vs GDP because the relative price of traded goods declines over time. Services exports have also continued to rise even as global goods trade has stagnated.
Global trade isn't *ackchyually* falling. It's falling in nominal terms vs GDP because the relative price of traded goods declines over time. Services exports have also continued to rise even as global goods trade has stagnated.
November 28, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Apologies in advance, but I'm gonna get a bit nerdy on yo ass.
Global trade isn't *ackchyually* falling. It's falling in nominal terms vs GDP because the relative price of traded goods declines over time. Services exports have also continued to rise even as global goods trade has stagnated.
Global trade isn't *ackchyually* falling. It's falling in nominal terms vs GDP because the relative price of traded goods declines over time. Services exports have also continued to rise even as global goods trade has stagnated.
Just trying to recreate what you've got. Do these numbers look right? Suggests a bit less tightening this fiscal year (0.9%pts vs 1.5) and a bit more in FY26-27 (0.8%pts vs 0.5).
November 27, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Just trying to recreate what you've got. Do these numbers look right? Suggests a bit less tightening this fiscal year (0.9%pts vs 1.5) and a bit more in FY26-27 (0.8%pts vs 0.5).
Feels like the most important Budget chart from a market point of view. Same game being played again.
November 27, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Feels like the most important Budget chart from a market point of view. Same game being played again.
Sent it to my daughter and this was her reply. Doesn’t always work!
November 27, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Sent it to my daughter and this was her reply. Doesn’t always work!
All of a sudden Chris Waller is favourite to get the Fed Chair nomination.
November 25, 2025 at 4:07 PM
All of a sudden Chris Waller is favourite to get the Fed Chair nomination.
A pretty good survey, beneath that headline figure.
November 24, 2025 at 3:39 PM
A pretty good survey, beneath that headline figure.
Confidence is a preference for the habitual voyeur
Of what is known as …
Of what is known as …
November 23, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Confidence is a preference for the habitual voyeur
Of what is known as …
Of what is known as …
Yeah, been beaten loads of times
November 21, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Yeah, been beaten loads of times
This was before the latest wicket to fall.
November 21, 2025 at 9:46 AM
This was before the latest wicket to fall.
Just pasting in a higher frequency chart here. Because I suspect a lot of people will say March 2000, but there was a 30%-ish rally between May and July. The final capitulation was in September/October, which coincided with weakness in the economic data.
November 18, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Just pasting in a higher frequency chart here. Because I suspect a lot of people will say March 2000, but there was a 30%-ish rally between May and July. The final capitulation was in September/October, which coincided with weakness in the economic data.
Someone call the police, there’s been a triple homicide.
(Great post though.)
(Great post though.)
November 16, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Someone call the police, there’s been a triple homicide.
(Great post though.)
(Great post though.)
Get the feeling a few of us need a good drink this evening. These come highly recommended.
November 14, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Get the feeling a few of us need a good drink this evening. These come highly recommended.
Or as Drake would say:
November 14, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Or as Drake would say:
3. The thing that seems to be missed a lot in this debate (and something Rob mentioned earlier in the week), is that the lower end of the income spectrum has seen gains in net wealth that are proportionally larger than the top end in recent years.
November 13, 2025 at 2:37 PM
3. The thing that seems to be missed a lot in this debate (and something Rob mentioned earlier in the week), is that the lower end of the income spectrum has seen gains in net wealth that are proportionally larger than the top end in recent years.
2. It's a mixed picture when you look at rates of change too. Some data show faster growth in spending at the top end of the income spectrum, other data show a more balanced picture.
November 13, 2025 at 2:31 PM
2. It's a mixed picture when you look at rates of change too. Some data show faster growth in spending at the top end of the income spectrum, other data show a more balanced picture.
[email protected] was kind enough to cover something I wrote this week about the K-shaped US consumer. www.ft.com/content/c35a...
Just to add a few charts:
1. I don't believe the Moody's data that indicates the top 10% account for 50% of consumption. It's wildly at odds with other data.
Just to add a few charts:
1. I don't believe the Moody's data that indicates the top 10% account for 50% of consumption. It's wildly at odds with other data.
November 13, 2025 at 2:29 PM
[email protected] was kind enough to cover something I wrote this week about the K-shaped US consumer. www.ft.com/content/c35a...
Just to add a few charts:
1. I don't believe the Moody's data that indicates the top 10% account for 50% of consumption. It's wildly at odds with other data.
Just to add a few charts:
1. I don't believe the Moody's data that indicates the top 10% account for 50% of consumption. It's wildly at odds with other data.
It's crazy how much the answer to a simple question like 'how confident are American consumers feeling about their current situation?' varies depending on how you measure the concept.
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
November 10, 2025 at 11:27 AM
It's crazy how much the answer to a simple question like 'how confident are American consumers feeling about their current situation?' varies depending on how you measure the concept.
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
The AI build-out is truly staggering.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
November 7, 2025 at 8:37 AM
The AI build-out is truly staggering.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
This guy really making a string of brave predictions today.
November 5, 2025 at 8:42 PM
This guy really making a string of brave predictions today.
10yr Gilt yield now close to year-to-date lows (it touched 4.38% earlier). Much more important than the 30yr in determining overall funding costs (outstanding stock has a weighted-average maturity of ~14 years).
November 4, 2025 at 9:58 AM
10yr Gilt yield now close to year-to-date lows (it touched 4.38% earlier). Much more important than the 30yr in determining overall funding costs (outstanding stock has a weighted-average maturity of ~14 years).
