Kyungwon Suh
@kyungwon.bsky.social
Lecturer at ANU SDSC. Ph.D. from Syracuse. I study nuclear weapons, interstate coercion, alliance politics, and great power politics.
Pinned
Kyungwon Suh
@kyungwon.bsky.social
· Jun 26
Reassuring allies in times of crisis: assessing the effectiveness of tools for alliance reassurance in crises - Kyungwon Suh, 2025
What military and diplomatic instruments are effective for the United States to reassure its allies that their security will be protected as promised? Despite i...
doi.org
Thrilled to share my new EJIR article on what reassures U.S. allies in crises. It’s Open Access: doi.org/10.1177/1354...
A short thread 🧵
A short thread 🧵
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
1. Crises, acquisitions, and policy all suggest that conventional weapons are taking on a larger role deterring nuclear use. My new article in @intsecurity.bsky.social examines why US officials would consider conventional options when they have nuclear options available and how they might use them.
October 28, 2025 at 9:48 PM
1. Crises, acquisitions, and policy all suggest that conventional weapons are taking on a larger role deterring nuclear use. My new article in @intsecurity.bsky.social examines why US officials would consider conventional options when they have nuclear options available and how they might use them.
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
🚨 New article out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social with @svenhegewald.bsky.social
“The changing geography of support for European integration in the shadow of the Ukraine war."
How did Russia’s invasion reshape public support for EU policies?
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
“The changing geography of support for European integration in the shadow of the Ukraine war."
How did Russia’s invasion reshape public support for EU policies?
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
October 21, 2025 at 8:06 AM
🚨 New article out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social with @svenhegewald.bsky.social
“The changing geography of support for European integration in the shadow of the Ukraine war."
How did Russia’s invasion reshape public support for EU policies?
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
“The changing geography of support for European integration in the shadow of the Ukraine war."
How did Russia’s invasion reshape public support for EU policies?
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
How well could the US track Soviet mobile ICBMs in the cold war through SIGINT/ELINT satellites? A good debate here. "...it is more clear now that NSA tested the idea and had resources to pursue it." strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/sigint-and...
SIGINT and SRTs in the Cold War
A Response to Aaron Bateman
strategicsimplicity.substack.com
October 13, 2025 at 8:08 AM
How well could the US track Soviet mobile ICBMs in the cold war through SIGINT/ELINT satellites? A good debate here. "...it is more clear now that NSA tested the idea and had resources to pursue it." strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/sigint-and...
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
Fantastic resource for historians: a spreadsheet of NARA's digitized microfilm, with links to the files in the Archives catalog. May it help you as much as it has helped me.
www.archives.gov/files/colleg...
www.archives.gov/files/colleg...
www.archives.gov
August 21, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Fantastic resource for historians: a spreadsheet of NARA's digitized microfilm, with links to the files in the Archives catalog. May it help you as much as it has helped me.
www.archives.gov/files/colleg...
www.archives.gov/files/colleg...
Thrilled to share my new EJIR article on what reassures U.S. allies in crises. It’s Open Access: doi.org/10.1177/1354...
A short thread 🧵
A short thread 🧵
Reassuring allies in times of crisis: assessing the effectiveness of tools for alliance reassurance in crises - Kyungwon Suh, 2025
What military and diplomatic instruments are effective for the United States to reassure its allies that their security will be protected as promised? Despite i...
doi.org
June 26, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Thrilled to share my new EJIR article on what reassures U.S. allies in crises. It’s Open Access: doi.org/10.1177/1354...
A short thread 🧵
A short thread 🧵
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
Good piece by Richard Nephew, on why the destruction of Fordow isn't likely to be a silver bullet thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-...
The United States may destroy the Fordow enrichment plant. It won’t make the Iranian nuclear threat go away
If Israel decides to continue down the military path against Iran’s nuclear program, it has no choice but to ensure that the Fordow enrichment plant no longer poses a threat.
thebulletin.org
June 18, 2025 at 1:19 AM
Good piece by Richard Nephew, on why the destruction of Fordow isn't likely to be a silver bullet thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-...
