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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

13/ This matters because it’s about John Swinney’s integrity, and (not for the first time) civil servants are complicit in the misleading of parliament.

Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

12/ But this edifice always depended on the finest of margins, and it has now come crumbling down. In fact, it’s been nothing but rubble for at least the last two financial years.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

11/ The whole charade was designed purely for the purpose of being able to boast that more than half of taxpayers in Scotland paid less income tax than if they lived elsewhere in the UK.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

10/ The Scottish starter rate of income tax was always a gimmick. Below the relevant tipping point in earnings it meant lower income taxes than elsewhere in the UK by about 50 pence a week.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

9/ If the miracle does occur, there will be no “continuation” - the claim has been provably false for the last two financial years.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

8/ Even if, by some miracle, forecasts which have been systematically wrong for the last two financial years suddenly come good this year, Swinney’s use of the word “continue” would still be a flagrant case of misleading parliament.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

7/ And listen carefully to what Swinney says here:

“Over half of taxpayers in Scotland *continue* to pay less tax than if they lived elsewhere in the United Kingdom.”

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

6/ Remarkably, Swinney is relying on a forecast for 2025-26 (made in December 2024) which is now very clearly wrong.

It’s very clearly wrong because similar forecasts were made for the two previous financial years, and we now have outturn data proving those forecasts were wrong.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

5/ We therefore know for sure that Scot Gov’s high-profile claim was not true in the last two financial years.

So why is Scot Gov arguing that it’s perfectly okay for Swinney to repeat the claim in parliament, and to accuse Russell Findlay of misleading parliament?

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

4/ In 2023-24 the proportion of Scottish taxpayers below the tipping point was:

1.4 / (1.4 + 1.06 + 0.46) = 48%

And in 2024-25 the proportion of Scottish taxpayers below the tipping point was:

1.46 / (1.46 + 1.05 +0.523) = 48%

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

3/ The income tipping points above which Scottish taxpayers paid more income tax than if they lived elsewhere in the UK in 2023-24 and 2024-25 were £27,850 and £28,867 respectively. Nobody disputes those numbers.

So, using the HMRC outturn data in the FOI response…

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

2/ This is the HMRC outturn data for the last two financial years. The FOI request was tailored specifically to test the veracity of Scot Gov’s high-profile claim that the majority of taxpayers in Scotland pay less income tax than if they lived elsewhere in the UK.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28m

1/ Swinney falsely accused Findlay of misleading parliament

Swinney then misled parliament himself

Swinney now refusing to apologise and correct the Official Report

His justification: stale and obviously incorrect forecasts when actual outturn data proves his claim is false

Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 20h

1/ This is outrageous. John Swinney misled parliament by falsely claiming that more than half of taxpayers in Scotland pay less income tax than if they lived elsewhere in the UK. Scot Gov says this is perfectly fine because his remarks were based on SFC forecasts for 2025-26.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 20h

5/ The full backstory is here:

Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 12d

1/ Update. The data cited below strongly suggested that John Swinney misled parliament yesterday, but it wasn’t quite definitive. Because all taxpayers in Scotland benefit from the 19% starter rate, the tipping point at which taxpayers paid more in 2023-24 was about £2k above…

Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 12d

1/ According to the latest Scottish Income Tax Outturn Statistics, intermediate + higher + top rate taxpayers were 57% of all taxpayers in Scotland in 2023-24.

These bands all pay tax at rates higher than the rUK equivalents.

Source: www.gov.uk/government/s...

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 20h

4/ And here is the FOI reponse from HMRC which provides the outturn data proving that Swinney misled parliament. www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/scot...

Scottish tax payers - a Freedom of Information request to HM Revenue and Customs

Can you please provide data confirming the number of people in Scotland (ie with a Scottish tax code) who earned less than £27,850 and the number of people who earned more than this for the 2023/24 ta...

www.whatdotheyknow.com

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 20h

3/… the SFC forecasts for the previous two financial years were wrong. Here is John Swinney, telling parliament something which simply isn’t true.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 20h

2/ Everyone knows that the claim originated in SFC forecasts. But we now have HMRC outturn data which demonstrates that the SFC forecasts for 2023-24 and 2024-25 were wrong. It is dishonest in the extreme to continue to rely on an SFC forecast for 2025-26 when we know…

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 20h

1/ This is outrageous. John Swinney misled parliament by falsely claiming that more than half of taxpayers in Scotland pay less income tax than if they lived elsewhere in the UK. Scot Gov says this is perfectly fine because his remarks were based on SFC forecasts for 2025-26.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 23h

Shirley-Anne Somerville refuses (repeatedly) to address the question of how an independent Scotland would deal with its fiscal deficit. Nick Robinson eventually gives up, and winds up the interview.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 1d

The full Scotcast episode can be found here:

BBC Radio Scotland - Scotcast, How smart is the SNP independence plan?

And Chris Mason on major parties receiving a 'kick in the whatsits'.

www.bbc.co.uk

Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 1d

Martin Geissler’s debrief on his Sunday Show interview with John Swinney. Hard to argue with any of this. #Scotcast

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 1d

The latest evisceration is here:

Lawyers debunk Swinney’s plan to force fresh referendum

Claims that an SNP majority in the Holyrood election would pave the way for indyref2 ‘have no legal precedent’

www.thetimes.com

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 1d

If he’s not careful, John Swinney is going to get a reputation for pitching stupid ideas which are immediately torn to shreds by experts…

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 1d

Màiri McAllan said this morning that independence was all about breaking away from “neoliberalism”.

John Swinney said in 2012 that the opportunity to make Scotland a tax haven was what most excited him about independence. www.ft.com/content/66bc...

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 1d

Here is the clip: