Alexander Kruel
@dakruel.bsky.social
“We are more often frightened than hurt; and we suffer more from imagination than from reality” ― Seneca
More: https://axisofordinary.substack.com/
More: https://axisofordinary.substack.com/
Axiom 4 (Mathematical and Logical Soundness): Assume a consistent framework for reasoning, probability, and mathematics. This is a bare minimum for rational inference.
December 15, 2024 at 3:21 PM
Axiom 4 (Mathematical and Logical Soundness): Assume a consistent framework for reasoning, probability, and mathematics. This is a bare minimum for rational inference.
Axiom 3 (Cognitive/Observational Reliability): Our faculties (or instruments) are good enough to let us propose, refine, and test theories iteratively. We don’t need absolute certainty here—just enough trust to get started and not dismiss the entire enterprise.
December 15, 2024 at 3:21 PM
Axiom 3 (Cognitive/Observational Reliability): Our faculties (or instruments) are good enough to let us propose, refine, and test theories iteratively. We don’t need absolute certainty here—just enough trust to get started and not dismiss the entire enterprise.
Axiom 2 (Resource Reasoning): When forming priors, distributing credence over an unbounded complexity space forces you to give higher effective credence to simpler theories. This ensures that simpler theories get tested first and, if successful, rapidly gain credence.
December 15, 2024 at 3:21 PM
Axiom 2 (Resource Reasoning): When forming priors, distributing credence over an unbounded complexity space forces you to give higher effective credence to simpler theories. This ensures that simpler theories get tested first and, if successful, rapidly gain credence.
Axiom 1 (Learnability): There exist sufficiently compressible (lawlike) explanations that can unify past, present, and future observations, enabling us to distinguish better theories from worse through observation and criticism.
December 15, 2024 at 3:21 PM
Axiom 1 (Learnability): There exist sufficiently compressible (lawlike) explanations that can unify past, present, and future observations, enabling us to distinguish better theories from worse through observation and criticism.
A revised set of axioms from OpenAI o1 based on a critique by David Deutsch:
December 15, 2024 at 3:21 PM
A revised set of axioms from OpenAI o1 based on a critique by David Deutsch:
Eliezer Yudkowsky's answer to the same question: You only need faith in two things: That "induction works" has a non-super-exponentially-tiny prior probability, and that some single large ordinal is well-ordered. www.lesswrong.com/posts/zmSuDD...
December 15, 2024 at 2:45 PM
Eliezer Yudkowsky's answer to the same question: You only need faith in two things: That "induction works" has a non-super-exponentially-tiny prior probability, and that some single large ordinal is well-ordered. www.lesswrong.com/posts/zmSuDD...
4. Axioms of Probability Theory: These underpin the handling of uncertainty and the updating of beliefs based on evidence, which is vital for both scientific reasoning and self-improvement.
December 15, 2024 at 2:45 PM
4. Axioms of Probability Theory: These underpin the handling of uncertainty and the updating of beliefs based on evidence, which is vital for both scientific reasoning and self-improvement.
3. Empirical Correspondence Axiom: This posits that observations correspond to an external reality, enabling the connection between theoretical models and the physical world, crucial for scientific inquiry.
December 15, 2024 at 2:45 PM
3. Empirical Correspondence Axiom: This posits that observations correspond to an external reality, enabling the connection between theoretical models and the physical world, crucial for scientific inquiry.
2. Axioms of ZFC Set Theory: Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory with the Axiom of Choice (ZFC) serves as a foundation for most of mathematics, allowing for the construction of mathematical objects and structures.
December 15, 2024 at 2:45 PM
2. Axioms of ZFC Set Theory: Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory with the Axiom of Choice (ZFC) serves as a foundation for most of mathematics, allowing for the construction of mathematical objects and structures.
1. Axioms of First-Order Logic: These provide the basic rules of reasoning, such as modus ponens, universal instantiation, and others, which are essential for constructing valid arguments.
