Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
@caerib.bsky.social
Professor of Marketing at FGV-EAESP. Opinion my own. RT/❤️ != endorsement. #AI #rstats
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
The default prior for the intercept in both {rstanarm} and {brms} are very wide.
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
November 18, 2025 at 2:01 PM
The default prior for the intercept in both {rstanarm} and {brms} are very wide.
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
A quick (1000 words) read to enjoy with your morning coffee or afternoon tea:
"Psychology wants to stay WEIRD, not go WILD"
Why hasn't psychology diversified it samples, methods, theories, etc.? Because it doesn't want to. osf.io/preprints/ps...
"Psychology wants to stay WEIRD, not go WILD"
Why hasn't psychology diversified it samples, methods, theories, etc.? Because it doesn't want to. osf.io/preprints/ps...
November 13, 2025 at 2:59 PM
A quick (1000 words) read to enjoy with your morning coffee or afternoon tea:
"Psychology wants to stay WEIRD, not go WILD"
Why hasn't psychology diversified it samples, methods, theories, etc.? Because it doesn't want to. osf.io/preprints/ps...
"Psychology wants to stay WEIRD, not go WILD"
Why hasn't psychology diversified it samples, methods, theories, etc.? Because it doesn't want to. osf.io/preprints/ps...
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
#statstab #458 Causal inference for observational data using {modelbased}
Thoughts: IPW, g-computation, and more. Learning OS and ways to compute ATE for (more accurate, but still not great) inference.
#gcomputation #ipw #iptw #observational #inference
easystats.github.io/modelbased/a...
Thoughts: IPW, g-computation, and more. Learning OS and ways to compute ATE for (more accurate, but still not great) inference.
#gcomputation #ipw #iptw #observational #inference
easystats.github.io/modelbased/a...
Case Study: Causal inference for observational data using modelbased
easystats.github.io
November 12, 2025 at 8:23 PM
#statstab #458 Causal inference for observational data using {modelbased}
Thoughts: IPW, g-computation, and more. Learning OS and ways to compute ATE for (more accurate, but still not great) inference.
#gcomputation #ipw #iptw #observational #inference
easystats.github.io/modelbased/a...
Thoughts: IPW, g-computation, and more. Learning OS and ways to compute ATE for (more accurate, but still not great) inference.
#gcomputation #ipw #iptw #observational #inference
easystats.github.io/modelbased/a...
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
We'll start sending this week's issue today at 9am PT / 12pm ET / 6pm CET
Join 4k+ of top researchers and practitioners for free at CausalPython.io
3/3
#CausalSky
Join 4k+ of top researchers and practitioners for free at CausalPython.io
3/3
#CausalSky
Causal Python || Your go-to resource for learning about Causality in Python
A page where you can learn about causal inference in Python, causal discovery in Python and causal structure learning in Python. How to causal inference in Python?
CausalPython.io
November 2, 2025 at 10:20 AM
We'll start sending this week's issue today at 9am PT / 12pm ET / 6pm CET
Join 4k+ of top researchers and practitioners for free at CausalPython.io
3/3
#CausalSky
Join 4k+ of top researchers and practitioners for free at CausalPython.io
3/3
#CausalSky
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Can Game Theory Help Us with Causal Discovery?
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
November 2, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Can Game Theory Help Us with Causal Discovery?
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
We were wrong about the strength of more personalized instruments! Vignette instruments had the largest treatment effects on emotions that we studied, except for anger. Images (we looked photographs from affective image inventories) tended to work well, too.
(9/17)
(9/17)
August 13, 2025 at 6:16 PM
We were wrong about the strength of more personalized instruments! Vignette instruments had the largest treatment effects on emotions that we studied, except for anger. Images (we looked photographs from affective image inventories) tended to work well, too.
(9/17)
(9/17)
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
This paper:
1. Shows that the big challenges in emotions experiments are instrumental variable challenges: weak instruments, violations of the exclusion restriction, compliance.
2. Identifies emotion manipulations that work even in online surveys.
(4/17)
1. Shows that the big challenges in emotions experiments are instrumental variable challenges: weak instruments, violations of the exclusion restriction, compliance.
2. Identifies emotion manipulations that work even in online surveys.
(4/17)
August 13, 2025 at 6:16 PM
This paper:
1. Shows that the big challenges in emotions experiments are instrumental variable challenges: weak instruments, violations of the exclusion restriction, compliance.
2. Identifies emotion manipulations that work even in online surveys.
(4/17)
1. Shows that the big challenges in emotions experiments are instrumental variable challenges: weak instruments, violations of the exclusion restriction, compliance.
2. Identifies emotion manipulations that work even in online surveys.
(4/17)
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
🚨 Updated working paper!
Ekin Dursun and I ask what instruments best manipulate emotions on surveys (osf.io/56h4g).
We find that vignettes really work! They have large effects on emotions of interest & smaller effects on emotions *not* of interest.
But as always, it's complicated.👇
(1/17)
Ekin Dursun and I ask what instruments best manipulate emotions on surveys (osf.io/56h4g).
We find that vignettes really work! They have large effects on emotions of interest & smaller effects on emotions *not* of interest.
But as always, it's complicated.👇
(1/17)
August 13, 2025 at 6:16 PM
🚨 Updated working paper!
Ekin Dursun and I ask what instruments best manipulate emotions on surveys (osf.io/56h4g).
We find that vignettes really work! They have large effects on emotions of interest & smaller effects on emotions *not* of interest.
But as always, it's complicated.👇
(1/17)
Ekin Dursun and I ask what instruments best manipulate emotions on surveys (osf.io/56h4g).
We find that vignettes really work! They have large effects on emotions of interest & smaller effects on emotions *not* of interest.
But as always, it's complicated.👇
(1/17)
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
New paper online!🎉
We introduce a new concept: AI-related conspiracy theory, which claims that powerful humans use AI for malicious purposes or AI itself eventually controls humans.
Yes, this is inspired by the movie “the Matrix”.👻
bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
We introduce a new concept: AI-related conspiracy theory, which claims that powerful humans use AI for malicious purposes or AI itself eventually controls humans.
Yes, this is inspired by the movie “the Matrix”.👻
bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
April 1, 2025 at 5:30 PM
New paper online!🎉
We introduce a new concept: AI-related conspiracy theory, which claims that powerful humans use AI for malicious purposes or AI itself eventually controls humans.
Yes, this is inspired by the movie “the Matrix”.👻
bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
We introduce a new concept: AI-related conspiracy theory, which claims that powerful humans use AI for malicious purposes or AI itself eventually controls humans.
Yes, this is inspired by the movie “the Matrix”.👻
bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
ICYMI: Thanh Liêm Nguyen's deep dive into applying causal inference to measure the effect of product unavailability on retail sales at Carrefour.
Analysis of Sales Shift in Retail with Causal Impact: A Case Study at Carrefour | Towards Data Science
Applying causal inference to measure the effect of product unavailability on retail sales at Carrefour
towardsdatascience.com
October 13, 2025 at 4:48 PM
ICYMI: Thanh Liêm Nguyen's deep dive into applying causal inference to measure the effect of product unavailability on retail sales at Carrefour.
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Not sure it’s quite what you want but making the point that big data doesn’t guard against bias
declaredesign.org/blog/posts/w...
declaredesign.org/blog/posts/w...
With great power comes great responsibility – DeclareDesign
declaredesign.org
October 13, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Not sure it’s quite what you want but making the point that big data doesn’t guard against bias
declaredesign.org/blog/posts/w...
declaredesign.org/blog/posts/w...
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Not your focus, but you might want to pair it, at least as recommended reading, with the recent Stewart/Sperling piece on IBE IN JOP. I for one find John D. Huber's points here very important, too: goodauthority.org/news/is-theo...
Is theory getting lost in the "identification revolution"?
The following is a guest post from Columbia University political scientist John Huber, and is a slightly modified version of […]
goodauthority.org
October 13, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Not your focus, but you might want to pair it, at least as recommended reading, with the recent Stewart/Sperling piece on IBE IN JOP. I for one find John D. Huber's points here very important, too: goodauthority.org/news/is-theo...
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Wow. Fantastic. This seems exactly like what I am looking for thanks!
For others:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
For others:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
University of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent
www.journals.uchicago.edu
October 13, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Wow. Fantastic. This seems exactly like what I am looking for thanks!
For others:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
For others:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Colleagues: What’s your favorite, accessible resource (reading, video, slide deck) to convince students that regression on observational data—even with many controls—is not often causal. (Quasi-)experimental designs are preferred for causal inference.
October 13, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Colleagues: What’s your favorite, accessible resource (reading, video, slide deck) to convince students that regression on observational data—even with many controls—is not often causal. (Quasi-)experimental designs are preferred for causal inference.
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
🚨New Preprint: We develop a novel task that probes counterfactual thinking without using counterfactual language, and that teases apart genuine counterfactual thinking from related forms of thinking. Using this task, we find that the ability for counterfactual thinking emerges around 5 years of age.
October 13, 2025 at 7:58 PM
🚨New Preprint: We develop a novel task that probes counterfactual thinking without using counterfactual language, and that teases apart genuine counterfactual thinking from related forms of thinking. Using this task, we find that the ability for counterfactual thinking emerges around 5 years of age.
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Congratulations to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their well-deserved Nobel Prize in economics!
Their groundbreaking work opened the black box of innovation in relation to economic growth, both being core features of modern economies and human wellbeing
#EconSky
Their groundbreaking work opened the black box of innovation in relation to economic growth, both being core features of modern economies and human wellbeing
#EconSky
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025 was awarded "for having explained innovation-driven economic growth" with one half to Joel Mokyr "for having identified ...
www.nobelprize.org
October 13, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Congratulations to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their well-deserved Nobel Prize in economics!
