Diane Swonk
@dianeswonk.bsky.social
Chief Economist, KPMG, opinions my own
Health insurance was poised to rise at fastest pace in 15 years prior to the end of the ACA Covid-era subsidies. Many consumers got their first glance at those increases via their health plans enrollments for the year ahead, which is done in November.
The technical term is heart breaking. 💔
The technical term is heart breaking. 💔
November 25, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Health insurance was poised to rise at fastest pace in 15 years prior to the end of the ACA Covid-era subsidies. Many consumers got their first glance at those increases via their health plans enrollments for the year ahead, which is done in November.
The technical term is heart breaking. 💔
The technical term is heart breaking. 💔
U Michigan was worst measure on recon in part due to change in methodology, but still bad. The Conference Board survey was worst since April!
Plans on big ticket spending & vacation down, while worries about health care costs soaring.
Plans on big ticket spending & vacation down, while worries about health care costs soaring.
November 25, 2025 at 5:43 PM
U Michigan was worst measure on recon in part due to change in methodology, but still bad. The Conference Board survey was worst since April!
Plans on big ticket spending & vacation down, while worries about health care costs soaring.
Plans on big ticket spending & vacation down, while worries about health care costs soaring.
Talking to different industries, they are reporting tough decisions between margin loss or loss in demand due to price hike.
We saw margins in vehicle take a double-digit blow in two of three months over summer and prices still crossed the psychological $50K on vehicles.
We saw margins in vehicle take a double-digit blow in two of three months over summer and prices still crossed the psychological $50K on vehicles.
November 25, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Talking to different industries, they are reporting tough decisions between margin loss or loss in demand due to price hike.
We saw margins in vehicle take a double-digit blow in two of three months over summer and prices still crossed the psychological $50K on vehicles.
We saw margins in vehicle take a double-digit blow in two of three months over summer and prices still crossed the psychological $50K on vehicles.
That helps explain layoffs, with the exception of areas buoyed by the K-shaped economy, which is now in jeopardy.
Growth in 3Q likely to come in close to mid-3% without many jobs.
4Q will be weak due to shutdown. Some losses will be recouped in 2026 but Fed will not wait for that to occur.
Growth in 3Q likely to come in close to mid-3% without many jobs.
4Q will be weak due to shutdown. Some losses will be recouped in 2026 but Fed will not wait for that to occur.
November 25, 2025 at 2:21 PM
That helps explain layoffs, with the exception of areas buoyed by the K-shaped economy, which is now in jeopardy.
Growth in 3Q likely to come in close to mid-3% without many jobs.
4Q will be weak due to shutdown. Some losses will be recouped in 2026 but Fed will not wait for that to occur.
Growth in 3Q likely to come in close to mid-3% without many jobs.
4Q will be weak due to shutdown. Some losses will be recouped in 2026 but Fed will not wait for that to occur.
I would opt to wait out the CPI and jobs reports of the week after and move inter meeting if warranted.
There is a lot of noise at due to shutdown. Having even a little less would be worth it in these unpredictable times. I am glad I turned such a position down, more than once. Hard.
There is a lot of noise at due to shutdown. Having even a little less would be worth it in these unpredictable times. I am glad I turned such a position down, more than once. Hard.
November 25, 2025 at 1:32 PM
I would opt to wait out the CPI and jobs reports of the week after and move inter meeting if warranted.
There is a lot of noise at due to shutdown. Having even a little less would be worth it in these unpredictable times. I am glad I turned such a position down, more than once. Hard.
There is a lot of noise at due to shutdown. Having even a little less would be worth it in these unpredictable times. I am glad I turned such a position down, more than once. Hard.
- it can be a rule in a world that seems to shun old rules… but
is more powerful than models rooted in a world that no longer exists.
Policy now changes more rapidly, which is its own roller coaster. I once liked to ride roller coasters w/my hands in the air. Now I stay with my feet on the ground.
is more powerful than models rooted in a world that no longer exists.
Policy now changes more rapidly, which is its own roller coaster. I once liked to ride roller coasters w/my hands in the air. Now I stay with my feet on the ground.
November 25, 2025 at 1:18 PM
- it can be a rule in a world that seems to shun old rules… but
is more powerful than models rooted in a world that no longer exists.
Policy now changes more rapidly, which is its own roller coaster. I once liked to ride roller coasters w/my hands in the air. Now I stay with my feet on the ground.
is more powerful than models rooted in a world that no longer exists.
Policy now changes more rapidly, which is its own roller coaster. I once liked to ride roller coasters w/my hands in the air. Now I stay with my feet on the ground.
He was visibly uncomfortable with divisions at the meeting & struck a more dovish tone on October 29.
The data or lack of it prior to the meeting will still play an outsized role in the final decision.
That is both the strength and the weakness of “data dependence”-
The data or lack of it prior to the meeting will still play an outsized role in the final decision.
That is both the strength and the weakness of “data dependence”-
November 25, 2025 at 1:18 PM
He was visibly uncomfortable with divisions at the meeting & struck a more dovish tone on October 29.
The data or lack of it prior to the meeting will still play an outsized role in the final decision.
That is both the strength and the weakness of “data dependence”-
The data or lack of it prior to the meeting will still play an outsized role in the final decision.
That is both the strength and the weakness of “data dependence”-
If affluent households and the few firms that made them more affluent, stop spending, demand will crater, which may tame inflation - I have my own doubts.
November 25, 2025 at 1:18 PM
If affluent households and the few firms that made them more affluent, stop spending, demand will crater, which may tame inflation - I have my own doubts.
