Colby Smith
@colbylsmith.bsky.social
@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. [email protected]
Pinned
Colby Smith
@colbylsmith.bsky.social
· Jan 21
Thrilled to announce I’ve joined @nytimes to lead their coverage of the Federal Reserve and write about the US economy. Big thank you to @FT for a wonderful nearly 7 years. You can now reach me at [email protected]
As Consumer Bureau’s Cash Dwindles, Trump Administration Declares Its Funding Illegal www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:53 PM
As Consumer Bureau’s Cash Dwindles, Trump Administration Declares Its Funding Illegal www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic will step down from his position in February, creating yet another vacancy at the top ranks of the central bank.
Regional presidents are selected by their local boards, but the Fed's board in DC has veto power
Regional presidents are selected by their local boards, but the Fed's board in DC has veto power
November 12, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic will step down from his position in February, creating yet another vacancy at the top ranks of the central bank.
Regional presidents are selected by their local boards, but the Fed's board in DC has veto power
Regional presidents are selected by their local boards, but the Fed's board in DC has veto power
The Fed's recent rate decisions have been divisive. It's likely to get worse.
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
November 7, 2025 at 2:38 PM
The Fed's recent rate decisions have been divisive. It's likely to get worse.
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
New: The Trump admin is wielding the possibility that parts of the economy are in a recession in an attempt to raise pressure on the Fed to cut rates. The hope is that the central bank will bear the blame for any downturn
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com
Trump Aides Raise Recession Fears, and Point Fingers at the Fed
www.nytimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 8:27 PM
New: The Trump admin is wielding the possibility that parts of the economy are in a recession in an attempt to raise pressure on the Fed to cut rates. The hope is that the central bank will bear the blame for any downturn
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com
Lisa Cook briefly addresses her ongoing legal battle with the president, who is trying to oust her from the Fed. In her first comments since Trump announced her firing, Cook said she was "grateful" for the support and that she would continue to carry out her sworn duties
November 3, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Lisa Cook briefly addresses her ongoing legal battle with the president, who is trying to oust her from the Fed. In her first comments since Trump announced her firing, Cook said she was "grateful" for the support and that she would continue to carry out her sworn duties
Reposted by Colby Smith
Highly recommend @colbylsmith.bsky.social's interview with Steven Miran. She really pushes him to explain his thinking on interest rates, immigration, and other topics. (Whether you find his explanations credible is up to you.) #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
Fed Governor Defends Call for Big Rate Cuts
www.nytimes.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Highly recommend @colbylsmith.bsky.social's interview with Steven Miran. She really pushes him to explain his thinking on interest rates, immigration, and other topics. (Whether you find his explanations credible is up to you.) #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
Speaking w/ @nytimes.com, Miran defends his dissent for a 50bp cut at this week's Fed meeting, warning that the central bank risks inducing a recession if it does not swiftly lower rates. He expects the Fed to cut again in December and will likely dissent again
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/b...
Fed Risks a Recession if It Doesn’t Cut Rates Rapidly, a Top Official Warns
www.nytimes.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Speaking w/ @nytimes.com, Miran defends his dissent for a 50bp cut at this week's Fed meeting, warning that the central bank risks inducing a recession if it does not swiftly lower rates. He expects the Fed to cut again in December and will likely dissent again
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/b...
The shutdown may not leave lasting economic damage, but it's making the Fed's job harder
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
A Month Without Data Muddles the Economic Picture
www.nytimes.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:58 PM
The shutdown may not leave lasting economic damage, but it's making the Fed's job harder
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Fed cuts rates by 25bps. Two officials dissent: Miran in favor of a 50bp cut and Schmid in favor of standing pat.
The Fed will end QT on December 1
The Fed will end QT on December 1
October 29, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Fed cuts rates by 25bps. Two officials dissent: Miran in favor of a 50bp cut and Schmid in favor of standing pat.
The Fed will end QT on December 1
The Fed will end QT on December 1
The labor market is in focus as the Fed prepares to cut rates for a second-meeting in a row today despite inflation picking back up. But the shutdown has made it hard to know how significantly it is weakening www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
October 29, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The labor market is in focus as the Fed prepares to cut rates for a second-meeting in a row today despite inflation picking back up. But the shutdown has made it hard to know how significantly it is weakening www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
The Fed's strategy to cut rates in support of the labor market even as inflation rose was always considered risky. The shutdown has made it all the more treacherous, obscuring officials’ view of the economy as divisions have sharpened
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
October 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
The Fed's strategy to cut rates in support of the labor market even as inflation rose was always considered risky. The shutdown has made it all the more treacherous, obscuring officials’ view of the economy as divisions have sharpened
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
When the Fed meets this week, its officials will be discussing more than just the outlook for rates. Strains in funding markets have raised the urgency around their debate about QT
"Alerts are going off on a very regular basis right now"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/b... @nytimes.com
"Alerts are going off on a very regular basis right now"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/b... @nytimes.com
Strains in Short-Term Markets Raise Urgency of Fed’s Balance Sheet Debate
www.nytimes.com
October 27, 2025 at 3:59 PM
When the Fed meets this week, its officials will be discussing more than just the outlook for rates. Strains in funding markets have raised the urgency around their debate about QT
"Alerts are going off on a very regular basis right now"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/b... @nytimes.com
"Alerts are going off on a very regular basis right now"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/b... @nytimes.com
The Fed is making its stress tests more transparent following a lawsuit from the country's biggest banks. The proposal has broad support, but Barr (fmr VC for supervision) says it will make the financial system less safe
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Fed Prepares Bank-Friendly Changes to Annual Stress Tests
www.nytimes.com
October 24, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The Fed is making its stress tests more transparent following a lawsuit from the country's biggest banks. The proposal has broad support, but Barr (fmr VC for supervision) says it will make the financial system less safe
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
The BLS may not be able to release the next CPI report, which is due in November, because of the shutdown, according to a White House official. That would leave the Fed without a good read on how inflation is evolving ahead of its final meeting of the year in December @tonyromm.bsky.social
October 24, 2025 at 1:23 PM
The BLS may not be able to release the next CPI report, which is due in November, because of the shutdown, according to a White House official. That would leave the Fed without a good read on how inflation is evolving ahead of its final meeting of the year in December @tonyromm.bsky.social
The relatively benign CPI report keeps the Fed on track to lower interest rates next week
"Core" prices rose less than expected, with the annual rate edging lower to 3%
"Core" prices rose less than expected, with the annual rate edging lower to 3%
October 24, 2025 at 12:43 PM
The relatively benign CPI report keeps the Fed on track to lower interest rates next week
"Core" prices rose less than expected, with the annual rate edging lower to 3%
"Core" prices rose less than expected, with the annual rate edging lower to 3%
New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
October 20, 2025 at 2:50 PM
New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
Reposted by Colby Smith
Wealthy Americans Are Spending. People With Less Are Struggling.
