Paul Clist
@paulclist.bsky.social
Development Economist @ UEA, UK
Experiments, Language, Risk, Lying,
Development Aid, Tax
Experiments, Language, Risk, Lying,
Development Aid, Tax
Reposted by Paul Clist
cool confounding and adjustment example by @jofrhwld.bsky.social below. To estimate A –direct–> Y, must adjust for B (and C or D). If you adjust for C, it partly opens collider D, so non-causal path D <– B –> Y is opened. Easy to forget about descendants partly opening parents. Sneaky colliders.
ok, causal inference people: Lets say I have the following DAG. I see the backdoor path through C, so I adjust for C. dagitty says I *also* need to adjust for B, but I'm not sure why since there's a collider along its path?
December 2, 2025 at 7:55 AM
cool confounding and adjustment example by @jofrhwld.bsky.social below. To estimate A –direct–> Y, must adjust for B (and C or D). If you adjust for C, it partly opens collider D, so non-causal path D <– B –> Y is opened. Easy to forget about descendants partly opening parents. Sneaky colliders.
Reposted by Paul Clist
More nonsense from Scientific Reports
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
This article may be many things, but scientific it ain’t
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
This article may be many things, but scientific it ain’t
www.nature.com
November 29, 2025 at 6:22 PM
More nonsense from Scientific Reports
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
This article may be many things, but scientific it ain’t
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
This article may be many things, but scientific it ain’t
Reposted by Paul Clist
Preregistrations without Code do not Prevent P-Hacking: You can increase your chances for a significant finding in the absence of real effects even with correlations and t test despite having preregistered your hypothesis (e.g., simply changing arguments in the functions).
doi.org/10.31222/osf...
doi.org/10.31222/osf...
November 25, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Preregistrations without Code do not Prevent P-Hacking: You can increase your chances for a significant finding in the absence of real effects even with correlations and t test despite having preregistered your hypothesis (e.g., simply changing arguments in the functions).
doi.org/10.31222/osf...
doi.org/10.31222/osf...
Reposted by Paul Clist
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
Reposted by Paul Clist
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
New paper: Triply Robust Panel Estimators (TROP) by @susanathey.bsky.social @guidoimbens.bsky.social Zhaonan Qu @vivianodavide.bsky.social.
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
November 23, 2025 at 10:39 PM
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
Reposted by Paul Clist
I appreciate the WSJ following up on this story, which is already in danger of being one of many forgotten scandals in elite academia.
“There is no world where this makes any sense,” said David Autor, one of the MIT professors who had previously championed his student’s research. www.wsj.com/economy/aida...
An MIT Student Awed Top Economists With His AI Study—Then It All Fell Apart
Aidan Toner-Rodgers shot to academic fame in a field hungry for new insights and revelatory research. But a computer scientist thought something seemed off.
www.wsj.com
November 22, 2025 at 4:29 AM
I appreciate the WSJ following up on this story, which is already in danger of being one of many forgotten scandals in elite academia.
Reposted by Paul Clist
Brexit reduced the UK’s GDP by between 6% and 8%. That is MASSIVE. #ProjectFear #wetoldyouso
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
November 10, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Brexit reduced the UK’s GDP by between 6% and 8%. That is MASSIVE. #ProjectFear #wetoldyouso
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
Reposted by Paul Clist
well said expatriarch.substack.com/p/usaid-is-u...
USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending
Why Rajiv Shah is wrong, wrong, wrong, and kind of insulting
expatriarch.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 12:27 AM
well said expatriarch.substack.com/p/usaid-is-u...
Reposted by Paul Clist
Some good news/
Home Office evaluation of the Refugee Transitions Outcomes Fund - pilot schemes to help employment, housing and integration for newly recognised refugees.
Substantially improved employment outcomes & had positive fiscal impacts.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Home Office evaluation of the Refugee Transitions Outcomes Fund - pilot schemes to help employment, housing and integration for newly recognised refugees.
Substantially improved employment outcomes & had positive fiscal impacts.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
October 20, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Some good news/
Home Office evaluation of the Refugee Transitions Outcomes Fund - pilot schemes to help employment, housing and integration for newly recognised refugees.
Substantially improved employment outcomes & had positive fiscal impacts.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Home Office evaluation of the Refugee Transitions Outcomes Fund - pilot schemes to help employment, housing and integration for newly recognised refugees.
Substantially improved employment outcomes & had positive fiscal impacts.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reposted by Paul Clist
Amazing story in The Times. Reform UK failed to pay VAT to HMRC on its sales (tickets, merchandise). About £400k in all.
