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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 1d

Here's what they've been carting out all season. For every Dolphins snap there are only four draft picks on the field 😶

Percentage season-to-date snaps for homegrown picks, elsehwre picks, and undrafted players.

Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 1d

Here's what the Dolphins carted out last night.

Percentages of snaps for homegrown picks, elsewhere picks, and undrafted players.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 4d

You want those late rounders. Every last pick helps save money and contributes to emergent behavior.

Season percentage of snaps to homegrown picks on x-axis and season winning percentage on y-axis for seasons 2014-2024.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 4d

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 4d

Week 8 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): John Harbaugh and Eric DeCosta built a high functioning talent pipeline at the #Ravens. Their drafted players are currently getting 75% of the snaps. Easily the best in the NFL.

profootballassetallocation.com/2025/10/28/w...

Week 8 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR)

John Harbaugh and Eric DeCosta built a high functioning talent pipeline at the Ravens. Their drafted players are currently getting 75% of the snaps. Easily the best in the NFL. The right players need ...

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 5d

The Titans logo, like its roster, is an enflamed mass hurtling through time and space destined for cataclysmic impact.

Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 5d

This is an example of a healthy roster that has a better chance of absorbing the loss of a key player.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 5d

Ryan Poles (and by proxy Kevin Warren) didn't give Ben Johnson much to work with. That's third worst homegrown picks just above Dolphins and Vikings.

Percentage of season-to-date snaps allocated to homegrown picks, elsewhere picks, and undrafted players. Also broken out by side of ball.

Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 5d

Sad state of roster affairs Kwesi handed his coaches.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 7d

The roster is destitute. Chris Grier saddled them with nothing and everyone but the front office has to answer for it.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

Of course, #Colts other cornerstones have also stabilized. New ownership (offspring) appears to be thinking clearly. Head coach has had time to establish a regime. And there is a quarterback. As with most high functioning systems the sum is greater than the parts and the Colts are 6-1.

Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

All of this suggests a much healthier talent pipeline. Ballard deserves credit for figuring something out. This is the fourth year in a row of healthy player origin data. Ballard should at least feel confident enough to go out in public with gray hair.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

And here is the drafted player summary for the week 7 blowout win against the bannana bunch #Chargers. It bodes well rounds 1-4 are the strongest rounds.

A bar chart with elsewhere picks in gray and homegrown picks in blue. The x axis shows rounds 1-7 y axis shows the percentages. The colts have more blue than gray.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

Here is the week-over-week trend of percentage of homegrown picks above league average. #Colts are well above average each week.

A bar chart with each week on x and percentage above league average on y. All bars are well positive.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

Of note is the low percentage of snaps to undrafted players at 18.6%, which is ranked 10. Additionally, we can see what side of the ball gets the homegrown picks: 34.3% to Steichen’s offense versus 16.2% to defense.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

But the worm may have turned. It somewhat coincides with Shane Steichen (hired in 2023) but Ballard’s percentage of snaps to homegrown picks has been increasing. And through seven weeks the #Colts are ranked 8 at almost 60%. Here are their splits through seven games:

Two-level donut chart showing first the percentage of snaps to homegrown picks, elsewhere picks, and unrafted players. And scond those are split by side of the ball.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

Ballard’s track record is mediocre. His teams don’t win much. Three for 11 in playoff appearances. (Andrew Luck was QB in 2017 and 2018.) His talent pipeline appears to barely function 2017-2021. The Josh McDaniels Affair. Number 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson currently deep in the red.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

#Colts player origin splits under Ballard:

2017--36%/33%/31% won 4 games
2018--50%/25%/24% won 10 games
2019--55%/21%/24% won 7 games
2020--53%/25%/22% won 11 games
2021--50%/24%/27% won 9 games
2022--62%/19%/19% won 4 games
2023--66%/18%/16% won 9 games
2024--71%/16%/14% won 8 games

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

There are only three types of players on an NFL roster: homegrown picks/elsewhere picks/undrafted players. We calculate the percentage of total snaps across a full season for these three types of players. Here are Ballard’s splits since he became #Colts GM in 2017:

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

Guess it’s time to discuss the #Colts, with their predominantly white uniforms and Just For Men general manager. (Sidenote, can we trust a dude with chocolate lettuce? Aging men of the world: 50 is the new 30, you can appear less old simply by going to the gym and eating well.)

Colts GM Chris Ballard with a white beard and chocolate monotone hair that cou;d have come from only one place: a Just For Men box.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 11d

Week 7 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): The #Colts shall adorn every NFL-related headline this week. As soon as The Ketchup and Mustard Reign appeared to begin its descent, the #Chiefs enter our daily lives once again.

profootballassetallocation.com/2025/10/21/w...

Week 7 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): The Colts shall adorn every NFL-related headline this week. As soon as The Ketchup and Mustard Reign appeared to begin its descent, the Chiefs enter our d...

Access the Week 7 Snaps Report for 2025 Week 7 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): The Colts shall adorn every NFL-related headline this week. As soon as The Ketchup and Mustard Reign appeared to b...

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 16d

For #Steelers and #Benglas tonight here is a look at how both teams build. Steelers play a bunch of mercs; Mike Brown makes his stooge coach play the draft picks.

From the steelers community on Reddit

Explore this post and more from the steelers community

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 17d

[1/3 Signpost] Week 6 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): Top 10 teams in homegrown picks percentage are high quality organizations. The bottom 10 are really good at collecting revenue share checks.

[1/3 Signpost] Week 6 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): Top 10 teams in homegrown picks percentage are high quality organizations. The bottom 10 are really good at collecting revenue share checks...

Weeks 6 Player Origin Snaps Report: who is playing and who isnt

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 25d

Week 5 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): Bucs are a proper football program with a 4-1 record and top five homegrown roster. Commanders are 3-2 with a bottom three homegrown roster with a bunch of mercs that play hard.

report_week_5

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · Oct 2

But Shanny/Lynch and McVay/Snead regimes are to be respected. The cheapest most reliable approach is to fully load up on drafted and developed players. It makes room for everything else. These programs don’t have that. And they manage to make up for it.