An interesting dynamic in FX is that while the US prices cuts through March of '27, a lot of DMs now have 1y1y rates that trade above their respective policy rates. YTD a lot of the yield convergence between US and RoW has come from above, but it is starting to come from below.
December 7, 2025 at 2:05 PM
An interesting dynamic in FX is that while the US prices cuts through March of '27, a lot of DMs now have 1y1y rates that trade above their respective policy rates. YTD a lot of the yield convergence between US and RoW has come from above, but it is starting to come from below.
A non-trivial part of these post Trump fiscal announcements around the world is that capital exporters are effectively going to need their money back. Thats meaningful when US NIIP position is 80% of GDP.
March 10, 2025 at 5:03 PM
A non-trivial part of these post Trump fiscal announcements around the world is that capital exporters are effectively going to need their money back. Thats meaningful when US NIIP position is 80% of GDP.
Reposted by Jon Turek
Sweet, @jturek18.bsky.social on Odd Lots: open.spotify.com/episode/5miC...
Lots More on the Growing Risks to the US Labor Market
Odd Lots · Episode
open.spotify.com
February 28, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Sweet, @jturek18.bsky.social on Odd Lots: open.spotify.com/episode/5miC...
Reposted by Jon Turek
Good time to revisit
@jturek18.bsky.social’s “The Dollar’s Imperial Circle” with USD ripping www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary...
@jturek18.bsky.social’s “The Dollar’s Imperial Circle” with USD ripping www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary...
www.newyorkfed.org
January 2, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Good time to revisit
@jturek18.bsky.social’s “The Dollar’s Imperial Circle” with USD ripping www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary...
@jturek18.bsky.social’s “The Dollar’s Imperial Circle” with USD ripping www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary...