Tilman Fries
@tilmanfries.bsky.social
320 followers 320 following 5 posts
Economist | Assistant professor at LMU Munich | I work on beliefs, communication, etc. https://tilmanfries.github.io/
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Reposted by Tilman Fries
kevinzollman.com
I did the thing you are never supposed to do. I wrote a (rough draft of a) textbook: Theories of Rational Decision

It's technical, but from a philosophical perspective. It focuses on the normative theory but touches on some behavioral issues as well.

raw.githubusercontent.com/kzollman/Rat...
raw.githubusercontent.com
Reposted by Tilman Fries
jholbo.bsky.social
It's what's known as a DOS attack - denial-of-simplicity-and-strength attack. To inhibit capacity for abstraction, creativity and useful theory. @kjhealy.co
kieranhealy.org/files/papers...
tilmanfries.bsky.social
This should make us a bit humble when studying how people update in settings where "easy" closed-form solutions exist.

More than history, the book has deep philosophical debates about the the tools that researchers use everyday.
tilmanfries.bsky.social
One more curious lesson was that, in Bayes' original article on his theorem, he discusses how to infer P(heads) from tossing a coin n times. Today, we know that the unif. prior solution is (m+1)/(n+1), where m= # heads. But Bayes didn't. He couldn't solve the integral! Laplace did this later.
tilmanfries.bsky.social
Picked this up thanks to @economeager.bsky.social's blog. Highly ecommended if you're into decision theory or stats.
the cover of "ten great ideas about chance", a book by persi diaconis and brian skyrms.
Reposted by Tilman Fries
bsoeberlin.bsky.social
🎬 INSIGHTS Video: Narrative Persuasion 🌍
How do narratives shape economic decision-making? 💡 In our interview, @kaibarron.bsky.social (@wzb.bsky.social b.bsky.social) discusses how narratives influence investors' interpretations of objective information. Watch here 👉 www.youtube.com/watch?v=uowZ...
Narrative Persuasion - How one person may shape another's interpretation of objective information
YouTube video by WZBlive
www.youtube.com