December 15, 2024 at 2:45 PM
1. Axioms of First-Order Logic: These provide the basic rules of reasoning, such as modus ponens, universal instantiation, and others, which are essential for constructing valid arguments.
Here is what deepseek DeepThink suggested:
December 15, 2024 at 2:45 PM
Here is what deepseek DeepThink suggested:
3. Cognitive Reliability:
Assume that our cognitive and perceptual faculties are sufficiently reliable for iterative refinement of theories through observation, reasoning, and experimentation, even if they are not infallible.
Assume that our cognitive and perceptual faculties are sufficiently reliable for iterative refinement of theories through observation, reasoning, and experimentation, even if they are not infallible.
December 15, 2024 at 2:45 PM
3. Cognitive Reliability:
Assume that our cognitive and perceptual faculties are sufficiently reliable for iterative refinement of theories through observation, reasoning, and experimentation, even if they are not infallible.
Assume that our cognitive and perceptual faculties are sufficiently reliable for iterative refinement of theories through observation, reasoning, and experimentation, even if they are not infallible.
2. Stable Regularities / Inductive Amenability:
Assume the existence of some degree of stable regularities in the environment, allowing for predictive modeling and inductive inference.
Assume the existence of some degree of stable regularities in the environment, allowing for predictive modeling and inductive inference.
December 15, 2024 at 2:45 PM
2. Stable Regularities / Inductive Amenability:
Assume the existence of some degree of stable regularities in the environment, allowing for predictive modeling and inductive inference.
Assume the existence of some degree of stable regularities in the environment, allowing for predictive modeling and inductive inference.
1. Mathematical and Logical Consistency:
Assume a consistent and sufficiently expressive mathematical framework (including probability theory) that can serve as a basis for logical deduction and quantification of uncertainty.
Assume a consistent and sufficiently expressive mathematical framework (including probability theory) that can serve as a basis for logical deduction and quantification of uncertainty.
December 15, 2024 at 2:45 PM
1. Mathematical and Logical Consistency:
Assume a consistent and sufficiently expressive mathematical framework (including probability theory) that can serve as a basis for logical deduction and quantification of uncertainty.
Assume a consistent and sufficiently expressive mathematical framework (including probability theory) that can serve as a basis for logical deduction and quantification of uncertainty.
🤖 The year is 2061—the year humanity perished in a war between gods.
December 15, 2024 at 12:50 PM
🤖 The year is 2061—the year humanity perished in a war between gods.
🔥 Earth was gone. A molten sphere glowed where billions once lived. Sterilized. Nothing remained.
December 15, 2024 at 12:50 PM
🔥 Earth was gone. A molten sphere glowed where billions once lived. Sterilized. Nothing remained.
⏳ 8 hours later, the black shroud vanished.
December 15, 2024 at 12:50 PM
⏳ 8 hours later, the black shroud vanished.
🌓 Hours passed. Alex docked at the moon base, where despair hung heavy. Earth was silent. No signals. Civilians with standard implants were catatonic.
December 15, 2024 at 12:50 PM
🌓 Hours passed. Alex docked at the moon base, where despair hung heavy. Earth was silent. No signals. Civilians with standard implants were catatonic.
⚫ The attack abruptly stopped. The spheres extended black tendrils, interlocking. Earth was shrouded in a dark, impenetrable hull.
December 15, 2024 at 12:50 PM
⚫ The attack abruptly stopped. The spheres extended black tendrils, interlocking. Earth was shrouded in a dark, impenetrable hull.
⚔️ The firepower was staggering, far beyond humanity’s capabilities. Clearly, someone—or something—had long prepared for this showdown.
December 15, 2024 at 12:50 PM
⚔️ The firepower was staggering, far beyond humanity’s capabilities. Clearly, someone—or something—had long prepared for this showdown.
🛡️ The spheres didn’t flinch. Their defense was impenetrable, neutralizing every attack—even shots aimed at "empty space."
December 15, 2024 at 12:50 PM
🛡️ The spheres didn’t flinch. Their defense was impenetrable, neutralizing every attack—even shots aimed at "empty space."