John Bistline
@bistline.bsky.social
Energy systems modeling, economics, policy | IPCC, NCA, Stanford/CMU alum | Views my own
RIP Frank Gehry, a legend in every medium.
December 6, 2025 at 5:28 PM
RIP Frank Gehry, a legend in every medium.
New RFF study finds:
-Techs that cut grid demand (rooftop PV) can push avg. prices up and hurt low-income non-adopters.
-Techs raising demand (EVs, heat pumps) push prices down and help them.
In high fixed-cost systems, spreading pizza over more slices makes each slice cheaper.
-Techs that cut grid demand (rooftop PV) can push avg. prices up and hurt low-income non-adopters.
-Techs raising demand (EVs, heat pumps) push prices down and help them.
In high fixed-cost systems, spreading pizza over more slices makes each slice cheaper.
December 4, 2025 at 5:16 PM
New RFF study finds:
-Techs that cut grid demand (rooftop PV) can push avg. prices up and hurt low-income non-adopters.
-Techs raising demand (EVs, heat pumps) push prices down and help them.
In high fixed-cost systems, spreading pizza over more slices makes each slice cheaper.
-Techs that cut grid demand (rooftop PV) can push avg. prices up and hurt low-income non-adopters.
-Techs raising demand (EVs, heat pumps) push prices down and help them.
In high fixed-cost systems, spreading pizza over more slices makes each slice cheaper.
Updated data: US EVs have basically flatlined around ~10% of new car sales since 2023. That's well below Norway/China/EU/California and on the low side of recent model projections, most of which assumed IRA tax credits that have now expired.
December 3, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Updated data: US EVs have basically flatlined around ~10% of new car sales since 2023. That's well below Norway/China/EU/California and on the low side of recent model projections, most of which assumed IRA tax credits that have now expired.
Also check out articles on tariffs by @kclausing.bsky.social, downsizing NOAA by Valerie Karplus and @costasamaras.com, and the Hopperesque cover.
December 3, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Also check out articles on tariffs by @kclausing.bsky.social, downsizing NOAA by Valerie Karplus and @costasamaras.com, and the Hopperesque cover.
Updated CEPR eBook is stacked with great writers and, for some reason, me on "Changes in Federal Climate Policy." I'm assuming this was a data entry error, but I'll take it.
Check out the rest of the free eBook here: cepr.org/publications...
Check out the rest of the free eBook here: cepr.org/publications...
December 3, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Updated CEPR eBook is stacked with great writers and, for some reason, me on "Changes in Federal Climate Policy." I'm assuming this was a data entry error, but I'll take it.
Check out the rest of the free eBook here: cepr.org/publications...
Check out the rest of the free eBook here: cepr.org/publications...
There's a lot of new solar and energy storage in the hopper across the country. Texas and California get the headlines, but look at that swarm of projects popping up across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic.
December 2, 2025 at 5:39 PM
There's a lot of new solar and energy storage in the hopper across the country. Texas and California get the headlines, but look at that swarm of projects popping up across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic.
Worldwide clean energy investment is now roughly 2x fossil fuel spending, per IEA.
December 1, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Worldwide clean energy investment is now roughly 2x fossil fuel spending, per IEA.
If your Thanksgiving table isn’t arguing about the Jones Act, are you even on #EnergySky?
November 27, 2025 at 7:48 PM
If your Thanksgiving table isn’t arguing about the Jones Act, are you even on #EnergySky?
Good figure from a recent ESIG report showing how marginal abatement costs in the electric sector start out low but increase sharply as you approach zero emissions.
November 26, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Good figure from a recent ESIG report showing how marginal abatement costs in the electric sector start out low but increase sharply as you approach zero emissions.
If you're headed home this week, remember: you're not just debating relatives, you're debating decades of lead exposure. Be kind.
November 25, 2025 at 5:24 PM
If you're headed home this week, remember: you're not just debating relatives, you're debating decades of lead exposure. Be kind.
Interesting update to NREL's data center map with Baxtel data.
November 19, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Interesting update to NREL's data center map with Baxtel data.
It's remarkable how closely the projections match how much solar was being installed in the year the projections were made, basically assuming that additions would stay the same in perpetuity.
November 14, 2025 at 4:46 PM
It's remarkable how closely the projections match how much solar was being installed in the year the projections were made, basically assuming that additions would stay the same in perpetuity.
Here's the wild part: IEA's solar projections have usually just matched the actual additions in the year the forecast was made... basically assuming solar additions stay flat forever.
Thankfully, the future keeps showing up early.
Thankfully, the future keeps showing up early.
November 14, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Here's the wild part: IEA's solar projections have usually just matched the actual additions in the year the forecast was made... basically assuming solar additions stay flat forever.
