Cale Clinton
banner
caleclinton.bsky.social
Cale Clinton
@caleclinton.bsky.social
Athletic NFL Staff Editor. NFL data stuff, occasional movie posting. Formerly Football Outsiders, USA Today, Deadspin
No the logic’s definitely there. A handful of these go to OT, which helps too. I was just surprised that those kinds of historic totals only turn into wins at just better than coin-flip odds
December 3, 2024 at 4:12 PM
One I was really surprised by: the Dallas Cowboys are 0-6 in their six highest passing games in franchise history.
December 3, 2024 at 3:54 PM
December 3, 2024 at 3:10 PM
The per-month stuff rules. Tougher for albums bc I’ll throw on sets for peloton rides/get-togethers sometimes, but the songs are a nice snapshot of what I got hooked on for a few weeks
December 3, 2024 at 3:10 PM
Taking a break from Radiohead to participate in cultural moments, then going back for more Radiohead
December 3, 2024 at 3:00 PM
If MVPs are equal parts stats and narrative, Saquon Barkley has both. The Hard Knocks clips, the backwards-hurdle, and the Eagles' NFC dominance give you the narrative. The franchise records and once-in-a-decade rushing performance give you the stats.

Tell the story of the 2024 season. Saquon MVP.
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
The tides are shifting. The pendulum is starting to swing back to more hard-nosed, physical football.

Saquon Barkley strattles the line between the speed/finesse game that dominated the last five years and the physical style that could be cultivated the next five
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
Philadelphia is a good offense turned great by the single acquisition of Saquon. This is also coming after several years of PHI being an elite, high-scoring rushing attack.

The Eagles had the fifth-most rushing TDs in NFL history just two years ago, but this team is clearing them by EPA totals.
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
Collectively, the Eagles rushing attack is operating with an efficiency not seen in over a decade. PHI is averaging 5.2 rush EPA added per 100 snaps this season. Only 8 teams have hit 5.0 rush EPA/100 snaps this century, and no team has since 2011.

Just 9 teams have a POSITIVE rush EPA/100 this yr
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
Then you look at his EPA numbers. Barley is averaging 0.12 offensive rushing EPA/play, eighth-most in the 21st century (min. 225 carries), has not been done since the '00s.

Again, 2 of the 8 players (LT, Alexander) to hit this mark picked up MVP awards. Neither had Barkley's receiving efficiency.
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
Barkley accounts for 34.2% of all PHI offensive touchdowns, one of only 10 skill players to account for at least 30% of his team's TDs.

Of those 10, only Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Ja'Marr Chase are also playing on offenses ranked top-10 in offensive EPA/Play
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
Barkley doesn't score as much as other MVPs. He likely won't sniff the lofty totals put up by former MVPs LT (31), Shaun Alexander (28), or Marshall Faulk (26), but Barkley is still an offensive engine.

Barkley gets GL TDs vultured by Hurts, but Barkley still accounts for 13 of the Eagles' 38 TDs.
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
It's even more impressive on a per-touch basis.

Barkley is averaging 6.1 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per touch. Only seven RBs have averaged at least 6 YPC on 200+ carries, last done in Adrian Peterson's MVP campaign.

Only 5 other seasons have seen at least 6.4 YPT with min. 275 touches
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
His additional 22.3 rec yds/gm put him up closer to 150 yards from scrimmage per game. Hitting 2,350 yards would put Barkley in elite company -- just six other players have hit that mark in NFL history. Two (Sanders, LT) won MVP.
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
Saquon Barkley is getting close to hitting those benchmarks. At 124.9 rush yds/gm, Barkley is just the fifth running back to average those totals for a single season. Each went on to rush for 2,000 yards.

While Barkley is projected to fall just shy of that benchmark (given a Week 18 bye)...
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
The argument looked something like this:

-Averaging about ~100 rushing yards per game, or about ~140 all-purpose yards per game to eventually crack 2,000 APY in a season
-Lots of scoring
-Shining on a contending team

It was the case for CMC, which was clearly derailed by injury

HOWEVER...
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
Thinking NBA rules, that’s on me
November 29, 2024 at 1:21 AM
Build the whole defense out of 11 Overshowns
November 28, 2024 at 11:51 PM
Forgot team leader in TFLs. Sixth-lowest average tackle depth among LBs (min. 50 tackles). Cowboys have to be excited about his development
November 28, 2024 at 10:43 PM