Adam Corlett
@adamcorlett.bsky.social
Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation 🇬🇧 Views my own.
For prosperity; against poverty, pollution and animal suffering
For prosperity; against poverty, pollution and animal suffering
I think people should be more confident than before the Budget, even if still suspicious
bsky.app/profile/adam...
bsky.app/profile/adam...
Hopefully a 1p Fuel Duty rise in September is a good way to break the taboo, and there's no Budget before then. It is less of a fiscal fiction than it has been, but we'll see... And maybe the approach of small, quarterly, automatic increases could be continued beyond 2026-27, instead of annual jumps
November 27, 2025 at 12:30 PM
I think people should be more confident than before the Budget, even if still suspicious
bsky.app/profile/adam...
bsky.app/profile/adam...
To be optimistic, I don't think this year's £200 VED rise for EVs has deterred buyers?
November 25, 2025 at 4:34 PM
To be optimistic, I don't think this year's £200 VED rise for EVs has deterred buyers?
At the pessimistic end of the scale, at this point it's also totally possible that the Budget could just:
🔴 Cut gas costs more than electricity costs
🔴 Raise taxes on EVs to fund Fuel Duty cuts
🔴 Cut gas costs more than electricity costs
🔴 Raise taxes on EVs to fund Fuel Duty cuts
November 19, 2025 at 8:33 PM
At the pessimistic end of the scale, at this point it's also totally possible that the Budget could just:
🔴 Cut gas costs more than electricity costs
🔴 Raise taxes on EVs to fund Fuel Duty cuts
🔴 Cut gas costs more than electricity costs
🔴 Raise taxes on EVs to fund Fuel Duty cuts
To be pedantic, that's not true of changing salary sacrifice: that's about National Insurance relief
November 14, 2025 at 11:24 AM
To be pedantic, that's not true of changing salary sacrifice: that's about National Insurance relief
And no-one over the age of 15 should be in education?
November 12, 2025 at 2:52 PM
And no-one over the age of 15 should be in education?
Further info here: bsky.app/profile/clea...
CPS assumption #1:
EVs are not adopted beyond EU+China (really!):
🟡EV sales share outside of EU+China is assumed to remain the same in 2050 as it was in 2024. E.g. India stays at 2% EV sales share in 2024 through to 2050.
EVs are not adopted beyond EU+China (really!):
🟡EV sales share outside of EU+China is assumed to remain the same in 2050 as it was in 2024. E.g. India stays at 2% EV sales share in 2024 through to 2050.
November 12, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Further info here: bsky.app/profile/clea...
Worth noting that part of the story here seems to be that the IEA has been pressured by the US to highlight a more favourable fossil fuel scenario: bsky.app/profile/drsi...
NEW: Global fossil fuel use will peak before 2030 – unless 'stated policies' are abandoned
Contra some terrible news coverage, IEA World Energy Outlook shows coal near peak, oil peaking by 2030 & gas by 2035 (see chart)
What's going on? 🧵 + cool charts
www.carbonbrief.org/iea-fossil-f...
Contra some terrible news coverage, IEA World Energy Outlook shows coal near peak, oil peaking by 2030 & gas by 2035 (see chart)
What's going on? 🧵 + cool charts
www.carbonbrief.org/iea-fossil-f...
November 12, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Worth noting that part of the story here seems to be that the IEA has been pressured by the US to highlight a more favourable fossil fuel scenario: bsky.app/profile/drsi...
Yes, I am making a big assumption that they step in to ensure bills fall rather than rise in April (via electricity cuts, hopefully)
November 11, 2025 at 9:28 PM
Yes, I am making a big assumption that they step in to ensure bills fall rather than rise in April (via electricity cuts, hopefully)
I'm not sure employer NI pension relief is a good way to direct >£20bn a year, but even if it is then it seems strange to deliver some of that in a really bureaucratic way that is random across employees, excludes the lowest paid and is harder for small businesses.
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 PM
I'm not sure employer NI pension relief is a good way to direct >£20bn a year, but even if it is then it seems strange to deliver some of that in a really bureaucratic way that is random across employees, excludes the lowest paid and is harder for small businesses.