Callie Cox
@calliecox.bsky.social
🤓 Your resident market nerd 💙 Author of OptimistiCallie 👉 https://www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
November 10, 2025 at 4:53 PM
🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
😵💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵💫
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
November 3, 2025 at 5:53 PM
😵💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵💫
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Strange: the 2-year yield is up 12 basis points on the day, its biggest move higher on a Fed day since March 2008.
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
October 29, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Strange: the 2-year yield is up 12 basis points on the day, its biggest move higher on a Fed day since March 2008.
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
October 27, 2025 at 6:15 PM
MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
October 27, 2025 at 3:30 PM
🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
October 20, 2025 at 12:45 PM
🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
Two interesting stats:
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
October 16, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Two interesting stats:
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
October 13, 2025 at 1:17 PM
🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
October 6, 2025 at 1:49 PM
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
October 6, 2025 at 1:45 PM
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
The S&P 500's average year vs. its five best and worst years.
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
October 5, 2025 at 10:21 PM
The S&P 500's average year vs. its five best and worst years.
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
“Stocks can’t fall when no bad news is coming out” is the new “my team can’t lose if it’s a bye week” 😉😉😉
October 2, 2025 at 1:05 PM
“Stocks can’t fall when no bad news is coming out” is the new “my team can’t lose if it’s a bye week” 😉😉😉
All around bad data dump for the job market this morning:
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
September 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
All around bad data dump for the job market this morning:
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
🛑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🛑
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
September 29, 2025 at 1:01 PM
🛑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🛑
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
What you need to know about government shutdowns, with the next one (maybe) 53 hours away, eek!
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
September 28, 2025 at 10:58 PM
What you need to know about government shutdowns, with the next one (maybe) 53 hours away, eek!
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
🏡 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏡
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
September 23, 2025 at 11:23 AM
🏡 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏡
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
🫵 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🫵
Why you should stop sitting on your hands & invest RIGHT NOW
Reason 1: You can't rely on wages alone to help you build wealth
Climbing the corporate ladder hasn't worked since the 1970s
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-you-sh...
Why you should stop sitting on your hands & invest RIGHT NOW
Reason 1: You can't rely on wages alone to help you build wealth
Climbing the corporate ladder hasn't worked since the 1970s
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-you-sh...
September 16, 2025 at 12:18 PM
🫵 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🫵
Why you should stop sitting on your hands & invest RIGHT NOW
Reason 1: You can't rely on wages alone to help you build wealth
Climbing the corporate ladder hasn't worked since the 1970s
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-you-sh...
Why you should stop sitting on your hands & invest RIGHT NOW
Reason 1: You can't rely on wages alone to help you build wealth
Climbing the corporate ladder hasn't worked since the 1970s
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-you-sh...
📈 THE COMPOUND CHART PACK 📈
Hopium, surprise market leaders, and why $1 trillion in margin debt is NBD
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
Hopium, surprise market leaders, and why $1 trillion in margin debt is NBD
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
September 11, 2025 at 1:33 PM
📈 THE COMPOUND CHART PACK 📈
Hopium, surprise market leaders, and why $1 trillion in margin debt is NBD
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
Hopium, surprise market leaders, and why $1 trillion in margin debt is NBD
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
🍟 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍟
Small caps (/small fries) may be hobbled, but that doesn't mean they're dead
What we need to see for a real small-cap revival:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/revenge-of...
Small caps (/small fries) may be hobbled, but that doesn't mean they're dead
What we need to see for a real small-cap revival:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/revenge-of...
September 8, 2025 at 3:52 PM
🍟 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍟
Small caps (/small fries) may be hobbled, but that doesn't mean they're dead
What we need to see for a real small-cap revival:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/revenge-of...
Small caps (/small fries) may be hobbled, but that doesn't mean they're dead
What we need to see for a real small-cap revival:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/revenge-of...
Small caps do well in high-growth, low-rate environments.
How do I know?
Because they've led in year 1 of every bull market since 1929 (with the exception of this one and 1938😵💫)
Small caps aren't dead.
Tomorrow on OptimistiCallie.
(subscribe here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe)
How do I know?
Because they've led in year 1 of every bull market since 1929 (with the exception of this one and 1938😵💫)
Small caps aren't dead.
Tomorrow on OptimistiCallie.
(subscribe here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe)
September 7, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Small caps do well in high-growth, low-rate environments.
How do I know?
Because they've led in year 1 of every bull market since 1929 (with the exception of this one and 1938😵💫)
Small caps aren't dead.
Tomorrow on OptimistiCallie.
(subscribe here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe)
How do I know?
Because they've led in year 1 of every bull market since 1929 (with the exception of this one and 1938😵💫)
Small caps aren't dead.
Tomorrow on OptimistiCallie.
(subscribe here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe)
Drives to the airport are some of the best drives you can take.
Almost as good as drives back from the airport.
Almost as good as drives back from the airport.
September 7, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Drives to the airport are some of the best drives you can take.
Almost as good as drives back from the airport.
Almost as good as drives back from the airport.
Something I find interesting:
If the job market was your reason for staying optimistic in 2022, you're probably more pessimistic than the average talking head right now.
Employment was the brightest spot in 2022.
Now, it's the darkest.
If the job market was your reason for staying optimistic in 2022, you're probably more pessimistic than the average talking head right now.
Employment was the brightest spot in 2022.
Now, it's the darkest.
September 5, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Something I find interesting:
If the job market was your reason for staying optimistic in 2022, you're probably more pessimistic than the average talking head right now.
Employment was the brightest spot in 2022.
Now, it's the darkest.
If the job market was your reason for staying optimistic in 2022, you're probably more pessimistic than the average talking head right now.
Employment was the brightest spot in 2022.
Now, it's the darkest.
📈 THE COMPOUND CHART PACK, vol 2 📈
Insane expectations, bonds behaving badly and reincarnation
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
Insane expectations, bonds behaving badly and reincarnation
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
September 4, 2025 at 5:52 PM
📈 THE COMPOUND CHART PACK, vol 2 📈
Insane expectations, bonds behaving badly and reincarnation
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
Insane expectations, bonds behaving badly and reincarnation
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
🏃♀️ NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏃♀️
Run your own race.
Your benchmark is yourself, not the S&P 500 (ft this sweet Callan chart of S&P sector returns)
www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-yo...
Run your own race.
Your benchmark is yourself, not the S&P 500 (ft this sweet Callan chart of S&P sector returns)
www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-yo...
September 3, 2025 at 1:56 PM
🏃♀️ NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏃♀️
Run your own race.
Your benchmark is yourself, not the S&P 500 (ft this sweet Callan chart of S&P sector returns)
www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-yo...
Run your own race.
Your benchmark is yourself, not the S&P 500 (ft this sweet Callan chart of S&P sector returns)
www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-yo...