Interested in how major geopolitical shifts shape the dynamics of state birth? Check out our new article on great power shocks and global patterns of secessionist movements (with Ryan Griffiths and @seva.bsky.social). Link: doi.org/10.1080/0305...
A short thread 🧵
A short thread 🧵
Hegemonic shocks and patterns of secession
Studies of secession typically focus on domestic factors that produce independence movements, such as the role of ethnic divides or the concentration of material resources. But motivations for sece...
doi.org
June 5, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Interested in how major geopolitical shifts shape the dynamics of state birth? Check out our new article on great power shocks and global patterns of secessionist movements (with Ryan Griffiths and @seva.bsky.social). Link: doi.org/10.1080/0305...
A short thread 🧵
A short thread 🧵
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
I asked the ministers whether they welcomed Golden Dome or saw it as destabilising. “It’s a defence mechanism, not an attack mechanism,” says NZ defence minister. “They’re not going to do it unless there is some reason to do it.”
May 31, 2025 at 8:14 AM
I asked the ministers whether they welcomed Golden Dome or saw it as destabilising. “It’s a defence mechanism, not an attack mechanism,” says NZ defence minister. “They’re not going to do it unless there is some reason to do it.”
Also for teacher.. I have a student essay where a footnote claims that a 1983 AJPS article used rare event logit estimator (!)
A cautionary tale for academic journal editors. Every single one of these very convincing-looking references is fake. Thanks AI for making us all more suspicious of each other and raising the barriers to publication...
May 23, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Also for teacher.. I have a student essay where a footnote claims that a 1983 AJPS article used rare event logit estimator (!)
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
NEW -
Anti-Asian Hate Crimes and American Reputation - cup.org/43cUf7F
"findings underscore the global significance of addressing hate crimes in the USA for the country’s reputation and soft power"
-Joonseok Yang, @sungeunkim.bsky.social, @jongheepark.bsky.social & @inbok.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Anti-Asian Hate Crimes and American Reputation - cup.org/43cUf7F
"findings underscore the global significance of addressing hate crimes in the USA for the country’s reputation and soft power"
-Joonseok Yang, @sungeunkim.bsky.social, @jongheepark.bsky.social & @inbok.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
May 15, 2025 at 9:10 AM
NEW -
Anti-Asian Hate Crimes and American Reputation - cup.org/43cUf7F
"findings underscore the global significance of addressing hate crimes in the USA for the country’s reputation and soft power"
-Joonseok Yang, @sungeunkim.bsky.social, @jongheepark.bsky.social & @inbok.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Anti-Asian Hate Crimes and American Reputation - cup.org/43cUf7F
"findings underscore the global significance of addressing hate crimes in the USA for the country’s reputation and soft power"
-Joonseok Yang, @sungeunkim.bsky.social, @jongheepark.bsky.social & @inbok.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>
May 10, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>
If the WW2 Vday for the US is May 8, then who won the Pacific War? Did I miss something?
May 6, 2025 at 5:23 AM
If the WW2 Vday for the US is May 8, then who won the Pacific War? Did I miss something?
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
🧵 I've been reviewing many of the past year's US & European military & intelligence assessments of how long it would take Russia to rebuild its military capability and the timeline on which any threat to NATO could unfold. A brief thread below which summarises these assessments.
Re-reading the Danish intelligence report from February 2025, which, I think, is the least conservative assessment of Russian reconstitution timelines & capability among all the published views from European intelligence services in the past year.
www.fe-ddis.dk/globalassets...
www.fe-ddis.dk/globalassets...
April 2, 2025 at 3:23 PM
🧵 I've been reviewing many of the past year's US & European military & intelligence assessments of how long it would take Russia to rebuild its military capability and the timeline on which any threat to NATO could unfold. A brief thread below which summarises these assessments.
