Anthony Painter
@anthonypainter.bsky.social
Policy. Political economy. Increasing bewilderment.
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
Wow. That is truly impressive.
November 29, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Wow. That is truly impressive.
Interesting. Thank you for sharing.
Of note "A (very) rough calibration suggests that the current level
of SNAP benefits may be overly paternalistic."
I'd also say- things like prescription consumption might well be positive (people may have been under-consuming them previous to receiving SSI).
Of note "A (very) rough calibration suggests that the current level
of SNAP benefits may be overly paternalistic."
I'd also say- things like prescription consumption might well be positive (people may have been under-consuming them previous to receiving SSI).
November 29, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Interesting. Thank you for sharing.
Of note "A (very) rough calibration suggests that the current level
of SNAP benefits may be overly paternalistic."
I'd also say- things like prescription consumption might well be positive (people may have been under-consuming them previous to receiving SSI).
Of note "A (very) rough calibration suggests that the current level
of SNAP benefits may be overly paternalistic."
I'd also say- things like prescription consumption might well be positive (people may have been under-consuming them previous to receiving SSI).
Great initiative. This one popped up behind me when I was in Hackney. It wasn't well managed (over 55s often meant one over 55 plus an extended family....) but good example nonetheless.
www.anchor.org.uk/our-properti...
www.anchor.org.uk/our-properti...
Quadra Court
Final retirement apartments now remaining - don't miss your opportunity to own a stunning new home at Quadra.
www.anchor.org.uk
November 29, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Great initiative. This one popped up behind me when I was in Hackney. It wasn't well managed (over 55s often meant one over 55 plus an extended family....) but good example nonetheless.
www.anchor.org.uk/our-properti...
www.anchor.org.uk/our-properti...
Yes, and also prioritising youth unemployment simultaneously....
So many contradictions, impossible to know where it all lands.
So many contradictions, impossible to know where it all lands.
November 29, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Yes, and also prioritising youth unemployment simultaneously....
So many contradictions, impossible to know where it all lands.
So many contradictions, impossible to know where it all lands.
If I'm honest the Amazon one seems ok as I have prime already. Until they put on ads.....
November 29, 2025 at 10:25 AM
If I'm honest the Amazon one seems ok as I have prime already. Until they put on ads.....
In fact, I can see a re-aging of city centres coming. Let's hope anyway.
November 29, 2025 at 10:10 AM
In fact, I can see a re-aging of city centres coming. Let's hope anyway.
The "Conservative clean-up task force"
November 29, 2025 at 9:51 AM
The "Conservative clean-up task force"
Yes, though I do think they will start increasing the personal allowance if they have wriggle room (ie they are right and the OBR is wrong).
And I think taxing salary sacrifice is a toss up.
And I think taxing salary sacrifice is a toss up.
November 29, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Yes, though I do think they will start increasing the personal allowance if they have wriggle room (ie they are right and the OBR is wrong).
And I think taxing salary sacrifice is a toss up.
And I think taxing salary sacrifice is a toss up.
And while all this remains unresolved, this is the graphic outcome. Everything is broken.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
At least 8,000 illegal waste sites in UK, research suggests
Exclusive: Concerns over impact on health and environment, as well as £1.63bn in avoided landfill tax
www.theguardian.com
November 29, 2025 at 9:41 AM
And while all this remains unresolved, this is the graphic outcome. Everything is broken.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Something has to give. Either this unsustainable institutional position is resolved mid-way through this Government or it will plague it into the next election.
It needs a Treasury that is systemically strong but institutionally more of a power sharer. The first allows the latter.
It needs a Treasury that is systemically strong but institutionally more of a power sharer. The first allows the latter.
November 29, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Something has to give. Either this unsustainable institutional position is resolved mid-way through this Government or it will plague it into the next election.
It needs a Treasury that is systemically strong but institutionally more of a power sharer. The first allows the latter.
It needs a Treasury that is systemically strong but institutionally more of a power sharer. The first allows the latter.
It has traditional institutional power but not strategic power.
So it has to double down on intra-Government conflict through cuts.
And makes decisions like imposing tariffs on key export industries (HE).
These conflicts become more intense because growth doesn't provide enough oil to lubricate.
So it has to double down on intra-Government conflict through cuts.
And makes decisions like imposing tariffs on key export industries (HE).
These conflicts become more intense because growth doesn't provide enough oil to lubricate.
November 29, 2025 at 9:37 AM
It has traditional institutional power but not strategic power.
So it has to double down on intra-Government conflict through cuts.
And makes decisions like imposing tariffs on key export industries (HE).
These conflicts become more intense because growth doesn't provide enough oil to lubricate.
So it has to double down on intra-Government conflict through cuts.
And makes decisions like imposing tariffs on key export industries (HE).
These conflicts become more intense because growth doesn't provide enough oil to lubricate.
There's that. But there's also the "we're doing growth thing that the OBR isn't recognising". It's in every Reeves interview over the past few days.
November 29, 2025 at 9:30 AM
There's that. But there's also the "we're doing growth thing that the OBR isn't recognising". It's in every Reeves interview over the past few days.
That would be pretty cynical. Though plausible. 😂
November 29, 2025 at 9:22 AM
That would be pretty cynical. Though plausible. 😂
This is far and away the craziest one. But she doesn't believe it I'm sure. Yet, they've chosen the anti-growth course.....
November 29, 2025 at 9:08 AM
This is far and away the craziest one. But she doesn't believe it I'm sure. Yet, they've chosen the anti-growth course.....
Though they are addressing that one? NLW and large increases for young people?
November 29, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Though they are addressing that one? NLW and large increases for young people?
Yes, it will be whoever is lucky enough to be in office two governments from now who will reap the rewards....
November 29, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Yes, it will be whoever is lucky enough to be in office two governments from now who will reap the rewards....
By the way, the theory of "lots of small improvements to growth make a substantial difference cumulatively" is a central tenet of "Resolutionism". And that is now our governing paradigm.
economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/endi...
economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/endi...
Ending stagnation - The Inquiry
A New Economic Strategy for Britain
economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org
November 29, 2025 at 8:48 AM
By the way, the theory of "lots of small improvements to growth make a substantial difference cumulatively" is a central tenet of "Resolutionism". And that is now our governing paradigm.
economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/endi...
economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/endi...
Indeed. But cumulatively over four years it's bigger. And gives some room. Highly speculative as you say....
November 29, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Indeed. But cumulatively over four years it's bigger. And gives some room. Highly speculative as you say....
This could go badly wrong....
November 29, 2025 at 8:38 AM
This could go badly wrong....
(eg see Reeves's gloat that her expectations for higher growth this year were right and the OBR's wrong.)
November 29, 2025 at 8:37 AM
(eg see Reeves's gloat that her expectations for higher growth this year were right and the OBR's wrong.)