Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.bsky.social
Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Visiting prof @collegeofeurope.bsky.social
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, vaccines
📬 [email protected] | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com | 📮open
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, vaccines
📬 [email protected] | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com | 📮open
Ukraine faces US$155bn funding gap for 2026-27
• With US out of the equation, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine plug its budget gap
• Ukraine has also just started negotiations for a new loan with the IMF, but this one will require US signoff
• With US out of the equation, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine plug its budget gap
• Ukraine has also just started negotiations for a new loan with the IMF, but this one will require US signoff
November 28, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Ukraine faces US$155bn funding gap for 2026-27
• With US out of the equation, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine plug its budget gap
• Ukraine has also just started negotiations for a new loan with the IMF, but this one will require US signoff
• With US out of the equation, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine plug its budget gap
• Ukraine has also just started negotiations for a new loan with the IMF, but this one will require US signoff
Prices of export-controlled goods shipped from China to Russia rose by 87% on average in 2021-24
• By contrast, price of similar Chinese goods shipped elsewhere in the world rose by only 9%
• Data show impact of sanctions on Russian war effort as inflated prices curb Russian firms' purchasing power
• By contrast, price of similar Chinese goods shipped elsewhere in the world rose by only 9%
• Data show impact of sanctions on Russian war effort as inflated prices curb Russian firms' purchasing power
November 28, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Prices of export-controlled goods shipped from China to Russia rose by 87% on average in 2021-24
• By contrast, price of similar Chinese goods shipped elsewhere in the world rose by only 9%
• Data show impact of sanctions on Russian war effort as inflated prices curb Russian firms' purchasing power
• By contrast, price of similar Chinese goods shipped elsewhere in the world rose by only 9%
• Data show impact of sanctions on Russian war effort as inflated prices curb Russian firms' purchasing power
KAL's cartoon in this week's The Economist
November 28, 2025 at 8:00 AM
KAL's cartoon in this week's The Economist
US claims over Russian frozen assets amount to just US$5bn, or 1.5% of global total
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
November 27, 2025 at 11:00 AM
US claims over Russian frozen assets amount to just US$5bn, or 1.5% of global total
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
Climate change could fuel spread of infectious diseases
• The warmer and the wetter the weather is, the faster mosquitoes can breed, mature and bite
• Between 1951-60 and 2015-24 potential for Aedes albopictus mosquito to transmit dengue jumped by almost 50%
• The warmer and the wetter the weather is, the faster mosquitoes can breed, mature and bite
• Between 1951-60 and 2015-24 potential for Aedes albopictus mosquito to transmit dengue jumped by almost 50%
November 27, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Climate change could fuel spread of infectious diseases
• The warmer and the wetter the weather is, the faster mosquitoes can breed, mature and bite
• Between 1951-60 and 2015-24 potential for Aedes albopictus mosquito to transmit dengue jumped by almost 50%
• The warmer and the wetter the weather is, the faster mosquitoes can breed, mature and bite
• Between 1951-60 and 2015-24 potential for Aedes albopictus mosquito to transmit dengue jumped by almost 50%
Global progress to curb CO2 emissions remains uneven across top emitters
• Australia, UK, EU and (to a lesser extent) the US have reduced emissions over past 20 years
• China's emissions have grown since '00; country is biggest CO2 emitter (although emissions may now have peaked)
• Australia, UK, EU and (to a lesser extent) the US have reduced emissions over past 20 years
• China's emissions have grown since '00; country is biggest CO2 emitter (although emissions may now have peaked)
November 26, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Global progress to curb CO2 emissions remains uneven across top emitters
• Australia, UK, EU and (to a lesser extent) the US have reduced emissions over past 20 years
• China's emissions have grown since '00; country is biggest CO2 emitter (although emissions may now have peaked)
• Australia, UK, EU and (to a lesser extent) the US have reduced emissions over past 20 years
• China's emissions have grown since '00; country is biggest CO2 emitter (although emissions may now have peaked)
African countries may need to prioritise electrification to boost growth
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
November 25, 2025 at 4:02 PM
African countries may need to prioritise electrification to boost growth
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
US economy is going through AI boom-fuelled productivity spurt
• In first half of 2025 output per hour of labour in durable goods sector grew by record-high 4.9% on annualised basis
