Andrea Basso
@a4xrbj1.bsky.social
#Lakers and #KobeBryant fan 4 life, #ElonQ, boycott X, pro EV’s, fight #ClimateChange, dog owner, #MEGA = Make Elon Go Away.
/27
In our scenario, he’d only increase his stake in Tesla by 1% when his goal is a rise of over 10 points. Musk would have a strong incentive to stay the full 10 years for the haul waiting at the end. But an unhappy Musk might mean a less-than-fully-motivated Musk.
In our scenario, he’d only increase his stake in Tesla by 1% when his goal is a rise of over 10 points. Musk would have a strong incentive to stay the full 10 years for the haul waiting at the end. But an unhappy Musk might mean a less-than-fully-motivated Musk.
November 29, 2025 at 2:03 PM
/27
In our scenario, he’d only increase his stake in Tesla by 1% when his goal is a rise of over 10 points. Musk would have a strong incentive to stay the full 10 years for the haul waiting at the end. But an unhappy Musk might mean a less-than-fully-motivated Musk.
In our scenario, he’d only increase his stake in Tesla by 1% when his goal is a rise of over 10 points. Musk would have a strong incentive to stay the full 10 years for the haul waiting at the end. But an unhappy Musk might mean a less-than-fully-motivated Musk.
/26
Say Tesla’s shares do even worse and end the 10-year grant period at a market cap of $1.8 trillion. Shareholders would get returns barely beating inflation, and Musk would still get a payout of $727 million.
Say Tesla’s shares do even worse and end the 10-year grant period at a market cap of $1.8 trillion. Shareholders would get returns barely beating inflation, and Musk would still get a payout of $727 million.
November 29, 2025 at 2:02 PM
/26
Say Tesla’s shares do even worse and end the 10-year grant period at a market cap of $1.8 trillion. Shareholders would get returns barely beating inflation, and Musk would still get a payout of $727 million.
Say Tesla’s shares do even worse and end the 10-year grant period at a market cap of $1.8 trillion. Shareholders would get returns barely beating inflation, and Musk would still get a payout of $727 million.
/25
What about the shareholders? Taking the shares from $334 to $585 in 10 years represents paltry gains of just 5.9% annually. That’s a lousy deal for Tesla’s shareholders. They’re suffering at the same time Musk is en route to getting a windfall of nearly $900 million.
What about the shareholders? Taking the shares from $334 to $585 in 10 years represents paltry gains of just 5.9% annually. That’s a lousy deal for Tesla’s shareholders. They’re suffering at the same time Musk is en route to getting a windfall of nearly $900 million.
November 29, 2025 at 2:02 PM
/25
What about the shareholders? Taking the shares from $334 to $585 in 10 years represents paltry gains of just 5.9% annually. That’s a lousy deal for Tesla’s shareholders. They’re suffering at the same time Musk is en route to getting a windfall of nearly $900 million.
What about the shareholders? Taking the shares from $334 to $585 in 10 years represents paltry gains of just 5.9% annually. That’s a lousy deal for Tesla’s shareholders. They’re suffering at the same time Musk is en route to getting a windfall of nearly $900 million.
/24
By comparison, in their respective fiscal years, Sundar Pichai earned $10.7 million, Mark Zuckerberg $27.2 million, Jensen Huang $34 million, Jamie Dimon $39 million, Andy Jassy $40 million, Tim Cook $75 million, and Satya Nadella $79 million.
By comparison, in their respective fiscal years, Sundar Pichai earned $10.7 million, Mark Zuckerberg $27.2 million, Jensen Huang $34 million, Jamie Dimon $39 million, Andy Jassy $40 million, Tim Cook $75 million, and Satya Nadella $79 million.
November 29, 2025 at 2:01 PM
/24
By comparison, in their respective fiscal years, Sundar Pichai earned $10.7 million, Mark Zuckerberg $27.2 million, Jensen Huang $34 million, Jamie Dimon $39 million, Andy Jassy $40 million, Tim Cook $75 million, and Satya Nadella $79 million.
By comparison, in their respective fiscal years, Sundar Pichai earned $10.7 million, Mark Zuckerberg $27.2 million, Jensen Huang $34 million, Jamie Dimon $39 million, Andy Jassy $40 million, Tim Cook $75 million, and Satya Nadella $79 million.
/23
That would be all of his compensation for 10 years of running Tesla. But it’s still big, averaging almost $90 million a year.
That would be all of his compensation for 10 years of running Tesla. But it’s still big, averaging almost $90 million a year.
November 29, 2025 at 2:01 PM
/23
That would be all of his compensation for 10 years of running Tesla. But it’s still big, averaging almost $90 million a year.
That would be all of his compensation for 10 years of running Tesla. But it’s still big, averaging almost $90 million a year.
/22
He’d receive the first tranche of shares at a “net” of $251 per share, that’s the $585 at the end of the 10-year vesting period minus the effective “strike” price of $334 (the price when the program was conceived in September). Hence, he’d pocket $8.86 billion in one stroke.
He’d receive the first tranche of shares at a “net” of $251 per share, that’s the $585 at the end of the 10-year vesting period minus the effective “strike” price of $334 (the price when the program was conceived in September). Hence, he’d pocket $8.86 billion in one stroke.
November 29, 2025 at 2:01 PM
/22
He’d receive the first tranche of shares at a “net” of $251 per share, that’s the $585 at the end of the 10-year vesting period minus the effective “strike” price of $334 (the price when the program was conceived in September). Hence, he’d pocket $8.86 billion in one stroke.
He’d receive the first tranche of shares at a “net” of $251 per share, that’s the $585 at the end of the 10-year vesting period minus the effective “strike” price of $334 (the price when the program was conceived in September). Hence, he’d pocket $8.86 billion in one stroke.
/21
So let’s say Musk is able to notch the $2 trillion target in six years. Then the shares bounce around. In other words, Musk could talk up the shares, then see them pretty much go sideways for years, and they could even head below the price that unlocked the award.
So let’s say Musk is able to notch the $2 trillion target in six years. Then the shares bounce around. In other words, Musk could talk up the shares, then see them pretty much go sideways for years, and they could even head below the price that unlocked the award.
November 29, 2025 at 1:59 PM
/21
So let’s say Musk is able to notch the $2 trillion target in six years. Then the shares bounce around. In other words, Musk could talk up the shares, then see them pretty much go sideways for years, and they could even head below the price that unlocked the award.
So let’s say Musk is able to notch the $2 trillion target in six years. Then the shares bounce around. In other words, Musk could talk up the shares, then see them pretty much go sideways for years, and they could even head below the price that unlocked the award.
/20
Here’s the second softball pitched by the board. If Musk manages to get the market cap to $2 trillion or above, and keep it there for six months, he’s turned that key definitively. No going back. No matter what happens to the share price after that, he’s got that bogey in his pocket.
Here’s the second softball pitched by the board. If Musk manages to get the market cap to $2 trillion or above, and keep it there for six months, he’s turned that key definitively. No going back. No matter what happens to the share price after that, he’s got that bogey in his pocket.
November 29, 2025 at 1:58 PM
/20
Here’s the second softball pitched by the board. If Musk manages to get the market cap to $2 trillion or above, and keep it there for six months, he’s turned that key definitively. No going back. No matter what happens to the share price after that, he’s got that bogey in his pocket.
Here’s the second softball pitched by the board. If Musk manages to get the market cap to $2 trillion or above, and keep it there for six months, he’s turned that key definitively. No going back. No matter what happens to the share price after that, he’s got that bogey in his pocket.
/19
If it averages 2 million cars a year, Tesla would achieve the 12 million figure by the end of year six. Hence, Musk would clinch an operational target by achieving only a minimal annual increase in Tesla’s vehicle sales.
If it averages 2 million cars a year, Tesla would achieve the 12 million figure by the end of year six. Hence, Musk would clinch an operational target by achieving only a minimal annual increase in Tesla’s vehicle sales.
November 29, 2025 at 1:58 PM
/19
If it averages 2 million cars a year, Tesla would achieve the 12 million figure by the end of year six. Hence, Musk would clinch an operational target by achieving only a minimal annual increase in Tesla’s vehicle sales.
If it averages 2 million cars a year, Tesla would achieve the 12 million figure by the end of year six. Hence, Musk would clinch an operational target by achieving only a minimal annual increase in Tesla’s vehicle sales.
/18
Hence, since Tesla has already sold 8 million cars, it only has to deliver 12 million for Musk to capture that operational hurdle. It’s an incredibly weak requirement, and one of the two wrinkles that aids Musk and skewers shareholders.
Hence, since Tesla has already sold 8 million cars, it only has to deliver 12 million for Musk to capture that operational hurdle. It’s an incredibly weak requirement, and one of the two wrinkles that aids Musk and skewers shareholders.
November 29, 2025 at 1:58 PM
/18
Hence, since Tesla has already sold 8 million cars, it only has to deliver 12 million for Musk to capture that operational hurdle. It’s an incredibly weak requirement, and one of the two wrinkles that aids Musk and skewers shareholders.
Hence, since Tesla has already sold 8 million cars, it only has to deliver 12 million for Musk to capture that operational hurdle. It’s an incredibly weak requirement, and one of the two wrinkles that aids Musk and skewers shareholders.
/17
“20 Million Tesla Vehicles Delivered: Expanding Tesla’s vehicle fleet from 8 million EVs, which it has currently, to 20 million will further grow its adjusted Ebitda, allowing Tesla to reinvest in its other up-and-coming product lines.”
“20 Million Tesla Vehicles Delivered: Expanding Tesla’s vehicle fleet from 8 million EVs, which it has currently, to 20 million will further grow its adjusted Ebitda, allowing Tesla to reinvest in its other up-and-coming product lines.”
November 29, 2025 at 1:57 PM
/17
“20 Million Tesla Vehicles Delivered: Expanding Tesla’s vehicle fleet from 8 million EVs, which it has currently, to 20 million will further grow its adjusted Ebitda, allowing Tesla to reinvest in its other up-and-coming product lines.”
“20 Million Tesla Vehicles Delivered: Expanding Tesla’s vehicle fleet from 8 million EVs, which it has currently, to 20 million will further grow its adjusted Ebitda, allowing Tesla to reinvest in its other up-and-coming product lines.”
/16
The operational part that’s reachable is the goal of selling 20 million vehicles. This provision invites close scrutiny. According to the plan’s requirements contained in an SEC filing dated Sept. 5, this target doesn’t start from zero at the time the package takes effect.
The operational part that’s reachable is the goal of selling 20 million vehicles. This provision invites close scrutiny. According to the plan’s requirements contained in an SEC filing dated Sept. 5, this target doesn’t start from zero at the time the package takes effect.
November 29, 2025 at 1:57 PM
/16
The operational part that’s reachable is the goal of selling 20 million vehicles. This provision invites close scrutiny. According to the plan’s requirements contained in an SEC filing dated Sept. 5, this target doesn’t start from zero at the time the package takes effect.
The operational part that’s reachable is the goal of selling 20 million vehicles. This provision invites close scrutiny. According to the plan’s requirements contained in an SEC filing dated Sept. 5, this target doesn’t start from zero at the time the package takes effect.
/15
It could easily happen. Musk has proved a master at sending the shares skyward by promising great things in robotaxis, full self-driving (FSD), and robots, even though he hasn’t yet significantly commercialized any of them.
It could easily happen. Musk has proved a master at sending the shares skyward by promising great things in robotaxis, full self-driving (FSD), and robots, even though he hasn’t yet significantly commercialized any of them.
November 29, 2025 at 1:56 PM
/15
It could easily happen. Musk has proved a master at sending the shares skyward by promising great things in robotaxis, full self-driving (FSD), and robots, even though he hasn’t yet significantly commercialized any of them.
It could easily happen. Musk has proved a master at sending the shares skyward by promising great things in robotaxis, full self-driving (FSD), and robots, even though he hasn’t yet significantly commercialized any of them.
/14
So if Musk can boost the shares another 48% to $2 trillion, he’ll check the initial box for market cap. The rules require that the shares average $2 trillion or above for six months, and separately for the last 30 days, to hit the target.
So if Musk can boost the shares another 48% to $2 trillion, he’ll check the initial box for market cap. The rules require that the shares average $2 trillion or above for six months, and separately for the last 30 days, to hit the target.
November 29, 2025 at 1:56 PM
/14
So if Musk can boost the shares another 48% to $2 trillion, he’ll check the initial box for market cap. The rules require that the shares average $2 trillion or above for six months, and separately for the last 30 days, to hit the target.
So if Musk can boost the shares another 48% to $2 trillion, he’ll check the initial box for market cap. The rules require that the shares average $2 trillion or above for six months, and separately for the last 30 days, to hit the target.
/13
On the first item, the surge in Tesla stock since the board unveiled the program in early September has already pushed the price from $334 to $408, lifting its valuation from $1.12 trillion to $1.35 trillion—and the package gives Musk credit for that increase.
On the first item, the surge in Tesla stock since the board unveiled the program in early September has already pushed the price from $334 to $408, lifting its valuation from $1.12 trillion to $1.35 trillion—and the package gives Musk credit for that increase.
November 29, 2025 at 1:55 PM
/13
On the first item, the surge in Tesla stock since the board unveiled the program in early September has already pushed the price from $334 to $408, lifting its valuation from $1.12 trillion to $1.35 trillion—and the package gives Musk credit for that increase.
