Anthony Painter
@anthonypainter.bsky.social
Policy. Political economy. Increasing bewilderment.
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
Something's been nagging at me about the Budget. And it's the plans to increase taxation and reduce public spending in an election year.
Why would you do that?
Something's going on. And I think the Government disagrees with the OBR's growth forecasts.
It comes down to this.
Why would you do that?
Something's going on. And I think the Government disagrees with the OBR's growth forecasts.
It comes down to this.
November 29, 2025 at 8:03 AM
Something's been nagging at me about the Budget. And it's the plans to increase taxation and reduce public spending in an election year.
Why would you do that?
Something's going on. And I think the Government disagrees with the OBR's growth forecasts.
It comes down to this.
Why would you do that?
Something's going on. And I think the Government disagrees with the OBR's growth forecasts.
It comes down to this.
I keep seeing arguments that the Government should have spent the money on services eg Sure Start rather than lifting the two-child benefit cap.
The evidence for cash transfers is very strong. And cash transfers go straight to families.
Their decision is completely evidence backed and valid.
The evidence for cash transfers is very strong. And cash transfers go straight to families.
Their decision is completely evidence backed and valid.
November 28, 2025 at 11:41 AM
I keep seeing arguments that the Government should have spent the money on services eg Sure Start rather than lifting the two-child benefit cap.
The evidence for cash transfers is very strong. And cash transfers go straight to families.
Their decision is completely evidence backed and valid.
The evidence for cash transfers is very strong. And cash transfers go straight to families.
Their decision is completely evidence backed and valid.
Yes, and this.
A Resolution rather than a revolution?
economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/endi...
A Resolution rather than a revolution?
economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/endi...
November 27, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Yes, and this.
A Resolution rather than a revolution?
economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/endi...
A Resolution rather than a revolution?
economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/endi...
Yes, I guess I was looking at this chart in the @gilesyb.bsky.social blog yesterday which seems to tell a "household consumption crunch" story more than a "a shift to capital" story (although that has been far more resilient- down to policy choices).
November 27, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Yes, I guess I was looking at this chart in the @gilesyb.bsky.social blog yesterday which seems to tell a "household consumption crunch" story more than a "a shift to capital" story (although that has been far more resilient- down to policy choices).
Not sure fiercely defending houses worth over £2m whilst describing lifting 100,000s of kids out of poverty as "benefits street" is going to work as well for LOTO as she thinks.
November 26, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Not sure fiercely defending houses worth over £2m whilst describing lifting 100,000s of kids out of poverty as "benefits street" is going to work as well for LOTO as she thinks.
Maybe the White House will offer @rutgerbregman.com asylum for his freedom to refer to Trump's corruption being obstructed by the BBC?
November 25, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Maybe the White House will offer @rutgerbregman.com asylum for his freedom to refer to Trump's corruption being obstructed by the BBC?
One day we will stop this silly way of selling regulatory change. No, a single Arctic tern did not stop a nuclear power station being built and the quote itself shows that.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
!["The discovery of one Arctic tern in Anglesey 10 years ago was one of the factors that scuppered Hitachi's AP1000 [reactor] being built there. There were other problems as well, but that was the straw that broke the camel's back,” he said.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oabzqrmabjcgjz4e6fgkjdgn/bafkreia66pylx5rbwhew3ruxcta25dsctuwhudgpsazzwrtoqekrwm6v7q@jpeg)
November 24, 2025 at 7:34 AM
One day we will stop this silly way of selling regulatory change. No, a single Arctic tern did not stop a nuclear power station being built and the quote itself shows that.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
Here is what I said when interviewed for a pamphlet on campaign strategy and directly to the campaign a year or so later. I still think it's right.
November 23, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Here is what I said when interviewed for a pamphlet on campaign strategy and directly to the campaign a year or so later. I still think it's right.
"Needs additional work".
November 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM
"Needs additional work".
AI and productivity. Why it will disappoint for some time yet...
