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Expected Own Goals

@xowngoals.com

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A podcast about the NWSL, USWNT, and women's soccer around the world. Listen: https://open.spotify.com/show/30ThmaUENe9hTGo00Y Watch: youtube.com/@xOwnGoals Subscribe: patreon.com/c/xOwnGoals Support: https://ko-fi.com/xowngoals

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

On this week's "Anatomy of", we try to tease out what North Carolina Courage (and future Boston Legacy FC) goalkeeper Casey Murphy looks for when she lines up to stop a pen. Like the clip in question, she got the better of us. Like/subscribe!

#NWSL | #USWNT

youtu.be/mFNIiEFKBeM

Casey Murphy STONEWALLS Us When We Ask About Saving Penalties

YouTube video by Expected Own Goals

youtu.be

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 7h

22 total fouls called, exactly the league average for this season.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 7h

Postgame data cleanup brings their xG up to 3.15

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 7h

Angel City racked up 3.0 xG and gave up only 0.6, per Opta's model.

That's the team's biggest non-penalty xG margin in club history.

#AngelCityFC | #Volemos | #NWL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 7h

Angel City racked up 3.0 xG and gave up only 0.6, per Opta's model.

That's the team's biggest non-penalty xG margin in club history.

#AngelCityFC | #Volemos | #NWL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 7h

Jun Endo with a top five touch we’ve ever seen. WOWOWOWOWOW

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 9h

Win probabilities for Angel City FC - Houston Dash based on announced XIs, via @americansocceranalysis.com

Angel City win: 41%
Draw: 27%
Dash win: 32%

#AngelCityFC | #HoustonDash | #LAvHOU | #NWSL

Reposted by Expected Own Goals

g+ GameFlow @gameflow.bsky.social · 1d

g+ GameFlow: NWSL Regular Season Seattle Reign v Bay FC on October 10, 2025. #RGNvBAY ⚽️🤖

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 1d

To give some apples-to-apples comparisons:

- 2.6 points per game, the most ever
- 83% win percentage, the biggest ever
- Lorena has a 64% shutout percentage, the biggest ever

These aren't records being padded by the extra games. They are staggeringly real.

Chad Smith @chadcsmith.bsky.social · 1d

The KC Current win 2-0 over Gotham FC!
- 62 points, the most ever
- 20th win, the most ever
- Lorena's 14th shutout, the most ever

kcsoccerjournal.com/10/11/2025/t...

The KC Current Shatter More NWSL Records over Gotham FC

Highlights and a recap of all the action between the Kansas City Current and NJ/NY Gotham FC, at CPKC Stadium.

kcsoccerjournal.com

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 1d

Casey Murphy is back in the starting lineup for the Courage! If she faces a pen, how will she handle it? We wouldn't know! Watch her weave her way around our questions on penalty strategy.

Casey Murphy STONEWALLS US When We Ask About Saving Penalties

YouTube video by Expected Own Goals

youtu.be

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 1d

It is official: The Kansas City Current will set the #NWSL all-time points-per-game record, previously held by the 2018 North Carolina Courage.

#KCBABY

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 1d

Win probabilities for North Carolina Courage - Washington Spirit based on announced XIs, via @americansocceranalysis.com

Courage win: 30%
Draw: 26%
Spirit win: 44%

#NCvWAS | #NWSL

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 1d

Win probabilities for Kansas City Current - Gotham FC based on announced XIs, via @americansocceranalysis.com

Current win: 53%
Draw: 27%
Gotham win: 20%

#KCBABY | #GothamFC | #KCvNJY | #NWSL

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

And only the second time this season they won the non-penalty xG battle by more than 0.5. The other game? A road game back in April, also to Bay FC.

Theo Lloyd-Hughes @theolloydhughes.bsky.social · 2d

third-highest xG of the szn (2.00) Seattle Reign tonight

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Reposted by Expected Own Goals

g+ GameFlow @gameflow.bsky.social · 2d

g+ GameFlow: NWSL Regular Season Racing Louisville FC v Chicago Stars on October 10, 2025. #LOUvCHI ⚽️🤖

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Reposted by Expected Own Goals

g+ GameFlow @gameflow.bsky.social · 2d

g+ GameFlow: NWSL Regular Season Orlando Pride v Portland Thorns FC on October 10, 2025. #ORLvPOR ⚽️🤖

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

The model coulda been "wrong", too! That's probability for you. Play the game 10 times and the Thorns win 3, but the Pride win 4, according to the model's math. Both teams were pretty evenly matched and it coulda gone multiple directions. Somehow fitting that it ended on an at-the-death OG.

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

Win probabilities for Seattle Reign - Bay FC based on announced XIs, via @americansocceranalysis.com

Reign win: 45%
Draw: 27%
Bay win: 28%

#BayFC | #SEAvBAY | #NWSL

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

elmo from sesame street standing in front of a wall

ALT: elmo from sesame street standing in front of a wall

media.tenor.com

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

Everyone catch their breath?!? Racing Louisville save a point at the death against the Chicago Stars.

Score: 1 - 1
xG: 2.3 - 1.4
xG/Shot: 0.10 - 0.09
Quality Chances: 6 - 1
Box Shots: 16 - 11
Box Touches: 58 - 31
Field Tilt: 62 - 38
Flibbity-jibbety energy: 18 - 43

#RacingLou | #LOUvCHI | #NWSL

SofaScore graphic depicting the shifts in momentum in the game between Racing Louisville and the Chicago Stars FC on October 10th, 2025.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

And visit VizHub if you haven't already!

viz.americansocceranalysis.com

Catalina @catabush.com · 2d

@xowngoals.com just released a patreon episode that is the realization of my dream for VizHub and how it could be used. It is honestly flattering to see such thoughtful and in-depth analysis made using VizHub graphics. I highly recommend you give it a listen and sub to xOG if you haven't already.

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

Win probabilities for Orlando Pride - Portland Thorns based on announced XIs, via
@americansocceranalysis.com

Pride win: 38%
Draw: 28%
Thorns win: 34%

#BAONPDX | #ORLvPOR | #NWSL

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

Win probabilities for Racing Louisville - Chicago Stars FC based on announced XIs, via @americansocceranalysis.com

Louisville win: 61%
Draw: 23%
Chicago win: 16%

#RacingLou | #LOUvCHI | #NWSL

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

It's becoming increasingly difficult to argue against this with each passing game.

Claire Watkins @scoutripley.bsky.social · 4d

Is A’ja Wilson the best WNBA player of all time

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

Casey Murphy STONEWALLS Us When We Ask About Saving Penalties

YouTube video by Expected Own Goals

youtu.be

Reposted by Expected Own Goals

Shameless Reign Stan @watmildon.bsky.social · 5d

Turning our haters into waiters at the cooler of our success.

Reign FC

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