My own view is that the waffling we have seen in the stock market has contributed to the push for a cut by the Board and Williams, not because the Fed should cut to shore up gains, but because we have become
too dependent on affluent households with large stock portfolios to buoy the economy.
too dependent on affluent households with large stock portfolios to buoy the economy.
November 25, 2025 at 1:18 PM
My own view is that the waffling we have seen in the stock market has contributed to the push for a cut by the Board and Williams, not because the Fed should cut to shore up gains, but because we have become
too dependent on affluent households with large stock portfolios to buoy the economy.
too dependent on affluent households with large stock portfolios to buoy the economy.
He worked behind the scenes to sway the views of those in his inner circle to cut, including Vice Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee @NewYorkFed President Williams.
November 25, 2025 at 1:18 PM
He worked behind the scenes to sway the views of those in his inner circle to cut, including Vice Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee @NewYorkFed President Williams.
Stumbled onto Alfred Nobel of Nobel Prize awards. He used a one-legged stool to ensure workers making nitroglycerin did not fall asleep. 😱
Begs the question…how long were their hours?
www.nobelprize.org/alfred-nobel...
Begs the question…how long were their hours?
www.nobelprize.org/alfred-nobel...
Alfred Nobel in Scotland - NobelPrize.org
www.nobelprize.org
November 22, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Stumbled onto Alfred Nobel of Nobel Prize awards. He used a one-legged stool to ensure workers making nitroglycerin did not fall asleep. 😱
Begs the question…how long were their hours?
www.nobelprize.org/alfred-nobel...
Begs the question…how long were their hours?
www.nobelprize.org/alfred-nobel...
The Fed doesn’t reschedule meetings but could wait a week to make a slightly less contentious decision. An unusual move in usual times. Much is in flux.
November 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The Fed doesn’t reschedule meetings but could wait a week to make a slightly less contentious decision. An unusual move in usual times. Much is in flux.
…of inflation or worse, stagflation. The lessons of the 1970s suggest that the Fed cut too soon amidst a supply shock, which made the stagflation worse. We do not know if that would be the case today. It seems prudent to wait a week.
November 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
…of inflation or worse, stagflation. The lessons of the 1970s suggest that the Fed cut too soon amidst a supply shock, which made the stagflation worse. We do not know if that would be the case today. It seems prudent to wait a week.
We are in a place where there are no risk-free policy options. Inflation hits 100% of households, unemployment hits a few percent - the two together are the worst of all worlds. If the losses in employment are structural, then rate cuts with fiscal stimulus could risk a more persistent bout..
November 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
We are in a place where there are no risk-free policy options. Inflation hits 100% of households, unemployment hits a few percent - the two together are the worst of all worlds. If the losses in employment are structural, then rate cuts with fiscal stimulus could risk a more persistent bout..
The Fed doesn’t have the tools to fix inequality - interest rate cuts accrue more to owners of capital than workers - but that doesn’t change the fact that affluent households are holding the economy up. If they fail, the pain in the labor market will be worse.
November 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The Fed doesn’t have the tools to fix inequality - interest rate cuts accrue more to owners of capital than workers - but that doesn’t change the fact that affluent households are holding the economy up. If they fail, the pain in the labor market will be worse.
The waffling of the stock market & the outsized role affluent households play in driving consumer spending likely cast doubt into the minds of
of those who want to cut but felt sidelined by the data; it could undermine demand and add insult to injury to the labor market.
of those who want to cut but felt sidelined by the data; it could undermine demand and add insult to injury to the labor market.
November 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The waffling of the stock market & the outsized role affluent households play in driving consumer spending likely cast doubt into the minds of
of those who want to cut but felt sidelined by the data; it could undermine demand and add insult to injury to the labor market.
of those who want to cut but felt sidelined by the data; it could undermine demand and add insult to injury to the labor market.
The political pressure to cut is high, not just from the administration but because stagflation - a toxic mix of rising prices and unemployment - is extremely painful. People want relief.
November 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The political pressure to cut is high, not just from the administration but because stagflation - a toxic mix of rising prices and unemployment - is extremely painful. People want relief.
The Fed’s next scheduled meeting is December 9-10th. Key data on employment and inflation are not released for November until December 16th and 18th. Data for October was lost or limited by the shutdown.
November 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The Fed’s next scheduled meeting is December 9-10th. Key data on employment and inflation are not released for November until December 16th and 18th. Data for October was lost or limited by the shutdown.
Inflation burns, unemployment scars. The two together represent the worst of all worlds for most Americans. That is the hardest reality of what we are enduring.
No risk free options on policy decisions for the Fed.
No risk free options on policy decisions for the Fed.
November 21, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Inflation burns, unemployment scars. The two together represent the worst of all worlds for most Americans. That is the hardest reality of what we are enduring.
No risk free options on policy decisions for the Fed.
No risk free options on policy decisions for the Fed.
Financial stability is third leg of stool for Fed that gets overlooked but was highlighted by Governor Cook yesterday.
Don’t forget. If Fed decides to pause due to lack of data, they could leave options open for an inter-meeting move if needed. This is not ideal but neither is the economy.
Don’t forget. If Fed decides to pause due to lack of data, they could leave options open for an inter-meeting move if needed. This is not ideal but neither is the economy.
November 21, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Financial stability is third leg of stool for Fed that gets overlooked but was highlighted by Governor Cook yesterday.
Don’t forget. If Fed decides to pause due to lack of data, they could leave options open for an inter-meeting move if needed. This is not ideal but neither is the economy.
Don’t forget. If Fed decides to pause due to lack of data, they could leave options open for an inter-meeting move if needed. This is not ideal but neither is the economy.