Author | Lightnews

Weather Fanatic @weatherfanlin.bsky.social · 6h

50mph #tropicalstorm #melissa to peak at =>120mph C3 Major #Hurricane
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Cuba #CaymanIslands start preps
#Bahamas #TurksandCaicos to monitor
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #hurricaneseason2025 #Tropicalstormmelissa #HurricaneMelissa

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Weather Fanatic @weatherfanlin.bsky.social · 6h

Hong Kong Observatory at Tsim Sha Tsui fell to 18.2C on Oct 22 2025
Coldest temp since the 2nd half of the yr began

Weather Fanatic @weatherfanlin.bsky.social · 7h

50mph #Fengshen in N #SouthChinaSea heading SW
C #Vietnam E #Thailand #Cambodia S #Laos S #Hainan #China to FINISH PREPS now
To peak at 60mph #Tropicalstorm
LIFE THREATENING #Flooding Rains/ #Mudsldes likely!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicsWx #blueSkywx #台風24号 #Tropicalstormfengshen #Hue #danang #Sanya

Weather Fanatic @weatherfanlin.bsky.social · 7h

12"+ rain possible in S #Haiti SW #DominicanRepublic #Jamaica 4" in E #Cuba #TurksandCaicos SE #Bahamas
Life Threatening #flooding/ #Mudslides likely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Tropicalstorm #Hurricane #Hurricaneseason2025 #Tropicalstormmelissa #HurricaneMelissa

Weather Fanatic @weatherfanlin.bsky.social · 7h

50mph #tropicalstorm #melissa to peak at =>120mph C3 Major #Hurricane
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Cuba #CaymanIslands start preps
#Bahamas #TurksandCaicos to monitor
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #hurricaneseason2025 #Tropicalstormmelissa #HurricaneMelissa

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Extreme Temperatures Around the World @extremetemps.bsky.social · 9h

China experienced a sudden shift in temperature! On October 21st, 6 stations, and on October 22nd, 14 stations broke their the lowest October Tmax records! Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong dipped below 18C, reaching their lowest point in six months

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 22h

The latest NHC #Melissa track has an average movement of only 2.5 mph! That’s ~300 miles in 5 days. Devastating to Hispaniola, and dangerous for #Jamaica if it takes this track (or east) this slowly, while strengthening.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 22h

My hunch why so many global models (esp the GFS) have struggled with #Melissa today is in part because most of them don't have sufficient spatiotemporal resolution to fully resolve this shallow & strong Caribbean Low Level Jet.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 22h

Given how unfavorable the environment typically is in this part of the Caribbean, it's certainly no small feat that #Melissa formed last night

It's worth mentioning tho that October is typically when the easterly trades are the weakest in the Caribbean "Graveyard" as shown below 👇

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 22h

Piggy-backing off a post I made in 2021 on "X"/twitter, shallow and strong wind shears like this are much more detrimental to tropical cyclones because it leads to greater vortex tilt (as we've seen with #Melissa today)

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 22h

As explained above, this acceleration of the trades is associated w/ the Caribbean Low-Level Jet & leads to a shallow/strong low-level shear and divergence that often disrupts TCs, esp. weak ones like #Melissa

This Caribbean Low-Level Jet peaks ~925mb near the top of the boundary layer (see below)

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 22h

#Melissa has struggled w/ wind shear today & the vortex remains very tilted

It's common for weak TCs like #Melissa to struggle in the Central Caribbean, an area of the Atlantic known as the Caribbean "Graveyard"

Here's a mini-🧵 on what the Caribbean "Graveyard" is & why it matters here:

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 23h

One potential scenario from a close pass/ or direct hit from #Melissa is 3 feet + of rain in parts of #Hispaniola. Some models show this, others show a further west solution, and possibly stronger. Here’s a quick explainer.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 11h

If #Melissa finds its way south-southwest of Jamaica in several days, this environment has the highest ceiling for any Atlantic tropical cyclone I can remember.

Big, strong, slow-moving hurricanes like what #Melissa may become are when things like Oceanic Heat Content will start to matter a lot.