Hal
@adaptable.bsky.social
Psychotherapist/counselor. Lakers fan. Activism/politics, science interests.
Civilizational collapse is not the result of economic growth. But economic growth leads to resource depletion, which is a factor implicated (or at least theorized- we don't know) for all of those civilization collapses I mentioned.
November 30, 2025 at 10:56 PM
Civilizational collapse is not the result of economic growth. But economic growth leads to resource depletion, which is a factor implicated (or at least theorized- we don't know) for all of those civilization collapses I mentioned.
Ok. Well the original Erlich-Simon bet was on prices of metals. Here's the data over the last 30 yrs. Erlich would win the bet today.
November 30, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Ok. Well the original Erlich-Simon bet was on prices of metals. Here's the data over the last 30 yrs. Erlich would win the bet today.
You also don't have to engage with this debate, it just seemed you had energy to argue earlier. I wrote my undergrad thesis with quite a bit more than "trust me bro" to say that many centuries of evidence was coming to an end, so your responses piqued my interest.
bsky.app/profile/mmas...
bsky.app/profile/mmas...
Yes, but we can look at recorded history, and it shows again and again what I am saying. If you want to argue that many centuries of evidence is now over, you have to provide more than "trust me, bro"
November 30, 2025 at 10:40 PM
You also don't have to engage with this debate, it just seemed you had energy to argue earlier. I wrote my undergrad thesis with quite a bit more than "trust me bro" to say that many centuries of evidence was coming to an end, so your responses piqued my interest.
bsky.app/profile/mmas...
bsky.app/profile/mmas...
That wasn't my intention at all, and I'm sorry if I did misrepresent it. Can you clarify? This was my thinking.
bsky.app/profile/adap...
bsky.app/profile/adap...
Forgive me if I'm mischaracterizing your argument. What I took from this is that you were arguing that. I was at least imagining you included Erlich in the "many people" here.
bsky.app/profile/mmas...
bsky.app/profile/mmas...
I mean, the story of the history of innovation and economic growth says plenty. Many people have predicted that it ends at some point, but there has been zero evidence to support that in the end. You wouldn't be the first to predict it. But everyone else has been wrong.
November 30, 2025 at 10:32 PM
That wasn't my intention at all, and I'm sorry if I did misrepresent it. Can you clarify? This was my thinking.
bsky.app/profile/adap...
bsky.app/profile/adap...
Forgive me if I'm mischaracterizing your argument. What I took from this is that you were arguing that. I was at least imagining you included Erlich in the "many people" here.
bsky.app/profile/mmas...
bsky.app/profile/mmas...
I mean, the story of the history of innovation and economic growth says plenty. Many people have predicted that it ends at some point, but there has been zero evidence to support that in the end. You wouldn't be the first to predict it. But everyone else has been wrong.
November 30, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Forgive me if I'm mischaracterizing your argument. What I took from this is that you were arguing that. I was at least imagining you included Erlich in the "many people" here.
bsky.app/profile/mmas...
bsky.app/profile/mmas...
You're not arguing for growth without limits?
November 30, 2025 at 10:22 PM
You're not arguing for growth without limits?
Economic growth *does* end. It looks like civilization collapse. Ecological laws still apply. Technology allows us to bend those laws, not break them.
November 30, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Economic growth *does* end. It looks like civilization collapse. Ecological laws still apply. Technology allows us to bend those laws, not break them.
This isn't something I'm coming up with. There's a whole area of scholarship around this debate. Malthusians vs cornucopians. You're welcome to argue the cornucopian position, but it's incorrect to say that there is no evidence to the contrary in recorded history.
November 30, 2025 at 10:19 PM
This isn't something I'm coming up with. There's a whole area of scholarship around this debate. Malthusians vs cornucopians. You're welcome to argue the cornucopian position, but it's incorrect to say that there is no evidence to the contrary in recorded history.
Well, your argument seems to be that ecological limits don't apply to economic growth- that "there is no ceiling."
