Aaron
@aaronznj.bsky.social
Official home of the dork who decided to use my Urban Planning Master's Degree for the primary purpose of "make an alternate-history N Scale NJ Transit layout."
All opinions are mine (and you can't have them!), and they’re all wrong or your money back!
All opinions are mine (and you can't have them!), and they’re all wrong or your money back!
Fuck that we're absolutely making a run this year.
It's really crazy how much fight this team has in them. Offense has been insane, and the defense is absolutely nails despite having been injured all to hell.
It's really crazy how much fight this team has in them. Offense has been insane, and the defense is absolutely nails despite having been injured all to hell.
November 29, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Fuck that we're absolutely making a run this year.
It's really crazy how much fight this team has in them. Offense has been insane, and the defense is absolutely nails despite having been injured all to hell.
It's really crazy how much fight this team has in them. Offense has been insane, and the defense is absolutely nails despite having been injured all to hell.
There's a very applicable analogy for the civic unity embraced by Gondor versus Arnor's split into Cardolan, Arthedain, and Rhudaur right here in the form of New York City compared to Bergen County NJ's experience with Boroughitis.
November 23, 2025 at 1:37 AM
There's a very applicable analogy for the civic unity embraced by Gondor versus Arnor's split into Cardolan, Arthedain, and Rhudaur right here in the form of New York City compared to Bergen County NJ's experience with Boroughitis.
I feel like some of the hints were there. People spent all that time criticizing her for being a policy "lightweight." But the other side of that coin is she isn't attuned to all the dumb excuses the Machine comes up with for why we can't have nice things.
November 22, 2025 at 2:39 PM
I feel like some of the hints were there. People spent all that time criticizing her for being a policy "lightweight." But the other side of that coin is she isn't attuned to all the dumb excuses the Machine comes up with for why we can't have nice things.
Part of me thinks we should be rooting for the Texas map right now. The GOP has become extremely toxic extremely quickly, even compared to 2018 when Redmap thoroughly backfired and they lost 42 house seats in a single night. As the saying goes, don't interrupt your enemy when they make a mistake.
November 22, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Part of me thinks we should be rooting for the Texas map right now. The GOP has become extremely toxic extremely quickly, even compared to 2018 when Redmap thoroughly backfired and they lost 42 house seats in a single night. As the saying goes, don't interrupt your enemy when they make a mistake.
Not for congress she isn’t!
November 22, 2025 at 2:19 AM
Not for congress she isn’t!
Commuter Rail. Bus. Light Rail. Access Link. Long ago, the four parts of NJT worked together in harmony. Then, everything changed when Chris Christie won in 2009....
November 21, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Commuter Rail. Bus. Light Rail. Access Link. Long ago, the four parts of NJT worked together in harmony. Then, everything changed when Chris Christie won in 2009....
There's a lot of megaprojects that are "worth it" and also extremely unrealistic to expect they'll happen in our lifetimes.
Even a partial expansion of NJT electrification is optimistic given how little NJT builds/has built in recent years.
Even a partial expansion of NJT electrification is optimistic given how little NJT builds/has built in recent years.
November 21, 2025 at 6:28 PM
There's a lot of megaprojects that are "worth it" and also extremely unrealistic to expect they'll happen in our lifetimes.
Even a partial expansion of NJT electrification is optimistic given how little NJT builds/has built in recent years.
Even a partial expansion of NJT electrification is optimistic given how little NJT builds/has built in recent years.
It's ok to disagree with my reasoning - it's *far* from perfect and does lean into some pretty subjective definition stuff.
November 21, 2025 at 5:51 PM
It's ok to disagree with my reasoning - it's *far* from perfect and does lean into some pretty subjective definition stuff.
Getting people to take the train in the first place, as well as bus-->train modal shift?
November 21, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Getting people to take the train in the first place, as well as bus-->train modal shift?
ok, so you agree with my placement of *FULL SYSTEM* electrification in that first bucket!
November 21, 2025 at 2:54 PM
ok, so you agree with my placement of *FULL SYSTEM* electrification in that first bucket!
Full system is what it says on the tin. It's not "the stuff that gets thrown around" it's "NJT can scrap 100% of the diesel fleet". Not 90%, not 80%, 100%. That last 10-20% is what pushed it into Mega/Improbable.
November 21, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Full system is what it says on the tin. It's not "the stuff that gets thrown around" it's "NJT can scrap 100% of the diesel fleet". Not 90%, not 80%, 100%. That last 10-20% is what pushed it into Mega/Improbable.
NJT was doing small scale expansions but even back in the 1980's Coast Line ended up being done in two phases and BH-LB got dropped for cost/land issues.
If they couldn't get the whole Coast Line in the 80's, I'm not holding my breath on stuff like Southern Tier or PVL or AC Line.
If they couldn't get the whole Coast Line in the 80's, I'm not holding my breath on stuff like Southern Tier or PVL or AC Line.
November 21, 2025 at 2:52 PM
NJT was doing small scale expansions but even back in the 1980's Coast Line ended up being done in two phases and BH-LB got dropped for cost/land issues.
If they couldn't get the whole Coast Line in the 80's, I'm not holding my breath on stuff like Southern Tier or PVL or AC Line.
If they couldn't get the whole Coast Line in the 80's, I'm not holding my breath on stuff like Southern Tier or PVL or AC Line.
Also, the delineation as I see it isn't just about literal feasibility (i.e. "can this be built") it's also budgetary and BCA-influenced.
You can make a design drawing for AC Line wire and find land for substations. Will there ever be enough demand to justify the expense? lol no.
You can make a design drawing for AC Line wire and find land for substations. Will there ever be enough demand to justify the expense? lol no.