Only "high performers" - only 5% of businesses - have had "transformative" business change from AI.
What's more, these businesses are very likely to be AI businesses anyhow. Business model drives AI rather than vice versa.
Only "high performers" - only 5% of businesses - have had "transformative" business change from AI.
What's more, these businesses are very likely to be AI businesses anyhow. Business model drives AI rather than vice versa.
November 19, 2025 at 9:22 AM
AI and productivity. Why it will disappoint for some time yet...
Only "high performers" - only 5% of businesses - have had "transformative" business change from AI.
What's more, these businesses are very likely to be AI businesses anyhow. Business model drives AI rather than vice versa.
Only "high performers" - only 5% of businesses - have had "transformative" business change from AI.
What's more, these businesses are very likely to be AI businesses anyhow. Business model drives AI rather than vice versa.
One day a Fenland Springsteen will do an album like this about Cambs in November and then you'll all be sorry.
November 19, 2025 at 9:12 AM
One day a Fenland Springsteen will do an album like this about Cambs in November and then you'll all be sorry.
Happened to be in Brum tonight at a loose end and managed to stumble on @politicaltherapy.bsky.social. @jamesbloodworth.bsky.social taking us through the disturbing aspects of the manosphere. Great upstairs room in the pub politics done right.
November 18, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Happened to be in Brum tonight at a loose end and managed to stumble on @politicaltherapy.bsky.social. @jamesbloodworth.bsky.social taking us through the disturbing aspects of the manosphere. Great upstairs room in the pub politics done right.
Net migration is now basically at a sensible level for the UK given our labour market needs.
But the politics is still as if we were at 2023 levels.
And it's falling fast still. We are very likely overcompensating.
But the politics is still as if we were at 2023 levels.
And it's falling fast still. We are very likely overcompensating.
November 18, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Net migration is now basically at a sensible level for the UK given our labour market needs.
But the politics is still as if we were at 2023 levels.
And it's falling fast still. We are very likely overcompensating.
But the politics is still as if we were at 2023 levels.
And it's falling fast still. We are very likely overcompensating.
I'd love to hear a lawyer's view on this. But the notion that you can deny the right to a family life *by default* and it still remain a right seems very shaky.
There will surely be a heavy burden of evidence on the Government for such a "public interest" (as opposed to "public opinion") claim.
There will surely be a heavy burden of evidence on the Government for such a "public interest" (as opposed to "public opinion") claim.
November 18, 2025 at 6:50 AM
I'd love to hear a lawyer's view on this. But the notion that you can deny the right to a family life *by default* and it still remain a right seems very shaky.
There will surely be a heavy burden of evidence on the Government for such a "public interest" (as opposed to "public opinion") claim.
There will surely be a heavy burden of evidence on the Government for such a "public interest" (as opposed to "public opinion") claim.
What I find so depressing about this idea is that if there was ever an obvious argument for coherent, consistent industrial policy it's heating transition.
And whoever is briefing "middle class people can afford them anyway" doesn't understand behavioral economics or the nature of systemic change.
And whoever is briefing "middle class people can afford them anyway" doesn't understand behavioral economics or the nature of systemic change.
November 13, 2025 at 7:57 PM
What I find so depressing about this idea is that if there was ever an obvious argument for coherent, consistent industrial policy it's heating transition.
And whoever is briefing "middle class people can afford them anyway" doesn't understand behavioral economics or the nature of systemic change.
And whoever is briefing "middle class people can afford them anyway" doesn't understand behavioral economics or the nature of systemic change.
What on earth is this nonsense from a Blue Labour MP?
What, you want a policy targeting zero illness, no full time caring responsibilities, no skills mismatches or career breaks and you think we should heavily crack down on migration until we get there?
Just not serious policy/politics.
What, you want a policy targeting zero illness, no full time caring responsibilities, no skills mismatches or career breaks and you think we should heavily crack down on migration until we get there?
Just not serious policy/politics.
