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Rob Wood

Rob Wood

@robwoodecon.bsky.social

1.1K followers 98 following 110 posts

Chief UK Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

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Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Sep 12

UK inflation expectations are modestly deanchored.

5-year ahead expectations higher than when inflation was in double digits and the survey is biased vs. history down by a method change in 2020. Paging MPC.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 28

You've got to the love the UK CBI retailing survey. Volatile much? But for what it's worth, sales for the time of the year reach the strongest in 14 months in July.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 28

Pay slowdown this year is also mainly driven by firms passing NICS into weaker wages, rather than weak demand.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 28

UK payrolls driven by NICS rather than weak demand. Sectors with high share of part-time workers—whose employment costs rise most after NICS hike—and self-employment—opportunity to cut tax liability by switching from employee status—see payrolls most. Latter means payrolls exaggerates job falls.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 25

It isn't income-driven in consumer confidence. The most optimistic income group, and the one seeing smallest fall in confidence since election, is 50K plus, the age group with the biggest rise in optimism since election is 16-29.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 25

UK political views increasingly seem to be driving responses to consumer sentiment—a phenomenon seen for some surveys in the US too—making them a less reliable leading indicator.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

I think thats broadly right but huge difference between say -10k a month (still consistent with surveys) and -35k for monetary policy. Former is a correction, the latter a proper recession. While taking some of your points, I think weight of evidence points to smaller jobs falls than payrolls.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

Most of the improvement in LFS sample size had happened by the base, so on that basis there will be little bias in latest 3 on 3

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

Payrolls still overstating job growth relative to surveys and one of best performing models points to improvement. REC is one of the poorest performing surveys for forecasting job growth. Best surveys point to more like 15k falls in employees and DMP now suggests rises.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

Quite so, and its the latest data that is the key. Is employment falling or not. Payrolls says yes—although half as much as payrolls said a month ago so far this year—WfJ and LFS say no. LFS would be lower absent sample changes but unlikely to be showing falling jobs like payrolls.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

Or more likely the LFS would have been stronger in 2023 and 2024. If it is now representative, and used to be in 2019, the change over the period in the chart is fine.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

yes and that ONS comment was on data to March, so we already have 2 of the 6 months of estimates, and its not like its a switch that goes from biased to unbiased. The previous four months of data will also have been cohering. Besides, whats wrong with WfJ too?

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

The ONS say the low LFS vs PAYE in 2023 was due to poor sampling and LFS *was* catching up. ONS say that process has worked through by now (see below). Question remains, do you believe payrolls more, which were just revised job falls so far this year in *half*.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

More volatile yes, not upward biased

In any case, what's wrong with WfJ?

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

Which do you believe? Payrolls that just got massively revised, or the other two series which are also revision prone and in the case of the LFS not firing on all cylinders yet.

Jobs falling or rising solidly?....What the MPC would give for accurate data.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 17

Surprise, surprise, UK payrolls were revised up bang in line with their typical pattern. The question is, why would anyone believe the dodgy first estimates from this series showing tanking jobs? With a typical revision to June data, job falls are easing now.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jul 7

Shall we call it the estate agents' PMI?

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jun 4

Here's the thing about the UK PMI. The higher uncertainty goes the worse an indicator of growth the PMI becomes. Policy uncertainty was nearly 5 standard deviations above normal in April/May, so the PMI is giving a far too pessimistic steer.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Jun 2

Cautious consumers you say? Retail sales growing the fastest in 3 years and now liquid asset accumulation dropping sharply. For my money the ONS saving rate data are wrong—they often revise it down sharply. Consumers will keep GDP growth ticking along.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · May 21

The MPC will struggle to cut twice more this year after inflation surged to 3.5%, well above consensus of 3.3% but close to our call of 3.6%. Administered prices drove the surge, and there was a small Easter boost, but underlying pressures are stubborn. 'Skips' are likely now.

Reposted by Rob Wood

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Mar 28

It's difficult to reconcile the data around the cautious consumer - not least another pick up in the savings ratio - with the strength in the retail sales. There are probably good reasons to put more weight on either set of data, but the discrepancy does muddy the true picture of consumer activity

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Mar 28

The current economic conjuncture is hard enough to diagnose without being unable to trust the data. The saving rate will make good headlines today, but be very wary about data held together with double-sided sticking tape. Those Blue Peter creations didn't last long either.

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Mar 28

The saving rate depends on measuring income accurately, but that is infected by the unreliable LFS jobs data. Statisticians put sticking plasters over the problems by using payrolls to 'adjust' income, but how much should we trust that after PPI and trade data had mistakes?(7/n)

Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · Mar 28

Back in early 2023 the headlines would have reported a household saving rate surging to 9.3% in Q4 2022, from 6.8% in Q1 2022... now the ONS think the saving rate *fell* in 2022, to 6.5% in Q4 from 7.0% in Q1. From rocketing to falling is quite some change in view (6/n)