Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social
oil market researcher
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
Pinned
🚨 NEW POST 🚨
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
Preparing the house for a holiday party means locking in with an audiobook and purging the couch of whatever it is that children do to couches.
November 29, 2025 at 1:14 AM
Preparing the house for a holiday party means locking in with an audiobook and purging the couch of whatever it is that children do to couches.
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices gained slightly on the week but ended the month lower
🇨🇦 and Ottawa and Alberta finally signed the “Grand Bargain” MOU on which the Canadian oil and gas industry has been waiting.
Summary below, link in reply.
Crude prices gained slightly on the week but ended the month lower
🇨🇦 and Ottawa and Alberta finally signed the “Grand Bargain” MOU on which the Canadian oil and gas industry has been waiting.
Summary below, link in reply.
November 28, 2025 at 9:18 PM
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices gained slightly on the week but ended the month lower
🇨🇦 and Ottawa and Alberta finally signed the “Grand Bargain” MOU on which the Canadian oil and gas industry has been waiting.
Summary below, link in reply.
Crude prices gained slightly on the week but ended the month lower
🇨🇦 and Ottawa and Alberta finally signed the “Grand Bargain” MOU on which the Canadian oil and gas industry has been waiting.
Summary below, link in reply.
Video is up!
Come for the frenetic hand-talking 🤗, stay for the nuanced insights on yesterday's Canada-Alberta MOU and what it really means for the future of Western Canada oil pipeline capacity.
Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAOF...
Come for the frenetic hand-talking 🤗, stay for the nuanced insights on yesterday's Canada-Alberta MOU and what it really means for the future of Western Canada oil pipeline capacity.
Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAOF...
November 28, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Video is up!
Come for the frenetic hand-talking 🤗, stay for the nuanced insights on yesterday's Canada-Alberta MOU and what it really means for the future of Western Canada oil pipeline capacity.
Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAOF...
Come for the frenetic hand-talking 🤗, stay for the nuanced insights on yesterday's Canada-Alberta MOU and what it really means for the future of Western Canada oil pipeline capacity.
Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAOF...
I hereby declare that we call it the "MOU Pipeline" (AKA MOUP, AKA MOOP) until we get a formal name.
two men are standing next to each other one is holding a camera and the other is wearing a suit
ALT: two men are standing next to each other one is holding a camera and the other is wearing a suit
media.tenor.com
November 28, 2025 at 3:41 PM
I hereby declare that we call it the "MOU Pipeline" (AKA MOUP, AKA MOOP) until we get a formal name.
Heartily endorse this from @javierblas.bsky.social's latest column.
OPEC is at its best when it commands the credibility of the market, and I don't know anyone serious who actually fully believes the current OPEC-published production figures.
That's not great, and OPEC needs to fix it.
OPEC is at its best when it commands the credibility of the market, and I don't know anyone serious who actually fully believes the current OPEC-published production figures.
That's not great, and OPEC needs to fix it.
November 28, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Heartily endorse this from @javierblas.bsky.social's latest column.
OPEC is at its best when it commands the credibility of the market, and I don't know anyone serious who actually fully believes the current OPEC-published production figures.
That's not great, and OPEC needs to fix it.
OPEC is at its best when it commands the credibility of the market, and I don't know anyone serious who actually fully believes the current OPEC-published production figures.
That's not great, and OPEC needs to fix it.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
November 28, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Toronto-based oil market analyst calls B.C. Premier’s endless political opposition to constitutionally protected and economically critical cross-province infrastructure a distraction from real leadership.
November 28, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Toronto-based oil market analyst calls B.C. Premier’s endless political opposition to constitutionally protected and economically critical cross-province infrastructure a distraction from real leadership.
🎙️ Had a great time sharing some initial reactions to the Canada-Alberta MOU with @faliceemo.bsky.social and former Alberta Deputy Energy Minister Grant Sprague on the @thehubcanada.bsky.social Alberta Edge podcast.
I’m broadly positive—even if specifically wary.
Details, details
[link in replies]
I’m broadly positive—even if specifically wary.
Details, details
[link in replies]
November 27, 2025 at 10:45 PM
🎙️ Had a great time sharing some initial reactions to the Canada-Alberta MOU with @faliceemo.bsky.social and former Alberta Deputy Energy Minister Grant Sprague on the @thehubcanada.bsky.social Alberta Edge podcast.