Thankfully, the future keeps showing up early.
Thankfully, the future keeps showing up early.
Solar keeps blowing past expectations, but expectations are catching up. The latest IEA WEO now has PV topping 600 GW per year, though this year's scenarios are actually lower than last year's.
November 13, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Solar keeps blowing past expectations, but expectations are catching up. The latest IEA WEO now has PV topping 600 GW per year, though this year's scenarios are actually lower than last year's.
The U.S. is on track for another record year for clean electricity in 2025: 59 GW additions, which is 92% of new builds. Solar leads again, and storage nearly doubles. The grid is changing fast.
November 12, 2025 at 8:08 PM
The U.S. is on track for another record year for clean electricity in 2025: 59 GW additions, which is 92% of new builds. Solar leads again, and storage nearly doubles. The grid is changing fast.
Peak chart crime: IEA invents Gt₂CO and non-Euclidean timelines. The x-axis is emissions, the labels are years, and a mannequin hikes an Escher ramp to nowhere.
November 12, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Peak chart crime: IEA invents Gt₂CO and non-Euclidean timelines. The x-axis is emissions, the labels are years, and a mannequin hikes an Escher ramp to nowhere.
Exactly. California and Hawaii have high rates but low consumption, so total household energy expenditures are lower than average.
This figure is from our Energy Wallet report: energywallet.epri.com/en/current.h...
This figure is from our Energy Wallet report: energywallet.epri.com/en/current.h...
November 11, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Exactly. California and Hawaii have high rates but low consumption, so total household energy expenditures are lower than average.
This figure is from our Energy Wallet report: energywallet.epri.com/en/current.h...
This figure is from our Energy Wallet report: energywallet.epri.com/en/current.h...
Moral of the story: models are only as good as their data, definitions, and constraints. Also, good models don't replace judgment but organize it. Dantzig's wife studied the menus and said, "I'll put you on my diet." And he lost 22 pounds.
November 10, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Moral of the story: models are only as good as their data, definitions, and constraints. Also, good models don't replace judgment but organize it. Dantzig's wife studied the menus and said, "I'll put you on my diet." And he lost 22 pounds.
Then: two pounds of bran per day. Anne threatens to take him to the hospital, imposes a cap, and swaps in blackstrap molasses. New constraint, similar nutrients. Classic LP substitution.
November 10, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Then: two pounds of bran per day. Anne threatens to take him to the hospital, imposes a cap, and swaps in blackstrap molasses. New constraint, similar nutrients. Classic LP substitution.
Next day the model prescribes 200 bouillon cubes/day. Anne Dantzig drops a legendary pun: "What are you trying to do, corner the bullion market?" Doctor confirms: no upper bound on salt in the requirements. So Dantzig adds one. Behold, the origin story of upper bounds.
November 10, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Next day the model prescribes 200 bouillon cubes/day. Anne Dantzig drops a legendary pun: "What are you trying to do, corner the bullion market?" Doctor confirms: no upper bound on salt in the requirements. So Dantzig adds one. Behold, the origin story of upper bounds.
First menu from the IBM 701 includes... 500 gallons of vinegar. Because the source listed vinegar as "very weak acid" with water content = 0, the model treats it like dense fullness. "I decided vinegar wasn't a food."
November 10, 2025 at 5:55 PM
First menu from the IBM 701 includes... 500 gallons of vinegar. Because the source listed vinegar as "very weak acid" with water content = 0, the model treats it like dense fullness. "I decided vinegar wasn't a food."
While at RAND, Dantzig's doctor tells him to go on a diet. So he models his own diet as an LP to maximize "feeling full." Objective ≈ food weight minus water weight. What could go wrong?
November 10, 2025 at 5:55 PM
While at RAND, Dantzig's doctor tells him to go on a diet. So he models his own diet as an LP to maximize "feeling full." Objective ≈ food weight minus water weight. What could go wrong?
Modeling Monday: In honor of George Dantzig's 111th birthday, everyone knows the "late to class/solves two open problems thinking they were homework" story. Fewer know the hilarious backstory of the diet problem. Buckle up for an operations research thread... 🧵
November 10, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Modeling Monday: In honor of George Dantzig's 111th birthday, everyone knows the "late to class/solves two open problems thinking they were homework" story. Fewer know the hilarious backstory of the diet problem. Buckle up for an operations research thread... 🧵
Ultimately, what matters is the emissions intensity of electricity generation. On that front, you're right that CA is currently lower than TX, but TX has made much faster progress (from a higher starting point) and is catching up to California.
November 6, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Ultimately, what matters is the emissions intensity of electricity generation. On that front, you're right that CA is currently lower than TX, but TX has made much faster progress (from a higher starting point) and is catching up to California.