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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 2d

So now Bibi isn't going again? Why tf would he allow everyone else to determine the future of the region?

www.haaretz.com/middle-east-...

Netanyahu declines Trump's invitation to Egypt Gaza summit citing Jewish holiday

The Meeting, Focused on the Israel-Hamas Agreement, Will Bring Together More Than 20 Heads of State, Including Leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, in a Show of Support for Trump's Po...

www.haaretz.com

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 2d

100%
i think this plan has more of a vision to it.
Israeli media and socials are ecstatic. it's wild.

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 2d

If Trump asks the knesset to anoint him the next King of Israel today, I am 100% sure they will oblige.

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 2d

This is the first time in my adult life that Israeli media mention end-of-conflict scenarios. Suddenly no more pundit nonsense about 'total victory'. There is worry about disarming hamas, enforcement, etc. I don't remember this level of optimism since i was a kid.

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 2d

I am stunned, watching Israel's ch11/12 all morning. Excitement about the hostages coming home. The end of the war. Trump. Indonesian president's visit. That Israel will join the world at Sharm. Something is very different today.

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 2d

🤣

Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 2d

🤔

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 6d

...one morning and everything is different today than it was yesterday. Usually it's for the worst, but not always."
This morning is one of those days. I see the first glimmer of optimism in my adult life. 2/2

Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 6d

Whenever I teach about the conflict, there's always a moment where my students ask me if there's any reason to think things could ever get better.
I always say something like "I don't see a way out. No happy ending. That said, it's a fickle place and from time to time you wake up... 1/2

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 18d

Maybe settlements are supposed to be the price

Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 18d

Nothing explicit against settlements in the strip either. Only implied in pt 16.

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Reposted by Dr Steven Wagner

Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.bsky.social · 19d

Happy Stanislav Petrov day! Sometimes, questioning what the computer tells you, is the way to go.

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 20d

In his world only fancy people get horses

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 24d

To those saying that recognition of Palestine is a reward for terrorism, may I remind of you of Israel's origins?

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · Sep 8

Look what came in the mail today!
(Feat. my chapter on covert action in Mandatory Palestine.)

@magslong.bsky.social @rorycormac.bsky.social @markstout.bsky.social @dvanp.bsky.social

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · Aug 24

I still don't get why Palantir and not any of the other firms with no real product or market...

Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · Jul 25

The difference is that the Biden WH at least thought about what they were doing and packaged their pressure as part of a current of both domestic and Israeli politics. They could have been tougher but I'm not sure it would have helped.

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · Jul 21

so many war movies and books tend toward a trope of the older generation's last war.
The only one I can think of where that's central to the story is "last flag flying".

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · Jun 26

I just can't get over them calling themselves that. AQ should sue or whatever.

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · Jun 18

My latest BCISS blog post on the Iran Israel war.

Was Iran really close to building a bomb? I doubt it, but who knows?!

The pretext and cause for war are far less certain than its consequences.

intelligencestudiesreview.blog/2025/06/18/s...

Signals, Sabotage, and Strategic Collapse: Intelligence and Ambiguity in the Iran-Israel Conflict

The Israeli-Iran war remains in an extremely dangerous phase. Deterrence has collapsed. Although the Israelis have said they expect a two-week campaign, there is no obvious end in sight. Now, Iran’…

intelligencestudiesreview.blog

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Reposted by Dr Steven Wagner

Matthew Ford @warmatters.bsky.social · Jun 17

Come do a PhD at @forsvarshogskolan.bsky.social. You could be supervised by some of my fantastic colleagues while working in a vibrant, pluralistic & highly engaged research environment.

These positions are fully salaried & come with a research budget of 30k SEK a year fhs.varbi.com/en/what:job/...

PhD students in War Studies

The Department of War Studies conducts research and education in the subject of War Studies. The department consists of about 160 employees and has about 1000 students and participants in commissioned

fhs.varbi.com

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · Jun 13

Channel 12 illustration of the drone op in Iran v the guardian illustration of Ukraine's drone op in Russia. That's one hell of a coincidence.

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · Jun 4

ripe old ages for alcoholics, though

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · Apr 8

My colleagues and I wrote a short blog series on the occasion of Oleg Gordievsky's passing. My contribution teases some preliminary findings from my Able Archer wargame.

intelligencestudiesreview.blog/category/bci...

BCISS Symposium on Oleg Gordievsky – Intelligence Studies Review

Posts about BCISS Symposium on Oleg Gordievsky written by Steven B. Wagner and bcissblog

intelligencestudiesreview.blog

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Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · Mar 11

Come see @drichterova.bsky.social, Phil Davies and I at KCL 01 April 2025 5pm
We are speaking in a forum as part of the UK book launch for Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict, ed. @matthefler.bsky.social. FREE COPIES for attendees thanks to the publisher!
Info here
www.kcl.ac.uk/events/book-...

Book Launch: 'Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict: Communication in Diplomacy, Statecraft and War'

Book Launch: 'Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict: Communication in Diplomacy, Statecraft and War' by Matthew Hefler

www.kcl.ac.uk

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