I’m broadly positive—even if specifically wary.
Details, details
[link in replies]
I’m broadly positive—even if specifically wary.
Details, details
[link in replies]
I have lingering concerns re: getting this MOU pipeline built.
🇨🇦 But, politically, even if my concerns are eventually realized, in the here and now this has substantially diffused much of the West-East tension and set us on a much more promising and collaborative path as a country.
🇨🇦 But, politically, even if my concerns are eventually realized, in the here and now this has substantially diffused much of the West-East tension and set us on a much more promising and collaborative path as a country.
November 27, 2025 at 10:10 PM
I have lingering concerns re: getting this MOU pipeline built.
🇨🇦 But, politically, even if my concerns are eventually realized, in the here and now this has substantially diffused much of the West-East tension and set us on a much more promising and collaborative path as a country.
🇨🇦 But, politically, even if my concerns are eventually realized, in the here and now this has substantially diffused much of the West-East tension and set us on a much more promising and collaborative path as a country.
Total new Western Canadian pipeline capacity proposals now on the board:
1. Today's MOU committed bitumen pipeline to Pacific (+1000 kbpd)
2. Trans Mountain Optimization (+360 kbpd)
3. Enbridge Mainline Optimization, Phase 1+2 (+400 kbpd)
In total, ~1.75 MMbpd of room to grow
1. Today's MOU committed bitumen pipeline to Pacific (+1000 kbpd)
2. Trans Mountain Optimization (+360 kbpd)
3. Enbridge Mainline Optimization, Phase 1+2 (+400 kbpd)
In total, ~1.75 MMbpd of room to grow
a man in a leather jacket is standing in front of a group of people .
ALT: a man in a leather jacket is standing in front of a group of people .
media.tenor.com
November 27, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Total new Western Canadian pipeline capacity proposals now on the board:
1. Today's MOU committed bitumen pipeline to Pacific (+1000 kbpd)
2. Trans Mountain Optimization (+360 kbpd)
3. Enbridge Mainline Optimization, Phase 1+2 (+400 kbpd)
In total, ~1.75 MMbpd of room to grow
1. Today's MOU committed bitumen pipeline to Pacific (+1000 kbpd)
2. Trans Mountain Optimization (+360 kbpd)
3. Enbridge Mainline Optimization, Phase 1+2 (+400 kbpd)
In total, ~1.75 MMbpd of room to grow
Journalist:
"Is this enough to prevent the departure of Stephen Guilbeault from cabinet?"
Carney:
"It is enough for the Government of Canada"
"Is this enough to prevent the departure of Stephen Guilbeault from cabinet?"
Carney:
"It is enough for the Government of Canada"
a man with a beard and mustache is smiling and looking at the camera .
ALT: a man with a beard and mustache is smiling and looking at the camera .
media.tenor.com
November 27, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Journalist:
"Is this enough to prevent the departure of Stephen Guilbeault from cabinet?"
Carney:
"It is enough for the Government of Canada"
"Is this enough to prevent the departure of Stephen Guilbeault from cabinet?"
Carney:
"It is enough for the Government of Canada"
Ok, now that we have the MOU in hand (and the embargo has cleared) let's go through some of the nitty gritty details.
Still digesting but these are some initial reactions. 🧵
Still digesting but these are some initial reactions. 🧵
November 27, 2025 at 5:57 PM
Ok, now that we have the MOU in hand (and the embargo has cleared) let's go through some of the nitty gritty details.
Still digesting but these are some initial reactions. 🧵
Still digesting but these are some initial reactions. 🧵
November 27, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Smiles all around.
November 27, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Smiles all around.
it's happpppennnnninnnngggg [any minute now...]
November 27, 2025 at 5:04 PM
it's happpppennnnninnnngggg [any minute now...]
“ongoing conversations between Guilbeault and the PM's Office, with the lifelong enviro activist expressing concern about compromises being made on govt’s climate policies to get to a deal with Alberta.
There have been internal concerns that Guilbeault … could resign over this”
There have been internal concerns that Guilbeault … could resign over this”
November 27, 2025 at 12:07 AM
“ongoing conversations between Guilbeault and the PM's Office, with the lifelong enviro activist expressing concern about compromises being made on govt’s climate policies to get to a deal with Alberta.
There have been internal concerns that Guilbeault … could resign over this”
There have been internal concerns that Guilbeault … could resign over this”
Trump on the prospective peace deal.
