David Henig
@davidheniguk.bsky.social
Trade wonk, Brexit bore, globalisation defender, music lover, cricketer, gardener, supporter of mediocre football teams, who knows where the time goes?
Pinned
The New World of Trade – How 40 Years of Change Brought Globalisation Without Trust
Making sense of daily trade policy turbulence has become a major challenge. President Trump is just one part of a complex ever-changing picture.Stop the world to catch up is an understandable respons
ecipe.org
"How 40 years of change brought globalisation without trust" - my latest long read (based on a talk given this morning) seems immediately relevant given further US-China tensions over global supply chains.
Global markets are a reality --->
ecipe.org/blog/the-new...
Global markets are a reality --->
ecipe.org/blog/the-new...
I did not have insider knowledge. I have just been around Brussels negotiations for a long time...
EU agrees a mandate for UK negotiations as I predicted. With the bonus that the future path becomes clearer - if you pay you can have more. www.politico.eu/article/uk-s...
EU agrees a mandate for UK negotiations as I predicted. With the bonus that the future path becomes clearer - if you pay you can have more. www.politico.eu/article/uk-s...
November 12, 2025 at 6:45 PM
I did not have insider knowledge. I have just been around Brussels negotiations for a long time...
EU agrees a mandate for UK negotiations as I predicted. With the bonus that the future path becomes clearer - if you pay you can have more. www.politico.eu/article/uk-s...
EU agrees a mandate for UK negotiations as I predicted. With the bonus that the future path becomes clearer - if you pay you can have more. www.politico.eu/article/uk-s...
Pleased to see a rather younger me making a very brief spectating appearance in the Kenny Dalglish film, don't think it will earn any royalties...
November 12, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Pleased to see a rather younger me making a very brief spectating appearance in the Kenny Dalglish film, don't think it will earn any royalties...
Yesterday US tariffs were having no effect on prices. Today they are and will therefore be reduced on some commodities. Almost like the economy is being run on a completely haphazard basis according to one man's limited comprehension. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Plans Move to Ease Prices on Coffee and Bananas, Bessent Says
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the Trump administration would soon unveil reductions in import duties on coffee, bananas and other foods — taking action after voter anger over the cos...
www.bloomberg.com
November 12, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Yesterday US tariffs were having no effect on prices. Today they are and will therefore be reduced on some commodities. Almost like the economy is being run on a completely haphazard basis according to one man's limited comprehension. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Not sure too many trade folk believe growing interdependence makes war less likely but equally self sufficiency is not necessarily more resilient either. Basically a question of good risk management.
Just sent out this piece. Over the last 30 years we have witnessed a repeat of one the great illusions of the pre-1914 world, that growing trade and interdependence makes war less likely, even "futile". It was a comforting fiction then and a very dangerous one now. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Greatest Illusion
Trade Specialization Does Not Make War Less Likely And Cannot Be Undone Quickly
open.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Not sure too many trade folk believe growing interdependence makes war less likely but equally self sufficiency is not necessarily more resilient either. Basically a question of good risk management.
The true but dull school of "it wasn't as good as hoped or as bad as feared but just kind of middling" which also tends to apply to modern trade deals deals and many other policy interventions.
Ahead of the Budget there is quite a bit of misinformation
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
November 12, 2025 at 1:02 PM
The true but dull school of "it wasn't as good as hoped or as bad as feared but just kind of middling" which also tends to apply to modern trade deals deals and many other policy interventions.
New York Times newsletter. You will find few better indicators of a changing world - one in which governments in Europe and the US are largely lost and defensive in response to the change going on elsewhere.
November 12, 2025 at 12:11 PM
New York Times newsletter. You will find few better indicators of a changing world - one in which governments in Europe and the US are largely lost and defensive in response to the change going on elsewhere.
Scotland government paper on UK-EU negotiations. Pretty good and rather more supportive of the UK government than some Member States are of the Commission. While noting the areas where more could be done. www.gov.scot/publications...
Scottish Government priorities for UK-EU negotiations: position paper
Scottish Government assessment of the UK-EU Summit outcomes, and priorities for forthcoming negotiations.
www.gov.scot
November 12, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Scotland government paper on UK-EU negotiations. Pretty good and rather more supportive of the UK government than some Member States are of the Commission. While noting the areas where more could be done. www.gov.scot/publications...
Incidentally there is growing talk in Brussels of von der Leyen under threat, Merz is struggling in Germany, and we measure French Prime Ministerial survival in weeks...
So if we all care to be less insular there is rather a wider trend in European politics.
So if we all care to be less insular there is rather a wider trend in European politics.
November 12, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Incidentally there is growing talk in Brussels of von der Leyen under threat, Merz is struggling in Germany, and we measure French Prime Ministerial survival in weeks...
So if we all care to be less insular there is rather a wider trend in European politics.
So if we all care to be less insular there is rather a wider trend in European politics.