Not tax avoidance. Not tax evasion. They just didn't realise when you sell stuff you have to charge VAT.
Not tax avoidance. Not tax evasion. They just didn't realise when you sell stuff you have to charge VAT.
October 20, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Amazing story in The Times. Reform UK failed to pay VAT to HMRC on its sales (tickets, merchandise). About £400k in all.
Not tax avoidance. Not tax evasion. They just didn't realise when you sell stuff you have to charge VAT.
Not tax avoidance. Not tax evasion. They just didn't realise when you sell stuff you have to charge VAT.
Reposted by Paul Clist
You've got to love studies like these: New carbon tax paper out in @aeajournals.bsky.social: Macroeconomics.
The headline: "I find that carbon taxes reduce emissions
as expected but also impair macroeconomic activity."
What to make of this, a quick 🧵
The headline: "I find that carbon taxes reduce emissions
as expected but also impair macroeconomic activity."
What to make of this, a quick 🧵
October 18, 2025 at 3:12 PM
You've got to love studies like these: New carbon tax paper out in @aeajournals.bsky.social: Macroeconomics.
The headline: "I find that carbon taxes reduce emissions
as expected but also impair macroeconomic activity."
What to make of this, a quick 🧵
The headline: "I find that carbon taxes reduce emissions
as expected but also impair macroeconomic activity."
What to make of this, a quick 🧵
Reposted by Paul Clist
Next time an institution tells you how seriously it takes research misconduct, ask them if it's *this* seriously. www.bmj.com/content/297/...
October 13, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Next time an institution tells you how seriously it takes research misconduct, ask them if it's *this* seriously. www.bmj.com/content/297/...
Reposted by Paul Clist
Blog with CGD colleagues: Cholera in Africa: Rising Deaths, Shrinking US Aid.
Africa seeing rising cholera deaths, but US foreign assistance not responding...
Africa seeing rising cholera deaths, but US foreign assistance not responding...
October 9, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Reposted by Paul Clist
We are thrilled to welcome Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee as the new Lemann Foundation Professors to our department, beginning in the summer of 2026.
October 10, 2025 at 9:46 AM
We are thrilled to welcome Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee as the new Lemann Foundation Professors to our department, beginning in the summer of 2026.
Reposted by Paul Clist
WOW, terrific news for @econ.uzh.ch and the wider European community 🤩🤩🤩 Congrats!
We are thrilled to welcome Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee as the new Lemann Foundation Professors to our department, beginning in the summer of 2026.
October 10, 2025 at 10:17 AM
WOW, terrific news for @econ.uzh.ch and the wider European community 🤩🤩🤩 Congrats!
Reposted by Paul Clist
🆕 Where to find development economics resources
I've updated my list of all the various sources of newsletters, articles, podcasts & videos relevant to development economics that I've come across in my three years at @voxdev.bsky.social: voxdev.org/topic/where-...
I've updated my list of all the various sources of newsletters, articles, podcasts & videos relevant to development economics that I've come across in my three years at @voxdev.bsky.social: voxdev.org/topic/where-...
Where to find development economics resources: Newsletters, articles, podcasts & videos
Where can you find articles, podcasts, and videos about research and topics in development economics? This blog is your one-stop shop for accessible resources related to development economics.
voxdev.org
September 18, 2025 at 12:15 PM
🆕 Where to find development economics resources
I've updated my list of all the various sources of newsletters, articles, podcasts & videos relevant to development economics that I've come across in my three years at @voxdev.bsky.social: voxdev.org/topic/where-...
I've updated my list of all the various sources of newsletters, articles, podcasts & videos relevant to development economics that I've come across in my three years at @voxdev.bsky.social: voxdev.org/topic/where-...
Reposted by Paul Clist
Foreign Policy has a new issue on "The End of Development."
Lots of pieces worth reading - I'll put my thoughts in this thread as I read through.
(Re the title, worth noting that development has always been about more than ODA + SDGs. That broader development is far from dead)
Lots of pieces worth reading - I'll put my thoughts in this thread as I read through.
(Re the title, worth noting that development has always been about more than ODA + SDGs. That broader development is far from dead)
What does the future look like for global aid, NGOs, and development diplomacy? Which new approaches in international development should the world move toward? Eight authors tackle these topics in FP’s latest print issue, available to read now: foreignpolicy.com/the-magazine...
FP’s Fall 2025 Print Magazine: The End of Development
foreignpolicy.com
September 9, 2025 at 2:11 AM
Foreign Policy has a new issue on "The End of Development."
Lots of pieces worth reading - I'll put my thoughts in this thread as I read through.