• Productivity gains are mostly concentrated in high-tech, hardware sectors that are part of broader AI push
• In first half of 2025 output per hour of labour in durable goods sector grew by record-high 4.9% on annualised basis
• Productivity gains are mostly concentrated in high-tech, hardware sectors that are part of broader AI push
November 25, 2025 at 11:01 AM
US economy is going through AI boom-fuelled productivity spurt
• In first half of 2025 output per hour of labour in durable goods sector grew by record-high 4.9% on annualised basis
• Productivity gains are mostly concentrated in high-tech, hardware sectors that are part of broader AI push
• In first half of 2025 output per hour of labour in durable goods sector grew by record-high 4.9% on annualised basis
• Productivity gains are mostly concentrated in high-tech, hardware sectors that are part of broader AI push
Latest wave of US sanctions appear to have pushed China to curb imports of seaborne Russian oil
• US/UK sanctions on major Chinese refinery of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is key driver for drop
• New sanctions on Lukoil & Rosneft are other key driver behind drop of Russian oil shipments to China
• US/UK sanctions on major Chinese refinery of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is key driver for drop
• New sanctions on Lukoil & Rosneft are other key driver behind drop of Russian oil shipments to China
November 24, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Latest wave of US sanctions appear to have pushed China to curb imports of seaborne Russian oil
• US/UK sanctions on major Chinese refinery of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is key driver for drop
• New sanctions on Lukoil & Rosneft are other key driver behind drop of Russian oil shipments to China
• US/UK sanctions on major Chinese refinery of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is key driver for drop
• New sanctions on Lukoil & Rosneft are other key driver behind drop of Russian oil shipments to China
Climate change kills
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
November 24, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Climate change kills
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
From the US-Russia plan for Ukraine - US firms would get US$100bn in cash from Russia's frozen central bank reserves to invest in Ukraine's reconstruction, with the US (government) ultimately receiving 50% of the profits (US claims over Russia's frozen reserves amount to only US$5bn)
November 21, 2025 at 11:43 AM
From the US-Russia plan for Ukraine - US firms would get US$100bn in cash from Russia's frozen central bank reserves to invest in Ukraine's reconstruction, with the US (government) ultimately receiving 50% of the profits (US claims over Russia's frozen reserves amount to only US$5bn)
Developing economies are increasingly critical to curb global CO2 emissions
• Emissions from middle- and lower-income economies are now higher than those of rich economies
• Most rich economies are reducing CO2 emissions, while those of developing economies are rising
• Emissions from middle- and lower-income economies are now higher than those of rich economies
• Most rich economies are reducing CO2 emissions, while those of developing economies are rising
November 21, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Developing economies are increasingly critical to curb global CO2 emissions
• Emissions from middle- and lower-income economies are now higher than those of rich economies
• Most rich economies are reducing CO2 emissions, while those of developing economies are rising
• Emissions from middle- and lower-income economies are now higher than those of rich economies
• Most rich economies are reducing CO2 emissions, while those of developing economies are rising
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
November 21, 2025 at 8:01 AM
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
China is the world's largest emitter of CO2, but the US retains top spot for emissions per capita
• Trump's love for fossil fuels and hostility to clean tech will slow down US green transition
• Trump has withdrawn from Paris deal, stopped climate data collection and cancelled clean tech projects
• Trump's love for fossil fuels and hostility to clean tech will slow down US green transition
• Trump has withdrawn from Paris deal, stopped climate data collection and cancelled clean tech projects
November 20, 2025 at 4:04 PM
China is the world's largest emitter of CO2, but the US retains top spot for emissions per capita
• Trump's love for fossil fuels and hostility to clean tech will slow down US green transition
• Trump has withdrawn from Paris deal, stopped climate data collection and cancelled clean tech projects
• Trump's love for fossil fuels and hostility to clean tech will slow down US green transition
• Trump has withdrawn from Paris deal, stopped climate data collection and cancelled clean tech projects
Germans do not buy as many cars as they used to, deepening German auto industry's crisis
• Car sales for affordable models plunged in 2019-24 as economic stagnation sank consumer demand
• Cars have also become pricier due to higher costs or supply issues for raw materials, CRMs and chips
• Car sales for affordable models plunged in 2019-24 as economic stagnation sank consumer demand
• Cars have also become pricier due to higher costs or supply issues for raw materials, CRMs and chips
