Casey Breen
@caseybreen.bsky.social
Demographer. Assistant Professor @ UT-Austin.
caseybreen.com
caseybreen.com
This new method can be used to monitor trends in crude death rates over time.
November 19, 2025 at 5:16 AM
This new method can be used to monitor trends in crude death rates over time.
However, the household estimate from the *probability* sample was much higher than other estimates, which may reflect strategic over-reporting (high levels of NGO operations in the area have been hypothesized to create incentives to overreport deaths).
November 19, 2025 at 5:16 AM
However, the household estimate from the *probability* sample was much higher than other estimates, which may reflect strategic over-reporting (high levels of NGO operations in the area have been hypothesized to create incentives to overreport deaths).
From the quota sample, our estimates based on different types of respondent reports (i.e., reports on neighbors, kin, and household) produce similar and plausible crude death rate estimates.
As we reweighted to account for selection into the quota sample, the estimated death rates increased.
As we reweighted to account for selection into the quota sample, the estimated death rates increased.
November 19, 2025 at 5:16 AM
From the quota sample, our estimates based on different types of respondent reports (i.e., reports on neighbors, kin, and household) produce similar and plausible crude death rate estimates.
As we reweighted to account for selection into the quota sample, the estimated death rates increased.
As we reweighted to account for selection into the quota sample, the estimated death rates increased.
To account for selection into our quota sample, we constructed survey weights under several scenarios reflecting different hypothetical levels of auxiliary data availability for weighting targets.
November 19, 2025 at 5:16 AM
To account for selection into our quota sample, we constructed survey weights under several scenarios reflecting different hypothetical levels of auxiliary data availability for weighting targets.
An advantage of the network approach is that each interview provides mortality information on many more people than a typical mortality survey that asks respondents only about their household or siblings.
November 19, 2025 at 5:16 AM
An advantage of the network approach is that each interview provides mortality information on many more people than a typical mortality survey that asks respondents only about their household or siblings.
Qualitative fieldwork suggested testing two different types of personal networks as the basis for estimates: deaths among immediate neighbors and deaths among kin.
November 19, 2025 at 5:16 AM
Qualitative fieldwork suggested testing two different types of personal networks as the basis for estimates: deaths among immediate neighbors and deaths among kin.
We collected original data in Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, a realistic setting where such emergencies have happened in the past.
Study design involved two data collection efforts: a quota sample possible in a humanitarian emergency and probability comparator sample.
Study design involved two data collection efforts: a quota sample possible in a humanitarian emergency and probability comparator sample.
November 19, 2025 at 5:16 AM
We collected original data in Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, a realistic setting where such emergencies have happened in the past.
Study design involved two data collection efforts: a quota sample possible in a humanitarian emergency and probability comparator sample.
Study design involved two data collection efforts: a quota sample possible in a humanitarian emergency and probability comparator sample.
We adapt the network survival method to the unique setting of humanitarian emergencies.
The idea behind the network survival method is that respondents can report on 1) the size of their social network and 2) deaths in their social networks. This info can be aggregated to estimate death rates.
The idea behind the network survival method is that respondents can report on 1) the size of their social network and 2) deaths in their social networks. This info can be aggregated to estimate death rates.
November 19, 2025 at 5:16 AM
We adapt the network survival method to the unique setting of humanitarian emergencies.
The idea behind the network survival method is that respondents can report on 1) the size of their social network and 2) deaths in their social networks. This info can be aggregated to estimate death rates.
The idea behind the network survival method is that respondents can report on 1) the size of their social network and 2) deaths in their social networks. This info can be aggregated to estimate death rates.
Our estimates show large gaps in adoption levels and gender inequality within and between countries.
In most countries, adoption is increasing over time and gender inequality is decreasing — with notable exceptions, such as Afghanistan in 2021 following the Taliban Resurgence.
In most countries, adoption is increasing over time and gender inequality is decreasing — with notable exceptions, such as Afghanistan in 2021 following the Taliban Resurgence.
October 15, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Our estimates show large gaps in adoption levels and gender inequality within and between countries.
In most countries, adoption is increasing over time and gender inequality is decreasing — with notable exceptions, such as Afghanistan in 2021 following the Taliban Resurgence.
In most countries, adoption is increasing over time and gender inequality is decreasing — with notable exceptions, such as Afghanistan in 2021 following the Taliban Resurgence.
We construct these subnational estimates by training machine learning algorithms on Facebook user count data,
satellite and geospatial data, and household survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).
satellite and geospatial data, and household survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).
October 15, 2025 at 3:05 AM
We construct these subnational estimates by training machine learning algorithms on Facebook user count data,
satellite and geospatial data, and household survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).
satellite and geospatial data, and household survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).