Their groundbreaking work opened the black box of innovation in relation to economic growth, both being core features of modern economies and human wellbeing
#EconSky
Their groundbreaking work opened the black box of innovation in relation to economic growth, both being core features of modern economies and human wellbeing
#EconSky
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Pewter Howitt share economics prize for work that underlines the importance of investing in research and development.
go.nature.com/4hj9NNV
go.nature.com/4hj9NNV
Economics Nobel prize won by researchers who showed how science boosts growth
Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Pewter Howitt share economics prize for work that underlines the importance of investing in research and development.
go.nature.com
October 13, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Pewter Howitt share economics prize for work that underlines the importance of investing in research and development.
go.nature.com/4hj9NNV
go.nature.com/4hj9NNV
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
And the investigation can ultimately lead to a better graphic which makes the causality clearer.
October 10, 2025 at 8:11 AM
And the investigation can ultimately lead to a better graphic which makes the causality clearer.
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Note that if you want this, don't say "draw me a chart of..." that probably gets you something imagined from its prior. Here I ask it to tell me a story of the key events that led to the decline of horses in the US and then map those events to real data with a chart in matplotlib.
October 10, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Note that if you want this, don't say "draw me a chart of..." that probably gets you something imagined from its prior. Here I ask it to tell me a story of the key events that led to the decline of horses in the US and then map those events to real data with a chart in matplotlib.
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
I am pleased to learn that ChatGPT can now make a chart based on real data and discuss the chart with me. And I can ask it questions like "Does this curve look like it represents what I would naively think or is the underlying causality different?" and it can investigate that and comment on it.
October 10, 2025 at 7:49 AM
I am pleased to learn that ChatGPT can now make a chart based on real data and discuss the chart with me. And I can ask it questions like "Does this curve look like it represents what I would naively think or is the underlying causality different?" and it can investigate that and comment on it.
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Some personal notes on causal inference.
thestippe.github.io/statistics/c...
Disclaimer: I am a big fan of Rubin's way of thinking, I think it's simple yet very elegant.
PS: if you have any recommended reading on the topic, pls write me here or DM me if you prefer.
thestippe.github.io/statistics/c...
Disclaimer: I am a big fan of Rubin's way of thinking, I think it's simple yet very elegant.
PS: if you have any recommended reading on the topic, pls write me here or DM me if you prefer.
Causal inference
When association implies causation
thestippe.github.io
October 10, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Some personal notes on causal inference.
thestippe.github.io/statistics/c...
Disclaimer: I am a big fan of Rubin's way of thinking, I think it's simple yet very elegant.
PS: if you have any recommended reading on the topic, pls write me here or DM me if you prefer.
thestippe.github.io/statistics/c...
Disclaimer: I am a big fan of Rubin's way of thinking, I think it's simple yet very elegant.
PS: if you have any recommended reading on the topic, pls write me here or DM me if you prefer.
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
Pleased to see our new paper finally out!
Together with joël bühler and Roberto Iacono, we study income mobility dynamics in Norway using 26 years of high-quality register data.
Main result: upward mobility is primarily driven by labor income — and almost never by capital alone. (1/4)
Together with joël bühler and Roberto Iacono, we study income mobility dynamics in Norway using 26 years of high-quality register data.
Main result: upward mobility is primarily driven by labor income — and almost never by capital alone. (1/4)
Do individuals move ⤴️ or⤵️ the income ladder because of jumps in labor or capital income, or both?
👉Upward mobility is primarily driven by labor income but almost never by capital alone, find @marcoranaldi.bsky.social @joelliambuehler.bsky.social @robertoiacono.org
▶️ wid.world/news-article...
👉Upward mobility is primarily driven by labor income but almost never by capital alone, find @marcoranaldi.bsky.social @joelliambuehler.bsky.social @robertoiacono.org
▶️ wid.world/news-article...
Upward mobility is primarily driven by labor income but almost never by capital alone - WID - World Inequality Database
Upward mobility is primarily driven by labor income but almost never by capital alone This paper studies the dynamics of capital and labor income mobility using high-quality register data from Norway.
wid.world
October 7, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Pleased to see our new paper finally out!
Together with joël bühler and Roberto Iacono, we study income mobility dynamics in Norway using 26 years of high-quality register data.
Main result: upward mobility is primarily driven by labor income — and almost never by capital alone. (1/4)
Together with joël bühler and Roberto Iacono, we study income mobility dynamics in Norway using 26 years of high-quality register data.
Main result: upward mobility is primarily driven by labor income — and almost never by capital alone. (1/4)
Reposted by Carlos E Lourenco (Caê)
In my new WD paper, I analyze the global capital and labor income distributions, highlighting a capitalization process that benefited the global middle class at the start of the 21st century.
📄 Open-access paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.wo...
📊 Database & description: www.mranaldi.com/research
📄 Open-access paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.wo...
📊 Database & description: www.mranaldi.com/research
January 2, 2025 at 12:18 PM
In my new WD paper, I analyze the global capital and labor income distributions, highlighting a capitalization process that benefited the global middle class at the start of the 21st century.
📄 Open-access paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.wo...
📊 Database & description: www.mranaldi.com/research
📄 Open-access paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.wo...
📊 Database & description: www.mranaldi.com/research