The argument on the side of ecological limits is that the history of civilization collapse still applies when we're talking about modern economies.
The argument on the side of ecological limits is that the history of civilization collapse still applies when we're talking about modern economies.
November 30, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Well, your argument seems to be that ecological limits don't apply to economic growth- that "there is no ceiling."
The argument on the side of ecological limits is that the history of civilization collapse still applies when we're talking about modern economies.
The argument on the side of ecological limits is that the history of civilization collapse still applies when we're talking about modern economies.
Akkadians, Indus valley, Hittites, Aksum, Cahokia, Khmer...I mean it's probably harder to find a civilization that has lasted than one that has collapsed. Ecological collapse is definitely a thing.
November 30, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Akkadians, Indus valley, Hittites, Aksum, Cahokia, Khmer...I mean it's probably harder to find a civilization that has lasted than one that has collapsed. Ecological collapse is definitely a thing.
Are we ignoring the various civilizations that *did* collapse? Easter Island, Mayans, Pueblo, Rome....?
November 30, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Are we ignoring the various civilizations that *did* collapse? Easter Island, Mayans, Pueblo, Rome....?
Yes Keith, you knew how far this woman was willing to go for her influential old man kink, having personally benefited from her influential old man kink when she was 19(!).
I mean, you see that you played a big part in shaping the worst parts of her behavior, right? During a formative time?
I mean, you see that you played a big part in shaping the worst parts of her behavior, right? During a formative time?
November 27, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Yes Keith, you knew how far this woman was willing to go for her influential old man kink, having personally benefited from her influential old man kink when she was 19(!).
I mean, you see that you played a big part in shaping the worst parts of her behavior, right? During a formative time?
I mean, you see that you played a big part in shaping the worst parts of her behavior, right? During a formative time?
Keith, maybe sit this one out?
November 26, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Keith, maybe sit this one out?
That lede is a crime against humanity. Assault of the eyeballs.
November 26, 2025 at 12:10 AM
That lede is a crime against humanity. Assault of the eyeballs.
What is "too many books"
November 24, 2025 at 1:38 AM
What is "too many books"
Reposted by Hal
let me introduce you to a favorite post of mine, by @hypatia.bsky.social and Valerie Aurora.
hypatia.ca/2017/07/18/t...
hypatia.ca/2017/07/18/t...
The Al Capone theory of sexual harassment
We developed the Al Capone Theory over several years of researching and recording racism and sexism in computer security, open source software, venture capital, and other parts of the tech industry…
hypatia.ca
November 12, 2025 at 11:25 PM
let me introduce you to a favorite post of mine, by @hypatia.bsky.social and Valerie Aurora.
hypatia.ca/2017/07/18/t...
hypatia.ca/2017/07/18/t...
We're seeing AI dumbing people down. Rich folks end up doing incredibly dumb things by being surrounded by idiots. I mean, personally my sense of direction and ability to navigate in cities has absolutely been impaired by exvessive use of Google maps.
November 13, 2025 at 7:52 AM
We're seeing AI dumbing people down. Rich folks end up doing incredibly dumb things by being surrounded by idiots. I mean, personally my sense of direction and ability to navigate in cities has absolutely been impaired by exvessive use of Google maps.
Honestly between this and Elon, it's really making clear a "use it or lose it" theory of intelligence/ability.
If you're rich enough, you certainly don't *have* to write intelligently. If it isn't something you value, there's no reinforcers for doing it.
So you stop...and then lose it.
If you're rich enough, you certainly don't *have* to write intelligently. If it isn't something you value, there's no reinforcers for doing it.
So you stop...and then lose it.
November 13, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Honestly between this and Elon, it's really making clear a "use it or lose it" theory of intelligence/ability.
If you're rich enough, you certainly don't *have* to write intelligently. If it isn't something you value, there's no reinforcers for doing it.
So you stop...and then lose it.
If you're rich enough, you certainly don't *have* to write intelligently. If it isn't something you value, there's no reinforcers for doing it.
So you stop...and then lose it.