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beardyblue.bsky.social
beardyblue
@beardyblue.bsky.social
860 followers 610 following 54 posts
DC area, he/him. Video/tabletop/card games, soccer, US law and politics, movies and tv. Skeets and likes regularly delete.
PFP credit: @failnaut.bsky.social
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beardyblue.bsky.social
Kids who were born in the eighties, sound off
A YouTube Music playlist by me called Mannheim goddamn Steamroller, featuring Christmas songs by the band Mannheim Steamroller.
December 1, 2025 at 11:49 AM
beardyblue.bsky.social
One of history's finest and most dedicated beasts. I love her.
A much younger Ben with Callie the dog, who looks concerned.
November 29, 2025 at 3:16 AM
beardyblue.bsky.social
yeahhhhhh bloodbath night! i'm keeping an eye on these things from dave wasserman, who is annoying but really knows electoral math stuff
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict · 2h Pro tip: almost all the attention tonight will be on #NJGov, #VAgov and NYC mayor, but for '26 clues I'll be watching what happens in VA's House of Delegates. Here's why... Dave Wasserman @Redistrict · 2h Replying to @Redistrict Nationally, the median House district voted for Trump by 3.1 pts in 2024. Depending on the final outcome of redistricting, Dems will need to hold/flip seats that voted for Trump by 3-5 pts to win control. Dave Wasserman @Redistrict · 2h Replying to @Redistrict Today, the VA House of Delegates is effectively 51D-49R. But there are eight GOP delegates in districts that voted for Harris in '24, another six in districts that voted for Trump by 0-5 pts, and another seven in districts Trump won by 5-10 pts. Dave Wasserman @Redistrict · 2h If Dems win something like 55-59 HoD seats tonight, it would be a sizable gain but would indicate Dems are pretty much only flipping Harris districts. Nationally, there are only three GOP members in Harris districts - not enough to win Dems the House. Dave Wasserman @Redistrict · 2h However, if Dems win 60+ House of Delegates seats, it would indicate a Dem enthusiasm/turnout edge consistent w/ Dems having a good chance to flip the U.S. House, despite a possible 4-8 seat GOP net gain from newly gerrymandered maps. Dave Wasserman @Redistrict · 2h If Dems win 63+ HoD seats, it would be consistent w/ a lot of strong overperformances we've seen for Dems in downballot races so far in '25 and indicate that Dems should be considered favorites for House control in '26. ave Wasserman @Redistrict Big difference between the VA HoD & U.S. House: today, there are 13 House Dems in Trump seats but zero VA HoD Dems in Trump districts. That gives Dems a head start towards the House majority. Still, I'll be watching the extent to which VA Dems break into Trump turf tonight. Dave Wasserman @Redistrict · 2h Here are the eight GOP-held VA HoD seats won by Harris in '24 that Dems have a great chance to flip: #HD22 Lovejoy (R) #HD57 Owen (R) #HD71 Batten (R) #HD73 Earley (R) #HD75 Coyner (R) #HD82 Taylor (R) #HD86 Cordoza (R) #HD89 OPEN (R) Dave Wasserman @Redistrict · 1h Replying to @Redistrict Here are the six GOP-held VA HoD seats Trump won by 0-5 pts in '24 that could indicate a Dem wave: #HD30 Higgins (R) #HD41 Obenshain (R) #HD64 Milde (R) #HD66 Orrock (R) #HD69 Green (R) #HD99 Tata (R) A defeat of Orrock (longest-serving delegate) would be an exclamation point. Dave Wasserman @Redistrict Here are the seven GOP-held VA HoD seats Trump won by 5-10 pts. If Dems win any of these tonight, *watch out* (it's tsunami territory): #HD34 Wilt (R) #HD40 McNamara (R) #HD49 Marshall (R) #HD52 Walker (R) #HD74 Cherry (R) #HD83 Wachsmann (R) #HD100 Bloxom (R) 6:39 PM · Nov 4, 2025 · 42.8K Views
November 5, 2025 at 1:33 AM