Author | Lightnews

SmartVoting.ca

@smartvoting.ca

1.6K followers 5 following 210 posts

SmartVoting.ca helps Canadians stop MAGA-style, far-right politics by voting strategically. Let’s work together on preventing Conservative wins and keeping Canada inclusive, democratic, and progressive. www.smartvoting.ca

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Jun 16

It’s a theoretical number, if an election was held today.

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Jun 15

Our federal model has fired back up and started to turn out data from ridings across Canada. While we are not in election mode these numbers (and riding predictions) will update on Sundays.

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Jun 15

FEDERAL PROJECTIONS - June 15, 2025

LPC: 174
CPC: 140
BQ: 22
NDP: 6
GPC: 1

#politics #polling #canada #poll #cdnpoli #smartvoting

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 30

While we continue to parse the election data we can report our preliminary accuracy.

94% of the riding we predicted the winner correctly.

70% of the time we got the percentage the candidate was going to get in the riding correct.

More data to come at SmartVoting.ca

#cdnpoli

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 28

SmartVoting.ca Final Federal Seat Projections. Decisive Liberal Majority. CPC Opposition. NDP loses party status.

FINAL FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 185 (215)
CPC: 124 (86)
BQ: 24 (26)
NDP: 9 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 28, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 28

Running final numbers now

SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 27

In our penultimate update for the 2025 Federal Election. Liberal climb back up to above 190 seats.

Final update tomorrow morning.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 192 (218)
CPC: 118 (87)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 9 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 27, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 27

Hey Brad! Can you tell carney about us. Would love to chat with him about what we’re doing.

SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 26

VoteWell pulls 388 data and doesn’t do their own projection modelling as well as having a ground game. This all costs money.

SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 26

Seat counts tighten among progressive parties as we enter the final weekend.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 188 (217)
CPC: 119 (85)
BQ: 25 (26)
NDP: 10 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 26, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 26

This election is like no other. In this short time we have had our site hit a screen 35 million times. This is an unbelievable number to us and we couldn’t have done it with our support.

#smartvoting #election2025 #canada

SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 26

We get a lot of feedback that “We don’t use/have riding polls.” While technically true, aggregates use pretty cool techniques to get these predictions.

It also works. Here is more info 👇🏻

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 25

Tell that to the voters. The data just isn’t there for them to win. Sorry. We may be wrong there is definitely a chance. If we are the model with adjust to compensate for that.

We have a methodology you can read. It makes it very clear how it works.

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 25

Nope. We are a bipartisan team. We’re sorry that data and stats is difficult for some (NDP partisans) to accept and deal with. Sad really.

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 25

Because the NDP are unpopular. Thanks

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 25

The juggling of seats continue between the majors but the LPC still holding onto a 185+ seat count going into the final weekend.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 192 (215)
CPC: 119 (86)
BQ: 24 (27)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 25, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 23

Favourable polls from Léger (A+) and Nanos (A) for the Liberal regain the seats lost from the Mainstreet (A-) polls that went CPC.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 195 (220)
CPC: 115 (84)
BQ: 22 (24)
NDP: 10 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 23, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 23

lol no

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 22

CPC takes two from the LPC in our latest update. But the Conservative vote continues to weaken nationwide meaning more is up for grabs.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 189 (218)
CPC: 122 (86)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 8 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 22, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 21

We continue to see tight races between the LPC, BQ and NDP resulting in a flip-flop of numbers. CPC number is still firm at 120.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 191 (213)
CPC: 120 (91)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 8 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 21, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 20

The two polls from Mainstreet that favour the CPC didn't really hurt the aggregate. Liberals up 2 since yesterday.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 194 (216)
CPC: 120 (90)
BQ: 22 (23)
NDP: 6 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 20, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 19

Are the Liberals dropping in the polls? Yes, slightly
Is that benefiting the CPC? No.

Polls always squeeze but the LPC is firmly ahead.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 192 (214)
CPC: 120 (90)
BQ: 22 (23)
NDP: 8 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 19, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

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SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 16

Sounds like your disputing the data. That’s exactly what you’re doing.

This is a simple logic and seems NDP partisans can’t process that logic, unfortunately. Let’s not ignore also that this has been a targeted campaign to discredit our work. You’re fitting that mold.

SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 16

The riding data is in the model. I don’t understand why this hard for you to understand.

SmartVoting.ca @smartvoting.ca · Apr 16

A visible vote split is starting to unfold across the country. The Bloc and the NDP have picked away at some Liberal leads in the country.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 197 (220)
CPC: 118 (87)
BQ: 18 (19)
NDP: 9 (14)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 16, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

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