November 20, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Germans do not buy as many cars as they used to, deepening German auto industry's crisis
• Car sales for affordable models plunged in 2019-24 as economic stagnation sank consumer demand
• Cars have also become pricier due to higher costs or supply issues for raw materials, CRMs and chips
• Car sales for affordable models plunged in 2019-24 as economic stagnation sank consumer demand
• Cars have also become pricier due to higher costs or supply issues for raw materials, CRMs and chips
For the first time, climate models show limiting global warming to 1.5°C will not be feasible
• Under current climate policies, global temperatures could rise by 2.6-3.3°C this century
• Range drops to 2.1-2.9°C if countries meet climate pledges and to 1.8-2.3°C if they hit net-zero around 2050
• Under current climate policies, global temperatures could rise by 2.6-3.3°C this century
• Range drops to 2.1-2.9°C if countries meet climate pledges and to 1.8-2.3°C if they hit net-zero around 2050
November 20, 2025 at 8:01 AM
For the first time, climate models show limiting global warming to 1.5°C will not be feasible
• Under current climate policies, global temperatures could rise by 2.6-3.3°C this century
• Range drops to 2.1-2.9°C if countries meet climate pledges and to 1.8-2.3°C if they hit net-zero around 2050
• Under current climate policies, global temperatures could rise by 2.6-3.3°C this century
• Range drops to 2.1-2.9°C if countries meet climate pledges and to 1.8-2.3°C if they hit net-zero around 2050
US tariffs and USAID cuts look set to have huge impact on America's influence in Asean
• China is 1st trade partner of all Asean states, with esp. big footprint in Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia
• Yet US remains Asean’s top source of FDI, with US$74bn in inflows in 2023 (four times more than China)
• China is 1st trade partner of all Asean states, with esp. big footprint in Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia
• Yet US remains Asean’s top source of FDI, with US$74bn in inflows in 2023 (four times more than China)
November 19, 2025 at 4:03 PM
US tariffs and USAID cuts look set to have huge impact on America's influence in Asean
• China is 1st trade partner of all Asean states, with esp. big footprint in Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia
• Yet US remains Asean’s top source of FDI, with US$74bn in inflows in 2023 (four times more than China)
• China is 1st trade partner of all Asean states, with esp. big footprint in Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia
• Yet US remains Asean’s top source of FDI, with US$74bn in inflows in 2023 (four times more than China)
Surging investment in artificial intelligence is reminiscent of dot-com boom of late 1990s
• Markets could eventually crash, for instance if AI fails to deliver huge profits
• AI bubble crash would reverberate through financial system, possibly sparking global banking crisis
• Markets could eventually crash, for instance if AI fails to deliver huge profits
• AI bubble crash would reverberate through financial system, possibly sparking global banking crisis
November 19, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Surging investment in artificial intelligence is reminiscent of dot-com boom of late 1990s
• Markets could eventually crash, for instance if AI fails to deliver huge profits
• AI bubble crash would reverberate through financial system, possibly sparking global banking crisis
• Markets could eventually crash, for instance if AI fails to deliver huge profits
• AI bubble crash would reverberate through financial system, possibly sparking global banking crisis
Younger voters appear increasingly unhappy with direction of travel under Trump 2.0
• Among under-30s, Trump's net approval rating stands at around -40, compared to 0 in January
• Data suggest Republicans could be in trouble in next year’s midterm elections, which will decide control of US Congress
• Among under-30s, Trump's net approval rating stands at around -40, compared to 0 in January
• Data suggest Republicans could be in trouble in next year’s midterm elections, which will decide control of US Congress
November 19, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Younger voters appear increasingly unhappy with direction of travel under Trump 2.0
• Among under-30s, Trump's net approval rating stands at around -40, compared to 0 in January
• Data suggest Republicans could be in trouble in next year’s midterm elections, which will decide control of US Congress
• Among under-30s, Trump's net approval rating stands at around -40, compared to 0 in January
• Data suggest Republicans could be in trouble in next year’s midterm elections, which will decide control of US Congress
US jobs growth has been flat since Summer, with losses in energy, wholesale trade & industrial sectors
• Stats for October may never be available after shutdown hamepered data collection
• Data show companies appear to be maintaining their workforce and slowing hiring
• Stats for October may never be available after shutdown hamepered data collection
• Data show companies appear to be maintaining their workforce and slowing hiring
November 18, 2025 at 4:02 PM
US jobs growth has been flat since Summer, with losses in energy, wholesale trade & industrial sectors
• Stats for October may never be available after shutdown hamepered data collection
• Data show companies appear to be maintaining their workforce and slowing hiring
