Author | Lightnews

Reposted by Jonathan Vigh

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 1d

Major Hurricane Melissa makes a historic landfall near New Hope, Jamaica.

Reposted by Jonathan Vigh

Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 1d

One factor that supported Melissa reaching this record: an Argo float southeast of Jamaica shows a dramatic decrease in upper-level ocean temperature before (18 Oct) and after (28 Oct) the storm.

My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔

Plot of vertical temperature profiles measured by one Argo float from October 18 (solid black line, dot on map) and October 28 (dashed black line, star on map) in the top 120 meters of the ocean near Hurricane Melissa's track segment from October 27. That track segment is represented by the short dashed purple line on the inset map, and it's short due to Melissa's slow forward speed on that date.

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Reposted by Jonathan Vigh

Dr. Robin Tanamachi 🌪️ @tornatrix.bsky.social · 1d

Echoing colleagues: Think before you (re)post. #Melissa is about to impact a relatively poor part of Jamaica. I doubt we will know the true extent of the devastation for days or weeks.

Information vacuums fill with disinformation. Expect a lot of “breaking wind” on SM.

Map source: World Bank

Map of Jamaica showing percentage of population living in poverty in 2012, which is minimal near the coasts (a few %) and maximized in the hilly interior (~40%). There isn’t even a major highway running that far west. Map source: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/236781584080916414

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks to the brave crews of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Hurricane Hunters today for collecting this invaluable data. (Both were in the storm this morning, and given the severe turbulence, are backing each other up with radar obs, etc.)

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · 1d

The key caveat here is "observed", since planes often avoid sampling the worst part of the storm for safety reasons. I also allow for the possibility that I may have missed an observation somewhere. I will be doing more analysis this afternoon. Regardless, Melissa is one VERY intense hurricane.

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · 1d

Update #4: By the metric of observed maximum flight level winds at 700 mb, 10-sec average, preliminary data suggests that #Melissa is now the TOP Atlantic hurricane in the modern era of aircraft reconnaissance (since ~1977).

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · 1d

Update #3: #Melissa is now tied for 9th place for Atlantic hurricanes in the modern era, using the metric of observed maximum flight level winds @ 700 mb, 10-sec average.

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · 1d

By the metric of maximum sustained flight level winds, #Melissa, with 163 kt 700-mb 10-s flight level winds, has now eclipsed Milton, Doran, Hugo, Felix, and Ivan to move up to #9.

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Reposted by Jonathan Vigh

Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 1d

Y'all - this is literally insane. I am pretty sure that I have never seen automated satellite intensity estimates this high on an Atlantic hurricane. Dvorak T-numbers approaching 8.5 are almost always with west Pac supertyphoons. Graphic from UW-CIMSS.

Graphic from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS website showing the automated satellite intensity estimate for Melissa of 176 kt winds

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Reposted by Jonathan Vigh

Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 1d

The western end of Jamaica where #Melissa is projected to make landfall has the least well-built structures of anyplace on the island. Graphic is from a 2021 paper, "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica": www.researchgate.net/publication/...

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · 1d

This list is not guaranteed to be exhaustive (a storm or two could be missing). Maximum flight level winds were obtained from Vortex Data Messages (VDMs).

Data source: Archive of VDMs from 1989-2022: verif.rap.ucar.edu/tcdata/vorte...

Index of /tcdata/vortex/sources/v2.0.0/raw_VDMs_v2.0.0

verif.rap.ucar.edu

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · 1d

#Melissa, an extremely powerful and intense hurricane, has made it into the upper echelon of Atlantic hurricanes in the modern aircraft reconnaissance era, based on maximum flight level winds. At 161 kt, it is currently tied at #14 with Ivan (2004), Dorian (2019), and Milton (2024).

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Jeremy DeHart @jeremydehartwx.bsky.social · 2d

From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.

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Reposted by Jonathan Vigh

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 2d

The monster eye at the center of a still strengthening Hurricane Melissa.

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Reposted by Jonathan Vigh

Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 5d

Jamaica has low storm surge risk—not a lot of low-lying areas. An exception: Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport (built on fill), Soapberry Wastewater Treatment Plant, Portmore Mall, Jamworld Entertainment Center, the National Gallery, Petrojam Refinery, Caribbean Maritime University.

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · 21d

Just got my #novavax booster here in TN, thanks to
@publixofficial.bsky.social Pharmacy.

Had discussed with my doctor and got an Rx, but wasn't needed. Have asthma and that was enough. Called ahead to confirm availability and they had 1 dose left!

nuvaxovid.com/vaccine-loca...

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Reposted by Jonathan Vigh

Citizens' Impeachment @citizensimpeachment.com · Sep 8

If we had crossed paths with a serial child abuser, we simply would not have hand-drawn him a naked woman or given him a birthday card.

This does not seem difficult.

The Epstein files must be released, and Trump must be impeached. He is unfit.

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · Aug 29

As a #MarshallFire survivor, I'm very glad to see that #BoulderCounty is upgrading their sirens and expanding their use to a variety of hazards, including wildfires. Sirens are particularly helpful for people who are outdoors, like my wife and son were the day of the fire.

Press release from Boulder County about the coming upgrade to the county's outdoor warning sirens. Quote from the press release: "At the request of first responders, these sirens may be used for alerting affected areas during wildfires, floods, hazardous materials and other disasters," said Office of Disaster Management Director Mike Chard.

Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · Aug 28

“This is not about one official. It is about the systematic dismantling of public health institutions, the silencing of experts, and the dangerous politicization of science.” ~US Senator Patty Murray.

Dr. Monarez is standing up for science. Demand that Kennedy be fired.

www.cnn.com/2025/08/27/h...

CDC left leaderless after new Director Dr. Susan Monarez is ousted and other key officials follow | CNN

Dr. Susan Monarez, who was sworn in as director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 31, has been removed from the position, the White House said Wednesday.

www.cnn.com

Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · Aug 20

Update: The severe weather and flooding threats have passed. More light to moderate rains are expected, which should be beneficial to lawns and gardens that have gotten rather baked over the past week.

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · Aug 20

NWS Morristown has issued a #SevereThunderstormWarning for southwestern Hamilton County and parts of Marion county including #Chattanooga and other areas. Torrential rainfall and flooding is also possible. #TNwx

forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatx...

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · Aug 15

Update at 5:16 PM: Storms have passed through the Chattanooga area without too many impacts. The complex is propagating slowly south and a bit west from Sewanee through down through South Pittsburg and into N AL with heavy rain.

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · Aug 15

Heads up #Chattanooga and folks in the N AL/SE TN/N GA areas -- isolated to scattered flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening. For meteorological details, see:
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

#TNwx

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · Aug 13

Thankfully the latest round of storms has not been as heavy as yesterday's downpours. The rain at CHA began at around 12:25 PM yesterday. With the latest addition from today's rain, the airport appears to have reached an unholy 24-hour rainfall total of 6.66". Subject to change. #Chattanooga #TNwx

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Jonathan Vigh @skywatcher77.bsky.social · Aug 13

Given yesterday's extreme rainfall in #Chattanooga and #EastRidge, things could go downhill quite quickly.