November 12, 2025 at 2:43 PM
What on earth is this nonsense from a Blue Labour MP?
What, you want a policy targeting zero illness, no full time caring responsibilities, no skills mismatches or career breaks and you think we should heavily crack down on migration until we get there?
Just not serious policy/politics.
What, you want a policy targeting zero illness, no full time caring responsibilities, no skills mismatches or career breaks and you think we should heavily crack down on migration until we get there?
Just not serious policy/politics.
Yet more evidence for my pothole theory of populism.
Some of the BBC's reporting on Epping etc was ropey but this is good. Captures the generational divide over culture and politics well. Everyone despairs at Britain and each other. via @martinhwheatley.bsky.social
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Some of the BBC's reporting on Epping etc was ropey but this is good. Captures the generational divide over culture and politics well. Everyone despairs at Britain and each other. via @martinhwheatley.bsky.social
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
October 28, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Yet more evidence for my pothole theory of populism.
Some of the BBC's reporting on Epping etc was ropey but this is good. Captures the generational divide over culture and politics well. Everyone despairs at Britain and each other. via @martinhwheatley.bsky.social
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Some of the BBC's reporting on Epping etc was ropey but this is good. Captures the generational divide over culture and politics well. Everyone despairs at Britain and each other. via @martinhwheatley.bsky.social
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
I'm old enough to remember "latch-key" kids. The moral panic in the 80s was kids having *far too much" play time.
Then it was TV, abduction, gaming, sex and violence in movies, murder by delinquents, drugs....
If I were American I'd worry far more about guns and cars stealing outdoor space....
Then it was TV, abduction, gaming, sex and violence in movies, murder by delinquents, drugs....
If I were American I'd worry far more about guns and cars stealing outdoor space....
October 23, 2025 at 8:59 AM
I'm old enough to remember "latch-key" kids. The moral panic in the 80s was kids having *far too much" play time.
Then it was TV, abduction, gaming, sex and violence in movies, murder by delinquents, drugs....
If I were American I'd worry far more about guns and cars stealing outdoor space....
Then it was TV, abduction, gaming, sex and violence in movies, murder by delinquents, drugs....
If I were American I'd worry far more about guns and cars stealing outdoor space....
A letter from the age of truth. Bertrand Russell to Oswald Mosley. We need more of this in our public discourse. Call vile ideologies and the people who peddle them out for who and what they are.
October 22, 2025 at 7:00 PM
A letter from the age of truth. Bertrand Russell to Oswald Mosley. We need more of this in our public discourse. Call vile ideologies and the people who peddle them out for who and what they are.
And, oh look, the Greeks have blocked a deal on taxing climate emissions from shipping backing Trump. And what do they point to in defence... the article above in the FT. Pretty cynical stuff.
October 21, 2025 at 6:52 PM
And, oh look, the Greeks have blocked a deal on taxing climate emissions from shipping backing Trump. And what do they point to in defence... the article above in the FT. Pretty cynical stuff.
This is a welcome quote from Reeves. It doesn't hide behind "the way in which we left the EU" implying there was a good way to leave when there wasn't. It names Brexit directly.
Now we are naming Voldemort we can confront him directly.
Now we are naming Voldemort we can confront him directly.
![We also know – and the OBR, I think, is going to be pretty frank about this [in its next report on the state of the economy, published to coincide with the budget on 26 November] that things like austerity, the cuts to capital spending and Brexit, have had a bigger impact on our economy than even was projected back then.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oabzqrmabjcgjz4e6fgkjdgn/bafkreihjtb6wz3swb44iaiwwh57qi5kqxnbmf7ytylmdp5k4nn6lwzvqim@jpeg)
October 21, 2025 at 11:35 AM
This is a welcome quote from Reeves. It doesn't hide behind "the way in which we left the EU" implying there was a good way to leave when there wasn't. It names Brexit directly.
Now we are naming Voldemort we can confront him directly.
Now we are naming Voldemort we can confront him directly.