Sort of message given by every dictator who ran their economies into the ground.
November 12, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Sort of message given by every dictator who ran their economies into the ground.
Important big FT read on the future of German manufacturing. Major problem is that China is out-competing (regardless of the contentious issue of how much is subsidised) in many areas. Protecting your own market probably means permanent loss of global markets. www.ft.com/content/239e...
Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Europe’s manufacturing champion is in free fall. Economists are suggesting radical steps to save what is left
www.ft.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Important big FT read on the future of German manufacturing. Major problem is that China is out-competing (regardless of the contentious issue of how much is subsidised) in many areas. Protecting your own market probably means permanent loss of global markets. www.ft.com/content/239e...
To summarise - rather more questions than answers on the UK-EU reset, with rather little forthcoming from the UK government, and much more needed.
It’s out! Here’s @LordsEUCom Report ‘Unfinished Business: resetting the UK- EU relationship’. The Gov’t have made a strong start, esp on security and defence, but there’s still much to do in turning aspirations and goodwill into workable agreements 1/8
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
publications.parliament.uk
November 12, 2025 at 9:12 AM
To summarise - rather more questions than answers on the UK-EU reset, with rather little forthcoming from the UK government, and much more needed.
Quite possibly the best day for UK Eurosceptics since 2020.
Conservatives might just be too compromised to make much of it, but Brussels struggles might provide a perfect opening for Farage to get back on top of the issue of EU ties.
Conservatives might just be too compromised to make much of it, but Brussels struggles might provide a perfect opening for Farage to get back on top of the issue of EU ties.
November 12, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Quite possibly the best day for UK Eurosceptics since 2020.
Conservatives might just be too compromised to make much of it, but Brussels struggles might provide a perfect opening for Farage to get back on top of the issue of EU ties.
Conservatives might just be too compromised to make much of it, but Brussels struggles might provide a perfect opening for Farage to get back on top of the issue of EU ties.
NB the assumed deadline for UK involvement in SAFE is 30 November. 18 days to show whether the EU is more concerned with defence or industrial protection (a financial deal can be found).
On continued EU discussions about the UK - the crux remains as per this quote - “We made an agreement in May — that should be the foundation for our conversation” - whether the EU is going to breach the common understanding 6 months on. www.politico.eu/article/uk-p...
Brussels deadlocked over how to handle Brexit Britain
Talks will continue into Wednesday as member states remain divided over the question of U.K. payments into EU budget funds.
www.politico.eu
November 12, 2025 at 8:48 AM
NB the assumed deadline for UK involvement in SAFE is 30 November. 18 days to show whether the EU is more concerned with defence or industrial protection (a financial deal can be found).
On continued EU discussions about the UK - the crux remains as per this quote - “We made an agreement in May — that should be the foundation for our conversation” - whether the EU is going to breach the common understanding 6 months on. www.politico.eu/article/uk-p...
Brussels deadlocked over how to handle Brexit Britain
Talks will continue into Wednesday as member states remain divided over the question of U.K. payments into EU budget funds.
www.politico.eu
November 12, 2025 at 8:29 AM
On continued EU discussions about the UK - the crux remains as per this quote - “We made an agreement in May — that should be the foundation for our conversation” - whether the EU is going to breach the common understanding 6 months on. www.politico.eu/article/uk-p...
As I think Labour is discovering but few in the Conservatives wanted to is this inter-connected world has few opportunities for growth in mature economies, and lots of expectations from people that governments can and will do everything to remove risk. Doesn't add up.
November 12, 2025 at 7:31 AM
As I think Labour is discovering but few in the Conservatives wanted to is this inter-connected world has few opportunities for growth in mature economies, and lots of expectations from people that governments can and will do everything to remove risk. Doesn't add up.
Reposted by David Henig
Looking at this graph and wonder if something else might be going on beyond 'poor quality leader'
November 11, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Looking at this graph and wonder if something else might be going on beyond 'poor quality leader'
Bears no resemblance to discussions in Brussels, just an anti-UK the EU is always right rant. Picking up some suggestions that the French have overplayed their hand (again) leading to pushback, hopefully then tals will formally start soon (informally they already did).
I have no recent insight particularly, but that description of UKG chicanery and trying to leverage what had been agreed chimes loudly with earlier in the year.
Keep an eye. Not saying 🇪🇺 will walk, but expect suspension unless the UK gets its house in order
A 🧵
Keep an eye. Not saying 🇪🇺 will walk, but expect suspension unless the UK gets its house in order
A 🧵
I have to say, this is earlier than I had expected. But if the UK wants to benefit from being inside the SM, it has to contribute.
As for wanting to pay half as much as others for Erasmus, where do they get off?
The Uk chose Brexit. Stop asking others to pay their way.
#ExtrawurstGroßbritannien
As for wanting to pay half as much as others for Erasmus, where do they get off?
The Uk chose Brexit. Stop asking others to pay their way.
#ExtrawurstGroßbritannien
November 11, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Bears no resemblance to discussions in Brussels, just an anti-UK the EU is always right rant. Picking up some suggestions that the French have overplayed their hand (again) leading to pushback, hopefully then tals will formally start soon (informally they already did).
What the run-up to the budget should be proving conclusively is that there are an awful lot of vested interests demanding that their perks remain exactly as they are being crucial to growth etc.
November 11, 2025 at 8:27 AM
What the run-up to the budget should be proving conclusively is that there are an awful lot of vested interests demanding that their perks remain exactly as they are being crucial to growth etc.
Reposted by David Henig
UK-China agree joint research on climate change and environment; planetary sciences and astronomy; health and agriculture and food research, excluding subsectors due to each countries’ national security and legislative requirements. Scary, but good if Trump pissed off www.gov.uk/government/p...
Joint statement from the 11th UK and China Joint Commission Meeting
www.gov.uk
November 11, 2025 at 8:19 AM
UK-China agree joint research on climate change and environment; planetary sciences and astronomy; health and agriculture and food research, excluding subsectors due to each countries’ national security and legislative requirements. Scary, but good if Trump pissed off www.gov.uk/government/p...
We wait to see what "joint statements on working methods and on a financial contribution" may be.
But once again, from the point of view of a struggling EU, does it want partners or victims?
But once again, from the point of view of a struggling EU, does it want partners or victims?
EU(27) moving towards adoption of mandates for negotiations on SPS and ETS agreements with the UK.
data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document...
data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document...
November 11, 2025 at 7:56 AM
We wait to see what "joint statements on working methods and on a financial contribution" may be.
But once again, from the point of view of a struggling EU, does it want partners or victims?
But once again, from the point of view of a struggling EU, does it want partners or victims?
Perish the thought that the US or EU would ever try to weaponise trade... and just to point out again that the Chinese have historic reasons for not fully trusting the beneficence of traders from elsewhere...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Nexperia row shows how China is weaponising trade – and winning
Experts say Brussels must stand up against Beijing using supplies of vital chips and minerals as ‘sword of Damocles’
www.theguardian.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Perish the thought that the US or EU would ever try to weaponise trade... and just to point out again that the Chinese have historic reasons for not fully trusting the beneficence of traders from elsewhere...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Reposted by David Henig
I also wish people would spell out the alternative proposal here.
"We should have kept tariffs and capital restrictions on China skyhigh in the hopes it never became a competitive industrial producer, trapping hundreds of millions in subsistance poverty and raising the cost of everything."
"We should have kept tariffs and capital restrictions on China skyhigh in the hopes it never became a competitive industrial producer, trapping hundreds of millions in subsistance poverty and raising the cost of everything."
This is also said about Europe's approach to China and I simply don't believe this is true. I was at conferences with senior US folk in the early 2010s and none thought China would become more democratic or liberal.
We thought we could compete.
We thought we could compete.
November 10, 2025 at 9:53 PM
I also wish people would spell out the alternative proposal here.
"We should have kept tariffs and capital restrictions on China skyhigh in the hopes it never became a competitive industrial producer, trapping hundreds of millions in subsistance poverty and raising the cost of everything."
"We should have kept tariffs and capital restrictions on China skyhigh in the hopes it never became a competitive industrial producer, trapping hundreds of millions in subsistance poverty and raising the cost of everything."
I don't think he's taking the prospect of Supreme Court defeat too well...
Trump claims the U.S. would need to repay $2 trillion if the Supreme Court overturned his tariffs. He says that covers "tariff revenue and investments," which presumably includes the deals from Japan, Korea, etc. Credible estimates of tariff revenue are less than 10% of that.
November 10, 2025 at 8:29 PM
I don't think he's taking the prospect of Supreme Court defeat too well...
This is also said about Europe's approach to China and I simply don't believe this is true. I was at conferences with senior US folk in the early 2010s and none thought China would become more democratic or liberal.
We thought we could compete.
We thought we could compete.
November 10, 2025 at 7:18 PM
This is also said about Europe's approach to China and I simply don't believe this is true. I was at conferences with senior US folk in the early 2010s and none thought China would become more democratic or liberal.
We thought we could compete.
We thought we could compete.
One can only imagine the screams of betrayal in Brussels if the UK was backtracking on the common understanding agreed in May. But it is an EU struggling to find any commonality in trade policy largely due to extreme French positions (on every subject). www.ft.com/content/03ef...
Von der Leyen dodged Starmer request for meeting on EU money demands
European Commission president had ‘scheduling’ issues at COP30 summit in Brazil and did not see the UK premier
www.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:17 PM
One can only imagine the screams of betrayal in Brussels if the UK was backtracking on the common understanding agreed in May. But it is an EU struggling to find any commonality in trade policy largely due to extreme French positions (on every subject). www.ft.com/content/03ef...