Economics of War
@economicsofwar.bsky.social
Working in some of the more entertaining economies around the World. I focus upon the economic aspects of current conflicts including: #Myanmar #Sahel #Ukraine #Russia #NorthKorea #Syria #Yemen #Sudan #Libya #Moldova #Belarus
With the arms industry in #Ukraine producing more drones than Kyiv can buy, the potential for increasing the tax base through arms exports grows. Whilst it is preferable for such drones to be used in the War, the opportunity to build export markets is important for Ukraine's post-war recovery.
Ukrainian Drones and Weapons Head to Europe as Exports Expand
Amid daily shelling, Ukraine’s defense industry has reached peak production – surpassing what the government can buy. Kyiv is now looking to export its surplus.
www.kyivpost.com
November 29, 2025 at 3:33 PM
With the arms industry in #Ukraine producing more drones than Kyiv can buy, the potential for increasing the tax base through arms exports grows. Whilst it is preferable for such drones to be used in the War, the opportunity to build export markets is important for Ukraine's post-war recovery.
In #Sudan, the economic blockade of areas of Northern State controlled by the RSF will do more harm to the civilian population than the RSF. The RSF rely upon UAE's patronage, and whilst they benefit from leveraging fees off the local economy, they do not rely upon it. The people, however, do.
Northern State bans transfer of goods to RSF-held areas - Sudan Tribune
November 25, 2025 (DONGOLA) – Northern State Governor Abdel Rahman Abdel Hamid issued a decree on Tuesday banning the transport of goods to areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Kordof...
sudantribune.com
November 28, 2025 at 5:39 PM
In #Sudan, the economic blockade of areas of Northern State controlled by the RSF will do more harm to the civilian population than the RSF. The RSF rely upon UAE's patronage, and whilst they benefit from leveraging fees off the local economy, they do not rely upon it. The people, however, do.
Given high growth rates in the arms industry of #Russia, overall industry stagnation suggests a steep decline in companies without state contracts. This situation is set to worsen with no credible signals from the Kremlin that it is prepared to ease its investment in the Russo-Ukraine War.
Russian Industry Sentiment Falls to Late-1990s Lows – Report - The Moscow Times
Sentiment in Russia’s industrial sector fell to levels seen in the late 1990s in November, according to calculations by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INP RA...
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Given high growth rates in the arms industry of #Russia, overall industry stagnation suggests a steep decline in companies without state contracts. This situation is set to worsen with no credible signals from the Kremlin that it is prepared to ease its investment in the Russo-Ukraine War.
Poorly controlled ammunition dumps act as a constraint on economic growth in #Syria. Explosions is one factor, but of greater concern for business is the ability of a disgruntled faction to take control of such a site and reignite the conflict. This dampens investor confidence.
Five killed in huge blast in Syrian town of Kafr Takharim
A massive explosion has rocked the town of Kafr Takharim in Syria’s Idlib province, killing at least five people
www.newarab.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Poorly controlled ammunition dumps act as a constraint on economic growth in #Syria. Explosions is one factor, but of greater concern for business is the ability of a disgruntled faction to take control of such a site and reignite the conflict. This dampens investor confidence.
Actions by the KNLA reinforces the fact they, not the Junta nor the allied DKBA, are natural allies in combating scam centres operating in border areas of #Myanmar. Support needs to provided to Karen, Karenni and Mon groups that are not aligned with the Junta if this issue is to be addressed.
www.irrawaddy.com
November 25, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Actions by the KNLA reinforces the fact they, not the Junta nor the allied DKBA, are natural allies in combating scam centres operating in border areas of #Myanmar. Support needs to provided to Karen, Karenni and Mon groups that are not aligned with the Junta if this issue is to be addressed.
Hackers from #NorthKorea working with Russian intelligence significantly heightens cyber threats given the formers expertise in corporate crime. Increased corporate espionage, notably in industries involved in either research & development or producing materials to support Ukraine, can be expected.
North Korean, Russian cybercriminals join forces for first time: Report | NK News
North Korea’s infamous Lazarus Group appears to be working alongside the Russian intelligence-linked threat actor Gamaredon, marking “the first known case of Russian-North Korean cyber collaboration i...
www.nknews.org
November 24, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Hackers from #NorthKorea working with Russian intelligence significantly heightens cyber threats given the formers expertise in corporate crime. Increased corporate espionage, notably in industries involved in either research & development or producing materials to support Ukraine, can be expected.
The National Unity Government, operating in opposition to the #Myanmar Junta, must be innovative in fund raising. The international community is reluctant to finance the NUG, as they are the disparate forces arrayed against the Junta. Crypto is the latest innovation, but by no means the last.
www.irrawaddy.com
November 23, 2025 at 5:09 PM
The National Unity Government, operating in opposition to the #Myanmar Junta, must be innovative in fund raising. The international community is reluctant to finance the NUG, as they are the disparate forces arrayed against the Junta. Crypto is the latest innovation, but by no means the last.
The economy of #Ukraine is slowing, not least as Russia focuses upon economic targets. Legacy infrastructure, notably gas, needs to be diversified in order to reduce the ability of Russia to target distribution networks. Reducing demand for residential gas heating is sorely needed.
Ukraine’s economy slows and fiscal deficit rises
The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) is an internationally renowned research institute specialising in emerging economies and global economic developments.
www.bofit.fi
November 22, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The economy of #Ukraine is slowing, not least as Russia focuses upon economic targets. Legacy infrastructure, notably gas, needs to be diversified in order to reduce the ability of Russia to target distribution networks. Reducing demand for residential gas heating is sorely needed.
Actions by the Africa Corp in the #Sahel serve to increase support for Islamist and separatist forces. The irony being that the prioritisation of protecting mining operations over civilian populations undermines the viability of capital intensive investment such as those they seeking to profit from
What Are Russian Forces Doing In Mali Amid Jihadist Blocade?
Russian forces fighting in Mali have failed to break the country free from a stifling fuel blockade and attacks waged by suspected jihadists, as the wider Sahel region becomes further mired in conflic...
www.barrons.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Actions by the Africa Corp in the #Sahel serve to increase support for Islamist and separatist forces. The irony being that the prioritisation of protecting mining operations over civilian populations undermines the viability of capital intensive investment such as those they seeking to profit from
The liberalisation of the gas market in #Moldova is another step in reducing risks posed by energy dependence. It leaves room to re-engage with a peaceful Russia in the distant future, however reduces the risk of the type of dependency that threatened the country's sovereignty.
Moldova mandates competitive gas market for large businesses by 2026
Moldova’s gas market liberalisation is entering its critical phase, with mandatory changes set to take effect for large gas consumers in 2026.
moldova1.md
November 20, 2025 at 5:02 PM
The liberalisation of the gas market in #Moldova is another step in reducing risks posed by energy dependence. It leaves room to re-engage with a peaceful Russia in the distant future, however reduces the risk of the type of dependency that threatened the country's sovereignty.
Corporate tax in #Russia continues to fall, further risking further delayed payments from the Kremlin as finances are tight. Such delayed payments in an economy driven by state expenditure further erode corporate profits, further decreasing corporate tax, further reducing the Kremlin's finances...
Russian Companies Face Record Debt Burden as High Rates Squeeze Profits – Think Tank - The Moscow Times
Russian businesses are under mounting pressure from debt servicing as interest payments consumed a record 39% of pre-tax, pre-interest profits in September, according to estimates by the Kremlin-linke...
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Corporate tax in #Russia continues to fall, further risking further delayed payments from the Kremlin as finances are tight. Such delayed payments in an economy driven by state expenditure further erode corporate profits, further decreasing corporate tax, further reducing the Kremlin's finances...
Increasing attacks on women in #Yemen serves to drive down the economic potential of the country. Women in government controlled parts of Yemen, notably Taiz, were instrumental in improving accountability and protesting ill-conceived economic policies, particularly at the local government level.
How public assassinations are silencing Yemen’s women
According to the Yemeni Network for Rights and Freedoms, 5,618 violations against women between January 2017 and July 2025 across 17 governorates.
www.newarab.com
November 18, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Increasing attacks on women in #Yemen serves to drive down the economic potential of the country. Women in government controlled parts of Yemen, notably Taiz, were instrumental in improving accountability and protesting ill-conceived economic policies, particularly at the local government level.
In #Sudan, the Sudanese Armed Forces have a stronger grasp on the need for a functioning economy than the Rapid Support Forces, who rely more heavily upon patronage. That said, the SAF's capacity to provide such an environment is extremely low, primarily due to poor policies and weak enforcement.
Aid groups warn of 'complete collapse' in Darfur as displacement surges - Sudan Tribune
November 13, 2025 (TAWILA) – Hundreds of people are arriving daily in Tawila, North Darfur, despite the escalating humanitarian crisis, an IDP community leader said on Thursday. Situated approximately...
sudantribune.com
November 17, 2025 at 6:10 PM
In #Sudan, the Sudanese Armed Forces have a stronger grasp on the need for a functioning economy than the Rapid Support Forces, who rely more heavily upon patronage. That said, the SAF's capacity to provide such an environment is extremely low, primarily due to poor policies and weak enforcement.
An exceptional article on how the scam industry embedded itself in the politics of #Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia with a nod to the Philippines.
A must read for those who wish to know why the industry thrives in the region.
A must read for those who wish to know why the industry thrives in the region.
Southeast Asian governments implicated in the scam economy have moved to signal action. Yet these illicit industries are woven into the fabric of political and economic power itself, making genuine enforcement perilous for regimes that depend on them.
Cracking Southeast Asia’s Scam Economy
Washington and London’s recent unprecedented actions showed what global coordination can achieve – and what remains to be done.
buff.ly
November 16, 2025 at 6:16 PM
An exceptional article on how the scam industry embedded itself in the politics of #Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia with a nod to the Philippines.
A must read for those who wish to know why the industry thrives in the region.
A must read for those who wish to know why the industry thrives in the region.
The continued attack on fraud in #Ukraine is a sign that the country is prepared to tackle one of its most pressing issues. Fraud undermines the capacity of a country to defend itself, costing lives at the front line. Such graft needs to be eliminated if Russia is to be held back.
London Court Orders Kolomoisky and Boholiubov to Pay Ukraine JSC CB PrivatBank Over $3B in Damages
The High Court in London has ordered former owners of Ukraine’s largest state-owned bank, PrivatBank, to pay over $3 billion in a major fraud case.
www.kyivpost.com
November 15, 2025 at 4:37 PM
The continued attack on fraud in #Ukraine is a sign that the country is prepared to tackle one of its most pressing issues. Fraud undermines the capacity of a country to defend itself, costing lives at the front line. Such graft needs to be eliminated if Russia is to be held back.
The fiscal deficit in #Russia is ballooning. The steep increase in expenditure is partly due to the severe depletion, and in many areas exhaustion, of ex-Soviet stockpiles of useable equipment and munitions. Production and procurement is playing an increasing role in supplying Moscow's war effort.
KSE: Russia’s Oil Revenues Drop to $13.4B as New Sanctions Can Strain War Financing
Russia’s oil income fell to $13.4B in October. Western allies could tighten sanctions on oil trading, tanker insurance, and the National Wealth Fund to strain Moscow’s war financing.
www.kyivpost.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:32 PM
The fiscal deficit in #Russia is ballooning. The steep increase in expenditure is partly due to the severe depletion, and in many areas exhaustion, of ex-Soviet stockpiles of useable equipment and munitions. Production and procurement is playing an increasing role in supplying Moscow's war effort.
Whilst sanctions continue on #NorthKorea, their efficacy has been greatly undermined by the growing rapport with Russia. Still, the fact that ship-to-ship smuggling continues suggests relations with Russia are insufficient to cover all of Pyongyang's needs.
Canadian arctic patrol ship monitors North Korea smuggling for 2nd time in month | NK News
A Canadian arctic patrol vessel recently completed its second mission in a month to monitor North Korean maritime smuggling in violation of U.N. sanctions, Japan’s foreign ministry announced Tuesday. ...
www.nknews.org
November 12, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Whilst sanctions continue on #NorthKorea, their efficacy has been greatly undermined by the growing rapport with Russia. Still, the fact that ship-to-ship smuggling continues suggests relations with Russia are insufficient to cover all of Pyongyang's needs.
Whilst #Belarus wishes to increase its domestic defence industry, the reality is that when the Russo-Ukraine War slows down, Russia will dump a significant portion of surplus arms production in Belarus. Belarusian investors will be aware of this and are likely to stick to tractors rather than tanks
Lukashenko outlines tasks for domestic defense industry
The president noted that, thanks to good relations with Russia, Belarus currently possesses tactical nuclear weapons, and that the Oreshnik missile system will enter combat duty in December. However, ...
eng.belta.by
November 11, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Whilst #Belarus wishes to increase its domestic defence industry, the reality is that when the Russo-Ukraine War slows down, Russia will dump a significant portion of surplus arms production in Belarus. Belarusian investors will be aware of this and are likely to stick to tractors rather than tanks
The #Myanmar Junta continues to dismantle scam centres following heavy pressure from China, however most centres remain untouched. Scam centres under KNA control such as Shwe Koko continue to thrive, and despite the theatrics few, if any, top operators have been detained.
www.irrawaddy.com
November 10, 2025 at 9:45 PM
The #Myanmar Junta continues to dismantle scam centres following heavy pressure from China, however most centres remain untouched. Scam centres under KNA control such as Shwe Koko continue to thrive, and despite the theatrics few, if any, top operators have been detained.
Removing cash transactions for large business dealings is a sensible move to encourage a rules-based order in #Libya. The problem is, who is in charge of the rules? Benghazi and Tripoli need to work together to ensure Libyan businesses are not punished for working across both administrations.
Benghazi authorities implement mandatory electronic payment measures.
The Electronic Payment Services Activation Committee has mandated that major merchants and distributors conduct their transactions via banking services, checks, and letters of credit, eliminating cash...
libyaobserver.ly
November 9, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Removing cash transactions for large business dealings is a sensible move to encourage a rules-based order in #Libya. The problem is, who is in charge of the rules? Benghazi and Tripoli need to work together to ensure Libyan businesses are not punished for working across both administrations.
The surge in poverty in #Sudan is largely attributed to the War, however it should be noted this includes areas not directly involved in the conflict. Abysmal economic policies from the RSF and SAF heavily contributed to the impoverishment of the country.
Soldiers make poor economists.
Soldiers make poor economists.
Sudan minister says poverty soared to 71% due to conflict - Sudan Tribune
November 8, 2025 (PORT SUDAN) – Sudan’s poverty rate has surged to 71% from 21% since the start of the current conflict, the Minister of Human Resources and Social Welfare, Mutasim Ahmed Saleh, said o...
sudantribune.com
November 9, 2025 at 1:28 AM
The surge in poverty in #Sudan is largely attributed to the War, however it should be noted this includes areas not directly involved in the conflict. Abysmal economic policies from the RSF and SAF heavily contributed to the impoverishment of the country.
Soldiers make poor economists.
Soldiers make poor economists.
The #Myanmar Junta's efforts to collect tax revenues from overseas workers is a double-edged sword. It counters some of the domestic taxation revenue losses resulting from the War and poor economic policies, but also robs small business of a critical source of capital, stifling economic growth.
Myanmar regime’s tax revenue surges by a third, largely on the backs of migrant workers
The junta collected an additional one trillion kyat in the 2024-25 fiscal year, largely thanks to workers abroad, according to analysts
myanmar-now.org
November 7, 2025 at 8:00 PM
The #Myanmar Junta's efforts to collect tax revenues from overseas workers is a double-edged sword. It counters some of the domestic taxation revenue losses resulting from the War and poor economic policies, but also robs small business of a critical source of capital, stifling economic growth.
For #Ukraine to outlast Russia it must significantly improve its economic efficiency. Corruption is a significant inefficiency that the country cannot afford. Whilst it is good to see corrupt officials caught, much more needs to be done to strengthen the anti-corruption legal framework.
Ukraine nuclear energy sector official arrested over bribery scheme
Between June and November 2025, the official received Hr 1.67 million ($40,000) in illicit payments, with the total sum exceeding Hr 6.6 million ($156,000), according to the investigation.
kyivindependent.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:55 PM
For #Ukraine to outlast Russia it must significantly improve its economic efficiency. Corruption is a significant inefficiency that the country cannot afford. Whilst it is good to see corrupt officials caught, much more needs to be done to strengthen the anti-corruption legal framework.
Attacking the economic underpinnings of Russia's war machine will not stop Putin, however it will put pressure on those in #Russia who can. Reducing Russia's capacity to conduct the War, possibly to the point where reversals begin, will bring the end-date of this conflict closer.
Analysis: Ukraine’s Bombardment of Russia – Not Just Oil Refineries, Warships Any More
Kyiv is messaging it wants blackouts across west and south Russia, and has launched dozens of drone strikes targeting the Russian power grid to start the process.
www.kyivpost.com
November 5, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Attacking the economic underpinnings of Russia's war machine will not stop Putin, however it will put pressure on those in #Russia who can. Reducing Russia's capacity to conduct the War, possibly to the point where reversals begin, will bring the end-date of this conflict closer.
By undertaking an economic war in #Mali, the JNIM are threatening the entire #Sahel as their strategy expands. Russia is unable to provide the support that ECOWAS and France could bring to bear. International support for the three juntas' neighbours is needed if JNIM are to be contained.
Jihadi fighters affiliated with al Qaeda close in on Mali’s capital, as instability grows across Sahel region | CNN
A well-armed jihadist group affiliated with al Qaeda is closing in on Bamako, the capital of Mali. The country’s military junta and their Russian partners are struggling to counter the jihadis, who no...
edition.cnn.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:52 PM