Author | Lightnews

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · Aug 25

Only three rounds left at #SinquefieldCup 2025! With 6 points likely enough to win, #FabianoCaruana is sitting comfortably on top, holding a 50% chance to win outright and a 27% chance to tie for first.

Follow the excitement and see more detailed stats on the StaChesstics website!

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · Jun 1

Who will win Norway Chess 2025?

#GukeshD
#NorwayChess
📸: (Cropped from original)
Stefan64
Frans Peeters

1

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 16

After round 5, our AI model predicted that 6 points would be needed for sole victory and that's exactly what happened.
Not only is this kind of analysis insightful for fans, but players can also benefit from it and adjust their strategy based on the predicted score cutoffs.
#GrandChessTour
#chess

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 14

Congratulations to #ZhuJiner, the first player to secure her ticket to the 2026 Candidates with a 100% qualification chance! 🎉 A phenomenal run!

Anna Muzychuk can boost her odds to 69% with a win tomorrow using White. She’d also need Zhu to not win with Black.
#chess
#fidewomengrandprix

3

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 14

Less than an hour to go before Round 7 of the Superbet Chess Classic Romania begins.

The key match is between two co-leaders, #AlirezaFirouzja and #Praggnanandhaa, and we look at how this game could impact the tournament winning chances for either of them.

#GrandChessTour

2

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 14

Candidates 2026 Spot Nearly Secured for Zhu!
With only two rounds to go, #ZhuJiner is on fire! five wins in a row! A very exciting player, and we’re (most likely) lucky to see her in action at Candidates 2026.
#FIDEWomenGrandPrix #WomenInChess

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 14

Candidates 2026 Spot Nearly Secured for Zhu!
With only two rounds to go, #ZhuJiner is on fire! five wins in a row! A very exciting player, and we’re (most likely) lucky to see her in action at Candidates 2026.
#FIDEWomenGrandPrix #WomenInChess

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 13

📸: Eldar Azimov (Cropped from original)

1

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 13

Visit the StaChesstics tournament page for more details:
stachesstics.com/tournaments/...

StaChesstics – AI-Powered Chess Predictions & Stats

Get real-time chess insights, tournament odds, and advanced player analytics. Free & AI-driven.

stachesstics.com

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 13

Key game of Round 6: Alireza (White) vs Gukesh (Black).
A clash between the defending GCT champ and the world champ, both in must-win mode to stay alive.

A win could boost Alireza’s chances to nearly 27%.
Does #Gukesh risk it with Black or play solid to provoke Firouzja?
#GrandChessTour #Chess

2 2

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 13

Game theory is now playing an important part. Not only do they need a strategy with White, but how they provoke with Black also matters. Take Alireza Firouzja, historically, he risks it all with either color at this point. So, what should an opponent, also in a must-win spot, do?
#chess

1

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 13

Round 6 of the #GrandChessTour Superbet Classic Romania starts in a few hours! Our simulations at StaChesstics show that in 70% of cases, the sole winner finishes with 6 points.

At this stage, there's no time to play it safe. With two White games left for each player, it’s a MUST-WIN with White

1 1

Reposted by StaChesstics

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 9

We ran 10 million simulations. Here’s what the numbers say:

#FIDEWomenGrandPrix #WomenInChess
📸:
Eldar Azimov (Cropped from original)
Ekaterina Vasilchenko (Cropped from original)
Stefan64 (Cropped from original)
Tatarstan ru (Cropped from original)

#chess

1 1 2

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 9

Full article on StaChesstics:

stachesstics.com/post/womensg...

StaChesstics – AI-Powered Chess Predictions & Stats

Get real-time chess insights, tournament odds, and advanced player analytics. Free & AI-driven.

stachesstics.com

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 9

Aleksandra Goryachkina, who seemed qualified at the beginning of the event and was on the brink of qualification now sits with a 75% chance.
Anna Muzychuk, Zhu Jiner and Tan Zhongyi are locked in a three-way fight and things don’t look great for Tan. Her chances are fading.

1

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 9

We ran 10 million simulations. Here’s what the numbers say:

#FIDEWomenGrandPrix #WomenInChess
📸:
Eldar Azimov (Cropped from original)
Ekaterina Vasilchenko (Cropped from original)
Stefan64 (Cropped from original)
Tatarstan ru (Cropped from original)

#chess

1 1 2

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 9

FIDE Women’s Grand Prix: Who will qualify for the Candidates? 🎯
Current chances after Round 4 by StaChesstics AI:

Anna Muzychuk: 73.7%
Goryachkina: 75%
Zhu Jiner: 44.5%
Tan Zhongyi: 4.6%
Humpy Koneru: 2.3%

#WomenInChess
#FIDEWomensGrandPrix

1

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 6

Tan’s extra Black game gives her the edge if scores are tied. This pattern repeats across the field.

🤔 Is it fair to use number of Black games as the primary tiebreak in single round-robins? If not, what would you choose?
• Head-to-head
• Sonneborn-Berger
• Most wins
• Performance rating

1

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · May 6

🚨 The #FIDEWomenGrandPrix in Austria is about to start!
We’ve run 5 million simulations with our 88 %-accurate StaChesstics model:

🏆 #TanZhongyi has a higher chance to win than #ZhuJiner—even though Zhu’s projected points are higher!

Why? The first tiebreak is number of Black games...

1

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · Apr 30

When they say it's not over yet!
#grandchesstour #chess

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · Apr 29

Absolute domination by Fedoseev with 8/9 on Day 1 Blitz.
Points: 8/9
Performance Rating: 3072
Winning chances: 94.8%
Overall points: 19/27
Expected Score: 23.57
Based on others' expected scores, he probably needs ~4 more points to win it.
📸: Frans Peeters
#Chess
#GrandChessTour

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · Apr 28

📊 Full projections include Firouzja, Aravindh, Aronian, and more:
stachesstics.com/tournaments/...

#GrandChessTour

StaChesstics – AI-Powered Chess Predictions & Stats

Get real-time chess insights, tournament odds, and advanced player analytics. Free & AI-driven.

stachesstics.com

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · Apr 28

#Fedoseev remains solid in the standings but will need a powerful performance in the Blitz portion to challenge for the top spot.
📸: Frans Peeters (Cropped from the original)

1

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · Apr 28

GM R Praggnanandhaa

8.22% chance to win

He's more than capable of delivering an extraordinary result, as he's proven on many occasions.

#Praggnanandhaa
📷: Frans Peeters (Cropped from original)

1

StaChesstics @stachesstics.bsky.social · Apr 28

🥈 GM Aravindh Chithambaram (2550)

17.02% chance to win
5.01% chance to share first

A true dark horse on the rise! His blitz rating doesn’t tell the full story, as he’s played mostly national events. Can Aravindh keep surprising the field at Superbet Poland Rapid & Blitz? #AravindhChithambaram

1