More or less a Trump-language restatement of the Press Sec Tweet from earlier today.
Progress... details... we'll see.
More or less a Trump-language restatement of the Press Sec Tweet from earlier today.
Progress... details... we'll see.
November 25, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Trump on the prospective peace deal.
More or less a Trump-language restatement of the Press Sec Tweet from earlier today.
Progress... details... we'll see.
More or less a Trump-language restatement of the Press Sec Tweet from earlier today.
Progress... details... we'll see.
🐂 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bullish [Urals] crude prices.
🐻 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bearish [Non-Urals] crude prices.
Hope that helps.
🐻 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bearish [Non-Urals] crude prices.
Hope that helps.
November 25, 2025 at 5:23 PM
🐂 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bullish [Urals] crude prices.
🐻 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bearish [Non-Urals] crude prices.
Hope that helps.
🐻 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bearish [Non-Urals] crude prices.
Hope that helps.
Didn't realized this needed to be said but...
...a Russia-Ukraine peace deal (if signed, which remains a big if!) is, in fact, a bearish development for oil prices
...a Russia-Ukraine peace deal (if signed, which remains a big if!) is, in fact, a bearish development for oil prices
November 25, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Didn't realized this needed to be said but...
...a Russia-Ukraine peace deal (if signed, which remains a big if!) is, in fact, a bearish development for oil prices
...a Russia-Ukraine peace deal (if signed, which remains a big if!) is, in fact, a bearish development for oil prices
Middle distillate crack spreads (white NYMEX diesel, blue ICE gasoil) continue to fall back on this morning's Ukraine deal speculation.
November 25, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Middle distillate crack spreads (white NYMEX diesel, blue ICE gasoil) continue to fall back on this morning's Ukraine deal speculation.
Ukraine peace deal speculation-driven oil price rout still entirely a paper sentiment phenomenon.
Brent crude prompt timespreads, which reflect actual near-term market tightness, have risen through the week and ain't budging yet.
Phys oil not yet buying the deal.
Brent crude prompt timespreads, which reflect actual near-term market tightness, have risen through the week and ain't budging yet.
Phys oil not yet buying the deal.
November 25, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Ukraine peace deal speculation-driven oil price rout still entirely a paper sentiment phenomenon.
Brent crude prompt timespreads, which reflect actual near-term market tightness, have risen through the week and ain't budging yet.
Phys oil not yet buying the deal.
Brent crude prompt timespreads, which reflect actual near-term market tightness, have risen through the week and ain't budging yet.
Phys oil not yet buying the deal.
The bullish crude counterpunch here would come if Trump thought he had finally reached a deal Kyiv could live with and then Moscow walked away again.
That'd make Trump real mad, and a mad Trump would mean more sanctions and a green-er light for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil.
(via FT)
That'd make Trump real mad, and a mad Trump would mean more sanctions and a green-er light for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil.
(via FT)
November 25, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The bullish crude counterpunch here would come if Trump thought he had finally reached a deal Kyiv could live with and then Moscow walked away again.
That'd make Trump real mad, and a mad Trump would mean more sanctions and a green-er light for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil.
(via FT)
That'd make Trump real mad, and a mad Trump would mean more sanctions and a green-er light for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil.
(via FT)
This is just the crude price reaction appetizer.
Already recovering a bit (back at $63.35), and the market will be waiting for 1) confirmation from the Ukrainian side (of course US officials are going to be optimistic about Kyiv accepting terms), and 2) details, details, details
Already recovering a bit (back at $63.35), and the market will be waiting for 1) confirmation from the Ukrainian side (of course US officials are going to be optimistic about Kyiv accepting terms), and 2) details, details, details
** US official says Ukrainian delegation has agreed with US on terms of potential peace deal: ABC
Crude drops sharply, Brent < $62
Crude drops sharply, Brent < $62
November 25, 2025 at 1:12 PM
This is just the crude price reaction appetizer.
Already recovering a bit (back at $63.35), and the market will be waiting for 1) confirmation from the Ukrainian side (of course US officials are going to be optimistic about Kyiv accepting terms), and 2) details, details, details
Already recovering a bit (back at $63.35), and the market will be waiting for 1) confirmation from the Ukrainian side (of course US officials are going to be optimistic about Kyiv accepting terms), and 2) details, details, details