(Re the title, worth noting that development has always been about more than ODA + SDGs. That broader development is far from dead)
Lots of pieces worth reading - I'll put my thoughts in this thread as I read through.
(Re the title, worth noting that development has always been about more than ODA + SDGs. That broader development is far from dead)
Reposted by Paul Clist
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
September 5, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Reposted by Paul Clist
Back to teaching or studying economics at university this September?
@voxdev.bsky.social has tons of useful resources for university economics courses - I have included some examples in this thread. 1/n
@voxdev.bsky.social has tons of useful resources for university economics courses - I have included some examples in this thread. 1/n
September 2, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Back to teaching or studying economics at university this September?
@voxdev.bsky.social has tons of useful resources for university economics courses - I have included some examples in this thread. 1/n
@voxdev.bsky.social has tons of useful resources for university economics courses - I have included some examples in this thread. 1/n
Reposted by Paul Clist
“This is my local community. I’m worried about my children.”
That’s what a woman told GB News at the anti-migrant protest at the Barbican in London.
Problem is, she said the same thing at a protest in Epping days earlier. 🤦 ❌
hopenothate.org.uk/2025/08/05/o...
That’s what a woman told GB News at the anti-migrant protest at the Barbican in London.
Problem is, she said the same thing at a protest in Epping days earlier. 🤦 ❌
hopenothate.org.uk/2025/08/05/o...
One Woman, Two Protests, Zero Postcodes in Common: Tommy Robinson associate claims to be ‘concerned local resident’
Yesterday, former academic turned Reform UK cheerleader, Matt Goodwin tweeted a clip from the recent anti-migrant protest at the Barbican in London. “Why are you...
hopenothate.org.uk
August 5, 2025 at 12:09 PM
“This is my local community. I’m worried about my children.”
That’s what a woman told GB News at the anti-migrant protest at the Barbican in London.
Problem is, she said the same thing at a protest in Epping days earlier. 🤦 ❌
hopenothate.org.uk/2025/08/05/o...
That’s what a woman told GB News at the anti-migrant protest at the Barbican in London.
Problem is, she said the same thing at a protest in Epping days earlier. 🤦 ❌
hopenothate.org.uk/2025/08/05/o...
Reposted by Paul Clist
Every rich person is going to tell *you* how great AI teaching is while sending *their* kids to the kind of schooling the Ancient Greeks would recognize. I just wish everyone would think about why that is.
I think we’re on the cusp of mass attempts to automate teaching, and I also think it is going to be a massive wasteful failure in ways that will make the “learning loss” of the pandemic look like a speed bump next to a mountain.
August 5, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Every rich person is going to tell *you* how great AI teaching is while sending *their* kids to the kind of schooling the Ancient Greeks would recognize. I just wish everyone would think about why that is.
Reposted by Paul Clist
Loving the new Handbook of Culture & Economic Behavior (Benjamin Enke, Paola Giuliano, @nathannunn.bsky.social, Leonard Wantchekon)--fantastic work! Grateful to the editors & authors for the insightful, well-structured chapters. As a cultural/political economy fan, I've found it enriching&inspiring!
July 27, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Loving the new Handbook of Culture & Economic Behavior (Benjamin Enke, Paola Giuliano, @nathannunn.bsky.social, Leonard Wantchekon)--fantastic work! Grateful to the editors & authors for the insightful, well-structured chapters. As a cultural/political economy fan, I've found it enriching&inspiring!
Reposted by Paul Clist
Seeing too many diff-in-diff reviews and and summary articles but not sure where to start? We propose a new way to synthesize this growing literature using a Review in Reviews approach.
July 13, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Seeing too many diff-in-diff reviews and and summary articles but not sure where to start? We propose a new way to synthesize this growing literature using a Review in Reviews approach.
Reposted by Paul Clist
Researcher assumptions shape not just how experiments run—but what questions we ask. Outlining best practices for designing context-aware lab experiments in non-Western settings, from Sara Lowes and @nathannunn.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33981
July 7, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Researcher assumptions shape not just how experiments run—but what questions we ask. Outlining best practices for designing context-aware lab experiments in non-Western settings, from Sara Lowes and @nathannunn.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33981
Reposted by Paul Clist
In my latest blog post, I discuss the intuition behind the "bad control" problem, which unfortunately still appears to be quite common in econ papers.
#EconSky
deryugina.com/the-intuitio...
#EconSky
deryugina.com/the-intuitio...
July 1, 2025 at 2:23 PM
In my latest blog post, I discuss the intuition behind the "bad control" problem, which unfortunately still appears to be quite common in econ papers.
#EconSky
deryugina.com/the-intuitio...
#EconSky
deryugina.com/the-intuitio...