On the first item, the surge in Tesla stock since the board unveiled the program in early September has already pushed the price from $334 to $408, lifting its valuation from $1.12 trillion to $1.35 trillion—and the package gives Musk credit for that increase.
/12
He stands a decent chance of scoring both the lowest valuation number of $2 trillion, and the least challenging operational tier—selling a cumulative total of 20 million vehicles, starting from the time of the grant.
He stands a decent chance of scoring both the lowest valuation number of $2 trillion, and the least challenging operational tier—selling a cumulative total of 20 million vehicles, starting from the time of the grant.
November 29, 2025 at 1:55 PM
/12
He stands a decent chance of scoring both the lowest valuation number of $2 trillion, and the least challenging operational tier—selling a cumulative total of 20 million vehicles, starting from the time of the grant.
He stands a decent chance of scoring both the lowest valuation number of $2 trillion, and the least challenging operational tier—selling a cumulative total of 20 million vehicles, starting from the time of the grant.
/11
Hitting the second highest valuation mark of $2.5 trillion alone would require an 85% jump in its stock price.
Huge progress that’s not happening is already baked into the valuation, making the chances of huge gains from here remote, though a Musk-orchestrated, surge can always happen.
Hitting the second highest valuation mark of $2.5 trillion alone would require an 85% jump in its stock price.
Huge progress that’s not happening is already baked into the valuation, making the chances of huge gains from here remote, though a Musk-orchestrated, surge can always happen.
November 29, 2025 at 1:54 PM
/11
Hitting the second highest valuation mark of $2.5 trillion alone would require an 85% jump in its stock price.
Huge progress that’s not happening is already baked into the valuation, making the chances of huge gains from here remote, though a Musk-orchestrated, surge can always happen.
Hitting the second highest valuation mark of $2.5 trillion alone would require an 85% jump in its stock price.
Huge progress that’s not happening is already baked into the valuation, making the chances of huge gains from here remote, though a Musk-orchestrated, surge can always happen.
/10
Tesla’s stock already appears vastly overpriced. Its current multiple, based on “core” earnings from its auto and battery businesses of just $3.6 billion in the past four quarters, excluding such items as sales of regulatory credits, towers at 375.
Tesla’s stock already appears vastly overpriced. Its current multiple, based on “core” earnings from its auto and battery businesses of just $3.6 billion in the past four quarters, excluding such items as sales of regulatory credits, towers at 375.
November 29, 2025 at 1:53 PM
/10
Tesla’s stock already appears vastly overpriced. Its current multiple, based on “core” earnings from its auto and battery businesses of just $3.6 billion in the past four quarters, excluding such items as sales of regulatory credits, towers at 375.
Tesla’s stock already appears vastly overpriced. Its current multiple, based on “core” earnings from its auto and battery businesses of just $3.6 billion in the past four quarters, excluding such items as sales of regulatory credits, towers at 375.
/9
Reversing that downward trend to reach even the minimum profitability mandated in the operational milestones can only happen if its unproven products prove wildly successful in highly competitive, and capital-intensive sectors.
Reversing that downward trend to reach even the minimum profitability mandated in the operational milestones can only happen if its unproven products prove wildly successful in highly competitive, and capital-intensive sectors.
November 29, 2025 at 1:53 PM
/9
Reversing that downward trend to reach even the minimum profitability mandated in the operational milestones can only happen if its unproven products prove wildly successful in highly competitive, and capital-intensive sectors.
Reversing that downward trend to reach even the minimum profitability mandated in the operational milestones can only happen if its unproven products prove wildly successful in highly competitive, and capital-intensive sectors.
/8
And the easiest Ebitda level stands at a towering $50 billion. Ringing the bell would likely require multiplying its current Ebitda run rate around fivefold. Yet Tesla’s now going in the wrong direction by booking puny and declining profits.
And the easiest Ebitda level stands at a towering $50 billion. Ringing the bell would likely require multiplying its current Ebitda run rate around fivefold. Yet Tesla’s now going in the wrong direction by booking puny and declining profits.
November 29, 2025 at 1:52 PM
/8
And the easiest Ebitda level stands at a towering $50 billion. Ringing the bell would likely require multiplying its current Ebitda run rate around fivefold. Yet Tesla’s now going in the wrong direction by booking puny and declining profits.
And the easiest Ebitda level stands at a towering $50 billion. Ringing the bell would likely require multiplying its current Ebitda run rate around fivefold. Yet Tesla’s now going in the wrong direction by booking puny and declining profits.