• Stats for October may never be available after shutdown hamepered data collection
• Data show companies appear to be maintaining their workforce and slowing hiring
Supreme court ruling against tariffs would be unlikely to put an end to Trump's love for custom duties
• US president could turn to other authorities, notably under Sections 301 (China), 232 (sectoral) and 201
• Uncertainty will remain sky-high, making it difficult for firms to make long-term plans
• US president could turn to other authorities, notably under Sections 301 (China), 232 (sectoral) and 201
• Uncertainty will remain sky-high, making it difficult for firms to make long-term plans
November 18, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Supreme court ruling against tariffs would be unlikely to put an end to Trump's love for custom duties
• US president could turn to other authorities, notably under Sections 301 (China), 232 (sectoral) and 201
• Uncertainty will remain sky-high, making it difficult for firms to make long-term plans
• US president could turn to other authorities, notably under Sections 301 (China), 232 (sectoral) and 201
• Uncertainty will remain sky-high, making it difficult for firms to make long-term plans
Despite Trump turmoil, foreign students are not leaving US universities in droves (for now)
• Drop in arrivals could be caused by fewer students returning home over Summer for fear of visa issues
• Number of active student visas is stable and so is share of int'l students in Fall '25 admissions
• Drop in arrivals could be caused by fewer students returning home over Summer for fear of visa issues
• Number of active student visas is stable and so is share of int'l students in Fall '25 admissions
November 18, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Despite Trump turmoil, foreign students are not leaving US universities in droves (for now)
• Drop in arrivals could be caused by fewer students returning home over Summer for fear of visa issues
• Number of active student visas is stable and so is share of int'l students in Fall '25 admissions
• Drop in arrivals could be caused by fewer students returning home over Summer for fear of visa issues
• Number of active student visas is stable and so is share of int'l students in Fall '25 admissions
Recent US trade deals with ASEAN countries aim at forcing Asian economies to decouple from China
• US can terminate deals with Cambodia and Malaysia if these countries get too cozy with Beijing
• Agreements also plan alignment of Cambodia and Malaysia with US export controls and sanctions
• US can terminate deals with Cambodia and Malaysia if these countries get too cozy with Beijing
• Agreements also plan alignment of Cambodia and Malaysia with US export controls and sanctions
November 17, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Recent US trade deals with ASEAN countries aim at forcing Asian economies to decouple from China
• US can terminate deals with Cambodia and Malaysia if these countries get too cozy with Beijing
• Agreements also plan alignment of Cambodia and Malaysia with US export controls and sanctions
• US can terminate deals with Cambodia and Malaysia if these countries get too cozy with Beijing
• Agreements also plan alignment of Cambodia and Malaysia with US export controls and sanctions
Ships carrying Russian oil are increasingly hiding final destination in bid to escape US sanctions
• On paper, amount of Russian oil heading to China and India appears to be falling steeply
• Yet huge quantities of oil on vessels hiding final destination suggests exports to China and India continue
• On paper, amount of Russian oil heading to China and India appears to be falling steeply
• Yet huge quantities of oil on vessels hiding final destination suggests exports to China and India continue
November 17, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Ships carrying Russian oil are increasingly hiding final destination in bid to escape US sanctions
• On paper, amount of Russian oil heading to China and India appears to be falling steeply
• Yet huge quantities of oil on vessels hiding final destination suggests exports to China and India continue
• On paper, amount of Russian oil heading to China and India appears to be falling steeply
• Yet huge quantities of oil on vessels hiding final destination suggests exports to China and India continue
Despite clean tech hegemony, China remains (by far) world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases
• China emits one-third of global CO2 emissions, mostly because of reliance on coal as energy source
• Beijing has yet to reduce emissions per unit of GDP to extent it said it would at Paris COP in 2015
• China emits one-third of global CO2 emissions, mostly because of reliance on coal as energy source
• Beijing has yet to reduce emissions per unit of GDP to extent it said it would at Paris COP in 2015
November 17, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Despite clean tech hegemony, China remains (by far) world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases
• China emits one-third of global CO2 emissions, mostly because of reliance on coal as energy source
• Beijing has yet to reduce emissions per unit of GDP to extent it said it would at Paris COP in 2015
• China emits one-third of global CO2 emissions, mostly because of reliance on coal as energy source
• Beijing has yet to reduce emissions per unit of GDP to extent it said it would at Paris COP in 2015