Via @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social and NYT Business:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
Via @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social and NYT Business:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
October 19, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Wealthy Americans Are Spending. People With Less Are Struggling.
Via @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social and NYT Business:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
Via @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social and NYT Business:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
Reposted by Colby Smith
"'You generally don’t want your first use of the E.S.F. to be a failure,' [Brad] Setser said, referring to the Exchange Stabilization Fund. 'I do think it would impact the broader credibility of Secretary Bessent’s financial management.'"
Treasury Secretary Stakes Credibility and Taxpayer Money on Argentina Bet
www.nytimes.com
October 17, 2025 at 5:00 PM
"'You generally don’t want your first use of the E.S.F. to be a failure,' [Brad] Setser said, referring to the Exchange Stabilization Fund. 'I do think it would impact the broader credibility of Secretary Bessent’s financial management.'"
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s multibillion-dollar bailout of Argentina, a serial defaulter, raises the specter of losses for U.S. taxpayers
"There is always a new crop of investors and traders who think they know better"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/u...
W/ Alan Rappeport @nytimes.com
"There is always a new crop of investors and traders who think they know better"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/u...
W/ Alan Rappeport @nytimes.com
Treasury Secretary Stakes Credibility and Taxpayer Money on Argentina Bet
www.nytimes.com
October 17, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s multibillion-dollar bailout of Argentina, a serial defaulter, raises the specter of losses for U.S. taxpayers
"There is always a new crop of investors and traders who think they know better"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/u...
W/ Alan Rappeport @nytimes.com
"There is always a new crop of investors and traders who think they know better"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/u...
W/ Alan Rappeport @nytimes.com
Powell says the Fed faces no risk-free path, but he seems willing to take a gamble on inflation. As such, the Fed is poised to keep cutting. But some economists warn there is a real risk inflation gets stuck above 2% if officials do not tread carefully www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/b... @nytimes.com
Is the Fed Too Confident About Inflation? Some Economists Think So.
www.nytimes.com
October 15, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Powell says the Fed faces no risk-free path, but he seems willing to take a gamble on inflation. As such, the Fed is poised to keep cutting. But some economists warn there is a real risk inflation gets stuck above 2% if officials do not tread carefully www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/b... @nytimes.com
"We'll start to miss that data," says Powell about the lapse in government statistics because of the shutdown. It will become "more challenging" the longer the shutdown lasts, especially if it means new data is not being collected
October 14, 2025 at 4:54 PM
"We'll start to miss that data," says Powell about the lapse in government statistics because of the shutdown. It will become "more challenging" the longer the shutdown lasts, especially if it means new data is not being collected
Powell's speech centers mostly on the balance sheet, which has become a key point of criticism from Bessent. But he also makes several points on the outlook, signaling the Fed is on track to keep cutting given downside risks to the labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/b... @nytimes.com
October 14, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Powell's speech centers mostly on the balance sheet, which has become a key point of criticism from Bessent. But he also makes several points on the outlook, signaling the Fed is on track to keep cutting given downside risks to the labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/b... @nytimes.com
In an interview with @nytimes.com, John Williams of @newyorkfed.bsky.social backs further cuts given his concerns about the labor market. We also discussed inflation, the shutdown, why Fed independence is important and more
thread below/gift link to the transcript: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...
thread below/gift link to the transcript: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...
New York Fed President Backs Interest Rate Cuts to Protect Labor Market
www.nytimes.com
October 9, 2025 at 12:31 PM
In an interview with @nytimes.com, John Williams of @newyorkfed.bsky.social backs further cuts given his concerns about the labor market. We also discussed inflation, the shutdown, why Fed independence is important and more
thread below/gift link to the transcript: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...
thread below/gift link to the transcript: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...
Minutes from the Fed's September meeting underscore the divisions between policymakers about the path forward for policy. A few officials appeared reluctant to cut last month and a majority see upside risk to inflation. Still, most see scope to cut further this year
October 8, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Minutes from the Fed's September meeting underscore the divisions between policymakers about the path forward for policy. A few officials appeared reluctant to cut last month and a majority see upside risk to inflation. Still, most see scope to cut further this year
Miran on Tuesday explained his shift from opposing rate cuts last year to supporting them this year, saying his view of neutral "has basically just gone from one end of the range to the other." He cites immigration restrictions and expectations of changes to the deficit
October 7, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Miran on Tuesday explained his shift from opposing rate cuts last year to supporting them this year, saying his view of neutral "has basically just gone from one end of the range to the other." He cites immigration restrictions and expectations of changes to the deficit