Richard Urwin
@rickx1.bsky.social
41 followers 530 following 18 posts
Macro stuff, philosophy, Crystal Palace
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rickx1.bsky.social
Yes. Everything goes down by one fret, so your previous E chord (022100 fingering) becomes an E flat. So one fret up is an E. Why bother? Lower tuning was more consistent with JH’s voice (better low than high), made it easier to bend heavy gauge strings, and he got a better tone - more sustain.
rickx1.bsky.social
It’s possible that this tells us more about Justin Webb than anything else. His comments made around that assertion were bizarre.
rickx1.bsky.social
May depend on whether savers are tax payers or not, and which tax band they are in. Post tax real interest rates for higher rate payers likely to be negative, but maybe positive for non tax payers. I guess the first group is much larger.
rickx1.bsky.social
Most defence stocks in the UK already up 50-60% so far this year. Rheinmetall in Germany up over 200%. So significant increase in defence spending is priced in. On absence of widespread gains today, you can go for ‘market doesn’t believe 5%’ or ‘5% was already in the price’
rickx1.bsky.social
In the 1980s, when Sheffield was known as ‘The People’s Republic of South Yorkshire’, you would have been entirely correct.
rickx1.bsky.social
I did a little project last year which took the ten largest UK companies by market cap back to their origins. The average year of foundation was 1845, and the ‘youngest’ company was founded in 1913. The ‘oldest’ was born in 1715.
rickx1.bsky.social
Thanks, nice explanation
rickx1.bsky.social
That’s a bit hard on Martin Bell
rickx1.bsky.social
I can remember doing this in an undergraduate degree in 1980. Seemed on the right lines even then.
rickx1.bsky.social
‘Barbarian’ tribes were poorer than the Roman Empire when they overran it; Vikings defeated richer Kingdoms; so did Ghengis Khan; so did Tamerlane; and the American colonies; and Japan defeated richer Russia in 1905; and the Americans lost in Vietnam; etc - GDP does not determine military outcomes.
rickx1.bsky.social
Basically discounted short rates (up to about 6 years) are a bit lower, say 20-30 bps. Longer term rates are higher. 20 year ~5% vs ~4.8%. So steeper curve makes it hard to generalise.
rickx1.bsky.social
Hopefully he would choose the UK
rickx1.bsky.social
Interesting 50:50 ‘left’ ‘right’ split if you aggregate the votes
rickx1.bsky.social
Endlessly interesting
rickx1.bsky.social
Even less of a non-event in terms of differential with US yields