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
📽️Are your favourite characters from Disney, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, & Star Wars left-wing or right-wing? 🤔
➡️ @turnbulldugarte.com & @markuswagner.bsky.social explore how we project political identities onto heroes & villains www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ @turnbulldugarte.com & @markuswagner.bsky.social explore how we project political identities onto heroes & villains www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
March 20, 2025 at 7:04 AM
📽️Are your favourite characters from Disney, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, & Star Wars left-wing or right-wing? 🤔
➡️ @turnbulldugarte.com & @markuswagner.bsky.social explore how we project political identities onto heroes & villains www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ @turnbulldugarte.com & @markuswagner.bsky.social explore how we project political identities onto heroes & villains www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
BREAKING: The Trump administration is considering to give up the role of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe - a role that began with then-World War II hero and future president Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Trump admin considers giving up NATO command that has been American since Eisenhower
The move is being discussed as part of a possible restructuring of combatant commands that would help the Defense Department cut costs.
nbcnews.to
March 18, 2025 at 9:46 PM
BREAKING: The Trump administration is considering to give up the role of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe - a role that began with then-World War II hero and future president Dwight D. Eisenhower.
There are indeed competing arguments on the capability requirement for credible extended nuclear deterrence. As for empirical research, I have not seen a poli sci publication that demonstrates that quant/qual nuclear balance has any impact on the credibility of extended nuclear deterrence.
Good piece by Vipin Narang & @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social. They're sceptical UK & France can substitute for US deterrence. But in a scenario like one below, wouldn't UK & Fr retain adequate strategic forces to also end Russia as a functioning society? strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/building-a...
March 17, 2025 at 10:55 AM
There are indeed competing arguments on the capability requirement for credible extended nuclear deterrence. As for empirical research, I have not seen a poli sci publication that demonstrates that quant/qual nuclear balance has any impact on the credibility of extended nuclear deterrence.
Many US allies in Asia experienced this with China when it comes to econ relationship. Now they will see the US following the same approach, and you still want to secure allied support to contain China. Good luck!
March 13, 2025 at 2:57 AM
Many US allies in Asia experienced this with China when it comes to econ relationship. Now they will see the US following the same approach, and you still want to secure allied support to contain China. Good luck!
With all the paperwork finalized, I am thrilled to announce that I’ve been awarded the Stanton Foundation’s Nuclear Security Grant to support my research on US arms control diplomacy and allies’ perceptions of extended deterrence credibility.
December 13, 2024 at 1:31 AM
With all the paperwork finalized, I am thrilled to announce that I’ve been awarded the Stanton Foundation’s Nuclear Security Grant to support my research on US arms control diplomacy and allies’ perceptions of extended deterrence credibility.
A good thread--could see some interrsting connections with ROK
Ok, let’s have a conversation about the true cost of the AVF, which it appears Elon and Vivek are just now discovering. But also why it’s the best system we have and why advocates for a return to the draft are fundamentally unserious. Buckle up for a fun #civmilsky thread 1/
November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM
A good thread--could see some interrsting connections with ROK
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
🚨New First View Article🚨
"‘How to entrap your protector: Reassessing entrapment in light of the Crimean War crisis" by Tudor Onea is now available online first view!
📜➡️ buff.ly/3OsfhbG
"‘How to entrap your protector: Reassessing entrapment in light of the Crimean War crisis" by Tudor Onea is now available online first view!
📜➡️ buff.ly/3OsfhbG
November 28, 2024 at 10:25 AM
🚨New First View Article🚨
"‘How to entrap your protector: Reassessing entrapment in light of the Crimean War crisis" by Tudor Onea is now available online first view!
📜➡️ buff.ly/3OsfhbG
"‘How to entrap your protector: Reassessing entrapment in light of the Crimean War crisis" by Tudor Onea is now available online first view!
📜➡️ buff.ly/3OsfhbG
Reposted by Kyungwon Suh
Not only strategically incoherent and immoral, this also demonstrates the core lack of character, courage and intelligence behind such thinking.
www.reuters.com/world/trump-...
www.reuters.com/world/trump-...
Exclusive: Trump adviser proposes new tiered system for NATO members who don't pay up
A leading national security adviser to Donald Trump told Reuters on Tuesday that he would push for changes to NATO if the former president returns to power that could result in some member nations losing protection against an outside attack.
www.reuters.com
February 13, 2024 at 9:47 PM
Not only strategically incoherent and immoral, this also demonstrates the core lack of character, courage and intelligence behind such thinking.
www.reuters.com/world/trump-...
www.reuters.com/world/trump-...