/7
For example, the robotaxi target requires achieving an active fleet of 1 million. Today, Tesla offers only an extremely limited pilot plan in Austin, and Waymo, the industry’s largest player, has only 2,000 of the vehicles on the road.
For example, the robotaxi target requires achieving an active fleet of 1 million. Today, Tesla offers only an extremely limited pilot plan in Austin, and Waymo, the industry’s largest player, has only 2,000 of the vehicles on the road.
November 29, 2025 at 1:52 PM
/7
For example, the robotaxi target requires achieving an active fleet of 1 million. Today, Tesla offers only an extremely limited pilot plan in Austin, and Waymo, the industry’s largest player, has only 2,000 of the vehicles on the road.
For example, the robotaxi target requires achieving an active fleet of 1 million. Today, Tesla offers only an extremely limited pilot plan in Austin, and Waymo, the industry’s largest player, has only 2,000 of the vehicles on the road.
/6
The “earned share” tranches have two vesting periods: early 2033 for those achieved in the first five years, and late 2035, or at the end of the decade-long program, for the ones reached in years 6 through 10.
The “earned share” tranches have two vesting periods: early 2033 for those achieved in the first five years, and late 2035, or at the end of the decade-long program, for the ones reached in years 6 through 10.
November 29, 2025 at 1:51 PM
/6
The “earned share” tranches have two vesting periods: early 2033 for those achieved in the first five years, and late 2035, or at the end of the decade-long program, for the ones reached in years 6 through 10.
The “earned share” tranches have two vesting periods: early 2033 for those achieved in the first five years, and late 2035, or at the end of the decade-long program, for the ones reached in years 6 through 10.
/5
Put simply, anytime Musk hits a new valuation goal, and also captures any one of the dozen operational targets in any order, he receives 35.312 million shares in Tesla restricted stock, adding roughly 1% to his current stake of almost 16%.
Put simply, anytime Musk hits a new valuation goal, and also captures any one of the dozen operational targets in any order, he receives 35.312 million shares in Tesla restricted stock, adding roughly 1% to his current stake of almost 16%.
November 29, 2025 at 1:50 PM
/5
Put simply, anytime Musk hits a new valuation goal, and also captures any one of the dozen operational targets in any order, he receives 35.312 million shares in Tesla restricted stock, adding roughly 1% to his current stake of almost 16%.
Put simply, anytime Musk hits a new valuation goal, and also captures any one of the dozen operational targets in any order, he receives 35.312 million shares in Tesla restricted stock, adding roughly 1% to his current stake of almost 16%.
/4
It’s the safety deposit model: You need two keys to open the box. The market cap triggers start at $2 trillion and ascend by increments of $500 billion to the summit of $8.5 trillion, a number that’s 70% bigger than the $5 trillion that Nvidia recently notched.
It’s the safety deposit model: You need two keys to open the box. The market cap triggers start at $2 trillion and ascend by increments of $500 billion to the summit of $8.5 trillion, a number that’s 70% bigger than the $5 trillion that Nvidia recently notched.
November 29, 2025 at 1:50 PM
/4
It’s the safety deposit model: You need two keys to open the box. The market cap triggers start at $2 trillion and ascend by increments of $500 billion to the summit of $8.5 trillion, a number that’s 70% bigger than the $5 trillion that Nvidia recently notched.
It’s the safety deposit model: You need two keys to open the box. The market cap triggers start at $2 trillion and ascend by increments of $500 billion to the summit of $8.5 trillion, a number that’s 70% bigger than the $5 trillion that Nvidia recently notched.
/3
The reason the epic scheme risks backfiring: It contains two loopholes that enable Musk to fare handsomely by doing something he’s great at, hyping the stock via making big promises, then delivering just enough on the basic business end to clinch a rich reward.
The reason the epic scheme risks backfiring: It contains two loopholes that enable Musk to fare handsomely by doing something he’s great at, hyping the stock via making big promises, then delivering just enough on the basic business end to clinch a rich reward.
November 29, 2025 at 1:49 PM
/3
The reason the epic scheme risks backfiring: It contains two loopholes that enable Musk to fare handsomely by doing something he’s great at, hyping the stock via making big promises, then delivering just enough on the basic business end to clinch a rich reward.
The reason the epic scheme risks backfiring: It contains two loopholes that enable Musk to fare handsomely by doing something he’s great at, hyping the stock via making big promises, then delivering just enough on the basic business end to clinch a rich reward.