November 21, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Also, the delineation as I see it isn't just about literal feasibility (i.e. "can this be built") it's also budgetary and BCA-influenced.
You can make a design drawing for AC Line wire and find land for substations. Will there ever be enough demand to justify the expense? lol no.
You can make a design drawing for AC Line wire and find land for substations. Will there ever be enough demand to justify the expense? lol no.
I was deliberate in using "full system"; that includes the Atlantic City Line and Southern Tier.
If we were talking about a general expansion then I'd have probably put it in "Mega/Possible".
If we were talking about a general expansion then I'd have probably put it in "Mega/Possible".
November 21, 2025 at 2:43 PM
I was deliberate in using "full system"; that includes the Atlantic City Line and Southern Tier.
If we were talking about a general expansion then I'd have probably put it in "Mega/Possible".
If we were talking about a general expansion then I'd have probably put it in "Mega/Possible".
The amazing thing is in this case, NJT *already* did the full environmental review in the mid-2000’s and then it actually managed to expire because Christie budget cuts and subsequent recovery meant there was just an entire decade where “building new stuff” was off the table.
November 20, 2025 at 3:26 PM
The amazing thing is in this case, NJT *already* did the full environmental review in the mid-2000’s and then it actually managed to expire because Christie budget cuts and subsequent recovery meant there was just an entire decade where “building new stuff” was off the table.
We don't need an exact number - it could be "D+8" or "D+14" because either is overwhelmingly bad for the GOP.
November 20, 2025 at 1:41 AM
We don't need an exact number - it could be "D+8" or "D+14" because either is overwhelmingly bad for the GOP.
This not so quantitative statement is definitely supported by recent results.
In NJ for instance, forgetting the Governor result, NJ Democrats picked up a number of seats that have been held by the GOP for decades, in areas of the state Democrats almost never are even competitive.
In NJ for instance, forgetting the Governor result, NJ Democrats picked up a number of seats that have been held by the GOP for decades, in areas of the state Democrats almost never are even competitive.
November 20, 2025 at 1:41 AM
This not so quantitative statement is definitely supported by recent results.
In NJ for instance, forgetting the Governor result, NJ Democrats picked up a number of seats that have been held by the GOP for decades, in areas of the state Democrats almost never are even competitive.
In NJ for instance, forgetting the Governor result, NJ Democrats picked up a number of seats that have been held by the GOP for decades, in areas of the state Democrats almost never are even competitive.
Let's cut through the numbers: +7, +9, +11, and even +14 are all if not the same then at least similar in implications: Democrats can compete in virtually any election that isn't in a ruby red constituency (idk Missisippi?) Very few elections are "safe" GOP.
November 20, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Let's cut through the numbers: +7, +9, +11, and even +14 are all if not the same then at least similar in implications: Democrats can compete in virtually any election that isn't in a ruby red constituency (idk Missisippi?) Very few elections are "safe" GOP.
A lot of the polls for NJ '25 were sampled to try and closely replicate the '24 electorate. That they were off by 10% is notable.
Also 2024 being an "R+1" environment describes the nat'l result, but applying that to an NJ state election is apples and oranges. Trump massively overperformed in NJ.
Also 2024 being an "R+1" environment describes the nat'l result, but applying that to an NJ state election is apples and oranges. Trump massively overperformed in NJ.
November 19, 2025 at 11:43 PM
A lot of the polls for NJ '25 were sampled to try and closely replicate the '24 electorate. That they were off by 10% is notable.
Also 2024 being an "R+1" environment describes the nat'l result, but applying that to an NJ state election is apples and oranges. Trump massively overperformed in NJ.
Also 2024 being an "R+1" environment describes the nat'l result, but applying that to an NJ state election is apples and oranges. Trump massively overperformed in NJ.
New Jersey Gov election literally supports D+10 or D+11. Polling averages all had Sherrill at +3 or +4. Actual margin was Sherrill +14.
Maybe it's "only" D+9. That is still beyond apocalyptic for the GOP.
Maybe it's "only" D+9. That is still beyond apocalyptic for the GOP.
November 19, 2025 at 11:35 PM
New Jersey Gov election literally supports D+10 or D+11. Polling averages all had Sherrill at +3 or +4. Actual margin was Sherrill +14.
Maybe it's "only" D+9. That is still beyond apocalyptic for the GOP.
Maybe it's "only" D+9. That is still beyond apocalyptic for the GOP.
And then compound this with the fact that housing availability dictates where people move; we have no idea if people move to urban vs suburban areas because that’s where they most want to be or if that’s where they actually *can* get a home.
November 19, 2025 at 2:00 PM
And then compound this with the fact that housing availability dictates where people move; we have no idea if people move to urban vs suburban areas because that’s where they most want to be or if that’s where they actually *can* get a home.
It’s really hard to measure because there aren’t even really clear/consistent ways of delineating urban versus suburban vs. non-urban in the first place.
Yes, some definitions have been thrown out, but it’s not like there’s a universally accepted definition.
Yes, some definitions have been thrown out, but it’s not like there’s a universally accepted definition.
November 19, 2025 at 1:55 PM
It’s really hard to measure because there aren’t even really clear/consistent ways of delineating urban versus suburban vs. non-urban in the first place.
Yes, some definitions have been thrown out, but it’s not like there’s a universally accepted definition.
Yes, some definitions have been thrown out, but it’s not like there’s a universally accepted definition.
Thom Tillis and, more significantly, Joni Ernst already pulled the ripcord last year.
I could see the floodgates opening later on, but this stuff has already started.
I could see the floodgates opening later on, but this stuff has already started.
November 19, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Thom Tillis and, more significantly, Joni Ernst already pulled the ripcord last year.
I could see the floodgates opening later on, but this stuff has already started.
I could see the floodgates opening later on, but this stuff has already started.